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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4th or lower | 100% | +1 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 1st hottest | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 2nd hottest | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 3rd hottest | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 276d | 0x955c…990f | 3rd hottest | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,167 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 276d | 0x955c…990f | 4th or lower | BuyYes>99¢ | $13,706 | +$15 +0.1% | 4 |
| 276d |  aenews22 fills | 3rd hottest | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,716 | +$11 +0.1% | 4 |
| 276d | zasddhd6345bh | 4th or lower | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,557 | +$18 +0.7% | 4 |
| 276d | Crushing-Patentee | 4th or lower | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,625 | +$16 +0.6% | 4 |
| 276d | abcxgt3454fsdghsd | 4th or lower | BuyYes100¢ | $2,563 | +$13 +0.5% | 4 |
| 276d | hzxgd5wvxas | 4th or lower | BuyYes100¢ | $2,628 | +$13 +0.5% | 4 |
| 276d | blunderbot | 3rd hottest | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,276 | −$13 −1.0% | — |
| 277d | Brave-Misunderstand | 3rd hottest | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,557 | +$10 +0.4% | 4 |
| 277d | Knobby-Zombie | 3rd hottest | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,617 | +$11 +0.4% | 4 |
| 277d | zxfxgtw4thfd | 3rd hottest | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,617 | +$11 +0.4% | 4 |
| 277d | xbgxsd566w4fg | 3rd hottest | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,557 | +$10 +0.4% | 4 |
| 279d |  flow-trader-at-optiver | 3rd hottest | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,008 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 280d |  ApeBoy | 2nd hottest | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,293 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 282d | aviato | 4th or lower | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,980 | −$20 −0.7% | — |
| 284d |  cookiejar2 fills | 4th or lower | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,960 | +$68 +1.1% | 4 |
| 284d | aviato | 4th or lower | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,560 | +$45 +2.9% | 4 |
| 285d | cookiejar | 3rd hottest | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,183 | +$16 +1.3% | 4 |
| 285d | flow-trader-at-optiver | 1st hottest | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,293 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 285d | flow-trader-at-optiver | 2nd hottest | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,291 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 307d | russell1103202 fills | 4th or lower | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $3,118 | +$242 +7.8% | 4 |
pepii27,406 sharesThis market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for December 2025 versus the data points available for all other Decembers on record. Note: If December 2025 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Dec" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for December 2025 is provided by NASA by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 4th or lower means the market gives it about 100%.