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Every Polymarket buy of $5,000 or more from the last day, scored 0 to 100 for how unusual it looks for what could be known when it was placed: a big stake at long odds, on a question a few people could know the answer to first, large next to the market's whole day, from a new account, close to the end. Most big trades score low. The ones that don't are worth a second look - and are sometimes just lucky.
The five add up to at most 100: low is 40 and under, medium 41 to 70 and high above 70. A sports bet scores nothing for long odds and stops at 50. On crypto markets the dominance, account and timing factors count a quarter, and all three fade out on buys above 70¢, where there was little left to win. Sales and Kalshi trades aren't scored: a sale says nothing about what the seller knew, and Kalshi's public trades carry no account. The five factors and their ceilings follow the insider score Polywhaler publishes; the formulas inside them are this site's own. A high score is not an accusation.
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (taker fills of $5,000 or more in the last day, one wallet's fills in one outcome added up), its Gamma API for each market's 24-hour volume and end date, and its public profiles for when an account was opened. Refreshed every minute.
