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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 115-139 | 62% | +20 pts | — | 60¢ · 63¢ (4¢) | $71.1K | in 3h |
| 90-114 | 37% | −6 pts | — | 36¢ · 37¢ (1¢) | $102K | in 3h |
| 140-164 | 2% | −9 pts | — | 1¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $107K | in 3h |
| 165-189 | <1% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | $126K | in 3h |
| 190-214 | <1% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | $34.3K | in 3h |
| 215-239 | <1% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | $14.5K | in 3h |
| 240+ | <1% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | $13.9K | in 3h |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 140-164 | BuyNo99¢ → 98¢ | $1,789 | −$17 −1.0% | 20 |
| 4h | welcometowinnercircle3 fills | 165-189 | BuyNo>99¢ | $60,848 | +$7 +0.0% | 20 |
| 6h | Intelligent-Tax | 115-139 | BuyNo82¢ → 39¢ | $1,640 | −$870 −53% | 26 |
| 8h | livepo1y2 fills | 140-164 | BuyNo98¢ | $4,744 | +$3 +0.1% | 21 |
| 9h | Intelligent-Tax | 140-164 | BuyNo97¢ → 98¢ | $9,670 | +$175 +1.8% | 22 |
| 12h |  upont | 190-214 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,393 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 13h | faffafafa | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,530 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 18h |  TweetPulse.Live | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,033 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 21h | upont | 165-189 | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $8,529 | +$95 +1.1% | 21 |
| 21h |  Mei-ji | 165-189 | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $2,470 | +$28 +1.1% | 20 |
| 1d | CakeBake2 fills | 240+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,516 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
Mei-ji8,255 shares
Sugarina4,537 sharesTweetPulse.Live4,042 shares
Kaiji1233,506 shares
AndreaPirlo2,873 shares
BigMaccyG3,404 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 15 12:00 PM ET to October 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 62¢ for 115-139 means the market gives it about 62%.