| US imports Russian diesel by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 14,056 | 41¢ → 94¢ | $13,227 | +$7,517 +132% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 22,271 | 32¢ → 40¢ | $8,797 | +$1,764 +25% |
| No one announced as next James Bond?Ends in 75d | Yes | 25,166 | 21¢ → 33¢ | $8,368 | +$3,144 +60% |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 75d | Yes | 27,948 | 37¢ → 27¢ | $7,644 | −$2,647 −26% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 9,585 | 12¢ → 77¢ | $7,333 | +$6,182 +538% |
| Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 75d | No | 28,653 | 35¢ → 22¢ | $6,160 | −$3,933 −39% |
| Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?Ends in 75d | Yamal | 12,976 | 50¢ → 45¢ | $5,774 | −$739 −11% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 19,466 | 18¢ → 28¢ | $5,353 | +$1,944 +57% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 11,276 | 51¢ → 43¢ | $4,792 | −$972 −17% |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Ends in 7d | No | 9,859 | 35¢ → 40¢ | $3,894 | +$456 +13% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 6,000 | 52¢ → 53¢ | $3,150 | +$30 +1.0% |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?Ends in 8d | Yes | 8,728 | 40¢ → 36¢ | $3,142 | −$335 −9.6% |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 2,564 | 64¢ → 95¢ | $2,423 | +$782 +48% |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?Ends ended | No | 3,714 | 40¢ → 56¢ | $2,071 | +$586 +39% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?Ends in 8d | No | 2,399 | 52¢ → 72¢ | $1,715 | +$476 +38% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Ends in 8d | Yes | 4,171 | 34¢ → 41¢ | $1,689 | +$269 +19% |
| Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 8,978 | 17¢ → 16¢ | $1,392 | −$135 −8.8% |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Ends in 75d | No | 5,200 | 49¢ → 25¢ | $1,300 | −$1,270 −49% |
| Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 75d | Yes | 30,250 | 2¢ → 4¢ | $1,225 | +$639 +109% |
| Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 7,799 | 17¢ → 16¢ | $1,209 | −$115 −8.7% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | No | 2,280 | 57¢ → 53¢ | $1,197 | −$109 −8.3% |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?Ends in 8d | Yes | 1,496 | 35¢ → 64¢ | $950 | +$424 +81% |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 13,027 | 7¢ → 7¢ | $847 | −$25 −2.8% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 4,196 | 7¢ → 20¢ | $818 | +$537 +191% |
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 75d | Yes | 21,706 | 2¢ → 3¢ | $705 | +$323 +84% |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 11,682 | 5¢ → 6¢ | $654 | +$59 +9.9% |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 4,367 | 26¢ → 14¢ | $633 | −$485 −43% |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 3,571 | 58¢ → 18¢ | $625 | −$1,446 −70% |
| Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 75d | Yes | 2,213 | 31¢ → 25¢ | $542 | −$138 −20% |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?Ends ended | Yes | 1,008 | 35¢ → 52¢ | $519 | +$164 +46% |
| Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 75d | No | 20,018 | 3¢ → 3¢ | $510 | −$175 −26% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 4,676 | 46¢ → 10¢ | $468 | −$1,663 −78% |
| Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 75d | Yes | 90,978 | 3¢ → <1¢ | $409 | −$2,470 −86% |
| Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?Ends in 74d | Yes | 1,314 | 48¢ → 28¢ | $361 | −$267 −42% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 3,200 | 28¢ → 11¢ | $352 | −$541 −61% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 11d | Yes | 97,469 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $341 | −$341 −50% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 352 | 48¢ → 75¢ | $264 | +$95 +56% |
| Will Rodri finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,955 | 15¢ → 12¢ | $225 | −$78 −26% |
| Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 75d | Yes | 37,219 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $167 | −$313 −65% |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 6,027 | 2¢ → 3¢ | $166 | +$24 +17% |
| Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 7,927 | 2¢ → 2¢ | $163 | +$9 +5.5% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?Ends in 8d | Yes | 10,866 | 1¢ → 1¢ | $147 | −$1 −0.5% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 11d | Yes | 97,469 | <1¢ → <1¢ | $146 | −$244 −62% |
| Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 707 | 24¢ → 21¢ | $145 | −$23 −13% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 11d | Yes | 30,000 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $105 | −$105 −50% |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 3,324 | 3¢ → 3¢ | $88 | −$11 −11% |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?Ends in 75d | Yes | 2,654 | 2¢ → 3¢ | $77 | +$11 +17% |
| Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 75d | No | 764 | 3¢ → 6¢ | $47 | +$22 +88% |
| Will over 64 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?Ends in 76d | Yes | 868 | 10¢ → 5¢ | $41 | −$44 −52% |
| Will over 62 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?Ends in 76d | Yes | 777 | 24¢ → 4¢ | $32 | −$158 −83% |
| Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 75d | Yes | 11,632 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $29 | −$35 −55% |
| Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 75d | Yes | 11,632 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $29 | −$35 −55% |
| Will Discord’s market cap be between $11B and $14B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | Yes | 292 | 17¢ → 10¢ | $28 | −$21 −43% |
| Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 6,050 | <1¢ → <1¢ | $18 | +$6 +50% |
| Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 13d | Yes | 11,632 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $17 | −$47 −73% |
| Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 75d | Yes | 11,632 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $17 | −$47 −73% |
| Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 34,759 | <1¢ → <1¢ | $17 | −$17 −50% |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 2,121 | <1¢ → 1¢ | $12 | +$10 +451% |
| Will Discord’s market cap be $20B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | Yes | 315 | 8¢ → 3¢ | $11 | −$13 −56% |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?Ends in 43d | No | 16 | 32¢ → 44¢ | $7 | +$2 +36% |
| Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 75d | Yes | 11,632 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $6 | −$58 −91% |
| Will Luis Diaz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 13d | Yes | 11,632 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $6 | −$58 −91% |
| Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 75d | Yes | 11,632 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $6 | −$58 −91% |
| Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 75d | Yes | 11,632 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $6 | −$58 −91% |
| Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 75d | Yes | 11,632 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $6 | −$58 −91% |
| Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 13d | Yes | 11,632 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $6 | −$58 −91% |
| Will Lautaro Martinez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 13d | Yes | 11,632 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $6 | −$58 −91% |
| Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 13d | Yes | 11,632 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $6 | −$58 −91% |
| Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 13d | Yes | 11,632 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $6 | −$58 −91% |
| Will the International Association of Judges win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 4,947 | 16¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$775 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 3,580 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$102 −100% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 2,151 | 31¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$667 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,693 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$172 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,419 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$185 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 3,239 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$188 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 5,312 | 11¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$568 −100% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,048 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$81 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 5,000 | 0¢ → 0¢ | $0 | $0 0.0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 9,199 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$516 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 16,556 | 15¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2,446 −100% |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 745 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$18 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 7,030 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$329 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 9,293 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$555 −100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 10,000 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,300 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,848 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$158 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,977 | 15¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$293 −100% |
| Will Chow Hang-tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 3,165 | 36¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,126 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 918 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$35 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 16,409 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$61 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,036 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$25 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 3,812 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$240 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,876 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$97 −100% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 5 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 7,491 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$267 −100% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 5 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 11,632 | 0¢ → 0¢ | $0 | $0 0.0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 5,000 | 0¢ → 0¢ | $0 | $0 0.0% |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 8,147 | 24¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,940 −100% |
