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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 320-339 | 100% | +50 pts | +100 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <20 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 20-39 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-59 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60-79 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 100-119 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 120-139 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-159 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 160-179 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 180-199 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 200-219 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 220-239 | 0% | −1 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240-259 | 0% | 0 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 260-279 | 0% | −1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 280-299 | 0% | −8 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300-319 | 0% | −34 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 340-359 | 0% | −22 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 360-379 | 0% | −5 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 380-399 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400-419 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 420-439 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 440-459 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 460-479 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 480-499 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 500+ | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53d |  upont | 380-399 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,709 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 53d |  frandoes | 320-339 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,631 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 53d | sazzaa | 320-339 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,752 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 53d |  Prexpect2 fills | 320-339 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,544 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 53d | beatyesterday5 fills | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $23,070 | +$87 +0.4% | 20 |
| 53d | ElonSimp | 320-339 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,166 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 53d |  guandaBaoFu2 fills | 320-339 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,059 | +$38 +1.2% | 20 |
| 53d | beatyesterday3 fills | 320-339 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,044 | +$24 +0.2% | 20 |
| 53d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 340-359 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,164 | +$13 +0.4% | 20 |
| 53d | yoyoyoyo- | 320-339 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,037 | +$8 +0.4% | 20 |
| 53d | RootWoot | 340-359 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,681 | −$17 −1.0% | — |
| 53d | Amir100012 fills | 320-339 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,900 | +$66 +1.3% | 20 |
| 53d |  y111m11 | 320-339 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,138 | +$66 +3.1% | 21 |
| 53d | pingfan666 | 320-339 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,018 | +$36 +3.5% | 21 |
| 53d | Actual-Ladle | 340-359 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,450 | +$57 +2.3% | 21 |
| 53d |  PredictionYogi | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,680 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 53d |  Boss7 | 360-379 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,402 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 53d | nole-ksum | 360-379 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,040 | −$9 −0.9% | — |
| 53d | mamai | 320-339 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,205 | +$87 +7.2% | 22 |
| 53d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,663 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 53d | CakeBake | 360-379 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,348 | +$9 +0.7% | 20 |
| 53d | CakeBake | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 53d | Intelligent-Tax | 320-339 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,180 | +$148 +13% | 23 |
| 53d | suifeng6682 fills | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,074 | +$12 +0.4% | 20 |
| 53d | pingfan666 | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,543 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 53d | Bankrupt-Loser | 380-399 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,820 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 |
| 53d | Prexpect | 300-319 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,891 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 53d | sazzaa2 fills | 300-319 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,933 | +$32 +0.7% | 20 |
| 53d | BinaryBaron | 380-399 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,413 | +$7 +0.5% | 20 |
| 53d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,584 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 53d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 420-439 | BuyNo>99¢ | $14,436 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 53d | GOTOPNO1 | 420-439 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,029 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 53d | anon.1980.1232 fills | 360-379 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $6,729 | +$220 +3.3% | 21 |
| 53d | dafei8882 fills | 380-399 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,525 | +$19 +0.7% | 20 |
| 53d | Boss7 | 420-439 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,808 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 53d | Actual-Ladle | 300-319 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,399 | +$53 +2.2% | 21 |
| 53d | BBchike | 340-359 | SellNo65¢ → 100¢ | $1,177 | −$636 −54% | — |
| 53d | carboyant | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,085 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 53d | frandoes | 320-339 | BuyYes56¢ → 100¢ | $1,952 | +$1,519 +78% | 28 |
| 53d | venezuelain | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,466 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 53d |  Mei-ji | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,465 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 54d | upont | 280-299 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,339 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 54d |  stauffen | 340-359 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,370 | +$170 +12% | 22 |
| 54d | dafei888 | 500+ | SellNo>99¢ | $4,226 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 54d | suifeng668 | 500+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 54d | Boss7 | 400-419 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 54d |  decacepa | 500+ | SellNo>99¢ | $3,793 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 54d | Boss7 | 440-459 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,387 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 54d | wwv | 280-299 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,018 | +$31 +1.0% | 20 |
| 54d | bipbipbop | 500+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,429 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 54d |  ElonSpam2 fills | 500+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $22,824 | +$23 +0.1% | 20 |
| 54d | manuelarias | 280-299 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$62 +5.2% | 21 |
| 54d | 0xf14e…61732 fills | 280-299 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,693 | +$298 +8.1% | 21 |
| 54d | ElonSpam2 fills | 260-279 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,903 | +$20 +0.1% | 20 |
| 55d | Boss7 | 260-279 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,999 | +$17 +0.6% | 20 |
| 55d |  Cloverince | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,191 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 55d | lIllIlllIlIl | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,392 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 55d | Simmelariii | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 55d | NeoOracle | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,156 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 55d |  LinaBell🦊2 fills | 240-259 | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,323 | +$20 +0.1% | 20 |
dz1ft36,092 shares
0xMahes500 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 18 12:00 PM ET to August 25, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 320-339 means the market gives it about 100%.