| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | No | 13,423 | 54¢ → 77¢ | $10,269 | +$3,066 +43% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | No | 6,009 | 77¢ → 91¢ | $5,438 | +$792 +17% |
| No one announced as next James Bond?Ends in 75d | Yes | 14,393 | 25¢ → 34¢ | $4,850 | +$1,267 +35% |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 5,415 | 66¢ → 76¢ | $4,088 | +$530 +15% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | Yes | 4,594 | 55¢ → 77¢ | $3,526 | +$1,002 +40% |
| Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?Ends in 106d | No | 4,618 | 67¢ → 73¢ | $3,348 | +$254 +8.2% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 4,680 | 48¢ → 71¢ | $3,344 | +$1,116 +50% |
| Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Ends in 806d | Yes | 14,925 | 33¢ → 21¢ | $3,060 | −$1,866 −38% |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 2,743 | 65¢ → 97¢ | $2,668 | +$885 +50% |
| Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?Ends in 7d | No | 3,218 | 67¢ → 79¢ | $2,526 | +$375 +17% |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | No | 3,922 | 49¢ → 50¢ | $1,941 | +$20 +1.0% |
| Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?Ends in 165d | No | 1,827 | 86¢ → 96¢ | $1,745 | +$174 +11% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 14,368 | 39¢ → 12¢ | $1,652 | −$3,883 −70% |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 1,613 | 94¢ → 96¢ | $1,548 | +$35 +2.3% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 1,973 | 58¢ → 78¢ | $1,529 | +$376 +33% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Ends in 78d | No | 1,589 | 32¢ → 94¢ | $1,486 | +$983 +195% |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 1,585 | 57¢ → 90¢ | $1,427 | +$522 +58% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 2,293 | 56¢ → 61¢ | $1,387 | +$92 +7.1% |
| Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | No | 1,303 | 96¢ → 98¢ | $1,283 | +$28 +2.2% |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 1,667 | 70¢ → 76¢ | $1,258 | +$92 +7.9% |
| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Ends in 806d | Yes | 4,652 | 14¢ → 27¢ | $1,233 | +$581 +89% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Ends in 752d | Yes | 15,000 | 2¢ → 8¢ | $1,193 | +$831 +230% |
| Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Ends in 74d | Yes | 1,193 | 16¢ → 95¢ | $1,127 | +$934 +485% |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 1,650 | 52¢ → 65¢ | $1,064 | +$214 +25% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Ends in 52d | Yes | 1,163 | 57¢ → 76¢ | $878 | +$215 +32% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Ends in 106d | Yes | 1,471 | 32¢ → 56¢ | $831 | +$360 +77% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 936 | 52¢ → 88¢ | $819 | +$330 +68% |
| Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?Ends in 75d | No | 1,221 | 49¢ → 67¢ | $819 | +$221 +37% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 1,104 | 70¢ → 73¢ | $800 | +$25 +3.2% |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Ends in 106d | No | 1,429 | 37¢ → 56¢ | $793 | +$264 +50% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 1,134 | 24¢ → 64¢ | $725 | +$448 +161% |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Ends in 531d | No | 816 | 76¢ → 84¢ | $687 | +$71 +11% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Ends in 43d | Yes | 960 | 60¢ → 69¢ | $658 | +$78 +14% |
| Kash Patel out by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 791 | 37¢ → 82¢ | $645 | +$354 +121% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 3,501 | 55¢ → 17¢ | $578 | −$1,357 −70% |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 863 | 68¢ → 67¢ | $574 | −$14 −2.4% |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 183d | No | 1,054 | 72¢ → 54¢ | $564 | −$196 −26% |
| Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?Ends in 91d | Yes | 781 | 63¢ → 72¢ | $562 | +$70 +14% |
| Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Ends in 531d | Yes | 667 | 85¢ → 82¢ | $543 | −$23 −4.1% |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 697 | 48¢ → 75¢ | $519 | +$182 +54% |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 943 | 57¢ → 55¢ | $514 | −$23 −4.2% |
| Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 2,463 | 19¢ → 20¢ | $480 | +$12 +2.6% |
| Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,734 | 19¢ → 26¢ | $442 | +$108 +32% |
| Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 896 | 50¢ → 47¢ | $421 | −$23 −5.1% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 438 | 57¢ → 93¢ | $408 | +$157 +63% |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 183d | Yes | 3,413 | 1¢ → 12¢ | $396 | +$369 +1385% |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 183d | Yes | 3,413 | 1¢ → 12¢ | $393 | +$366 +1372% |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,913 | 37¢ → 21¢ | $392 | −$313 −44% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 753 | 44¢ → 47¢ | $354 | +$24 +7.3% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?Ends in 165d | Yes | 588 | 71¢ → 57¢ | $338 | −$77 −19% |
| Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 400 | 76¢ → 84¢ | $334 | +$30 +9.9% |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Ends in 8d | No | 2,873 | 15¢ → 12¢ | $330 | −$91 −22% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 402 | 63¢ → 82¢ | $328 | +$76 +30% |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 10d | No | 459 | 44¢ → 69¢ | $314 | +$111 +54% |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 1,087 | 36¢ → 28¢ | $310 | −$77 −20% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,220 | 18¢ → 24¢ | $287 | +$67 +31% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 2,245 | 36¢ → 13¢ | $281 | −$532 −65% |
| Will Trump meet with Javier Milei by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 271 | 82¢ → 99¢ | $268 | +$46 +21% |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 183d | Yes | 1,504 | 1¢ → 18¢ | $263 | +$251 +2140% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Ends in 752d | Yes | 1,248 | 20¢ → 21¢ | $262 | +$14 +5.5% |
| Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 284 | 70¢ → 92¢ | $260 | +$61 +31% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | No | 447 | 46¢ → 57¢ | $257 | +$51 +25% |
| Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 540 | 44¢ → 47¢ | $254 | +$14 +5.7% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?Ends in 82d | No | 258 | 83¢ → 96¢ | $248 | +$34 +16% |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Ends in 135d | No | 1,153 | 57¢ → 21¢ | $236 | −$419 −64% |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 235 | 92¢ → >99¢ | $234 | +$18 +8.1% |
| Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Ends in 372d | Yes | 750 | 28¢ → 30¢ | $221 | +$14 +6.5% |
| Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government?Ends in 255d | Yes | 1,334 | 25¢ → 17¢ | $220 | −$114 −34% |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 1,539 | 14¢ → 14¢ | $219 | +$1 +0.4% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseEnds in 17d | Yes | 2,231 | 14¢ → 9¢ | $190 | −$126 −40% |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Ends in 7d | Yes | 309 | 53¢ → 61¢ | $187 | +$24 +15% |
| Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?Ends in 42d | Yes | 476 | 15¢ → 38¢ | $180 | +$107 +146% |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 185 | 73¢ → 97¢ | $179 | +$44 +33% |
| Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?Ends in 95d | Yes | 280 | 28¢ → 61¢ | $171 | +$91 +114% |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,238 | 61¢ → 14¢ | $167 | −$593 −78% |
| Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?Ends in 165d | No | 767 | 22¢ → 21¢ | $159 | −$8 −4.8% |
| Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Ends in 8d | Yes | 1,361 | 27¢ → 12¢ | $156 | −$204 −57% |
| Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Ends in 18d | No | 2,597 | 23¢ → 6¢ | $156 | −$442 −74% |
| Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 718 | 23¢ → 22¢ | $154 | −$14 −8.3% |
| Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be less than 150m by October 31?Ends in 13d | No | 153 | 57¢ → >99¢ | $153 | +$66 +75% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | No | 357 | 72¢ → 42¢ | $148 | −$109 −42% |
| Will Microsoft launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 208 | 76¢ → 69¢ | $143 | −$16 −9.9% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?Ends in 8h | No | 139 | 28¢ → 100¢ | $138 | +$99 +253% |
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 183d | Yes | 3,413 | 1¢ → 4¢ | $126 | +$100 +374% |
| Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,238 | 11¢ → 10¢ | $124 | −$7 −5.1% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 10d | Yes | 894 | 4¢ → 14¢ | $121 | +$89 +278% |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?Ends in 106d | No | 174 | 62¢ → 66¢ | $114 | +$6 +5.6% |
| Will Charlie Crist win the St. Petersburg mayoral election?Ends ended | No | 1,136 | 12¢ → 10¢ | $114 | −$23 −17% |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | No | 326 | 8¢ → 35¢ | $112 | +$86 +331% |
| Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?Ends in 42d | No | 271 | 51¢ → 42¢ | $112 | −$26 −19% |
| Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 402 | 21¢ → 27¢ | $107 | +$24 +29% |
| Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 140 | 28¢ → 69¢ | $97 | +$57 +142% |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?Ends in 806d | No | 139 | 28¢ → 65¢ | $90 | +$51 +130% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 1,038 | 37¢ → 9¢ | $88 | −$300 −77% |
| Will Rosa María Bayardo Cabrera win the 2027 Colima Governor Election?Ends in 232d | No | 512 | 51¢ → 17¢ | $87 | −$175 −67% |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Ends in 53d | No | 385 | 22¢ → 23¢ | $87 | +$2 +2.3% |
| Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?Ends in 17d | No | 109 | 60¢ → 76¢ | $82 | +$17 +26% |
| Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Ends in 74d | No | 125 | 60¢ → 66¢ | $82 | +$7 +9.2% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 11d | Yes | 562 | 29¢ → 14¢ | $76 | −$87 −53% |
| Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 680 | 6¢ → 11¢ | $75 | +$36 +95% |
