Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 79% | +2 pts | +20 pts | 78¢ · 80¢ (2¢) | $2.71K | in 136d |
| 2 | 19% | −2 pts | −20 pts | 18¢ · 20¢ (2¢) | $1.34K | in 136d |
| 3 | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $338 | in 136d |
| 4 | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $5 | in 136d |
| 5 | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $5 | in 136d |
| 6 or lower | <1% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | $5 | in 74d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | russell11032015 fills | 1 | BuyYes56¢ → 79¢ | $34,752 | +$13,844 +40% | 24 |
| 3d | supersmard | 2 | SellYes29¢ → 19¢ | $1,052 | +$365 +35% | — |
| 10d | Corny-Hyphenation2 fills | 1 | SellYes66¢ → 79¢ | $3,479 | −$684 −20% | — |
| 12d | balerinacapuchina4 fills | 1 | BuyYes71¢ → 79¢ | $10,844 | +$1,303 +12% | 24 |
| 12d | Corny-Hyphenation | 1 | BuyYes67¢ → 79¢ | $1,236 | +$221 +18% | 24 |
| 12d | flawfence | 2 | BuyYes32¢ → 19¢ | $1,155 | −$469 −41% | 24 |
| 12d | donthackme | 6 or lower | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,499 | $0 0.0% | 4 |
| 12d | donthackme | 3 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,497 | −$1 −0.1% | 4 |
| 12d | donthackme | 4 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,497 | $0 0.0% | 4 |
| 12d | donthackme | 5 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,499 | −$1 −0.1% | 4 |
| 12d | Orion96 | 2 | BuyYes28¢ → 19¢ | $1,200 | −$386 −32% | 25 |
| 17d | Pole | 5 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,501 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 25d | Pole | 5 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,505 | −$2 −0.1% | 4 |
| 26d | russell110320 | 2 | BuyNo75¢ → 81¢ | $5,070 | +$406 +8.0% | 21 |
| 39d | singularityman | 1 | BuyYes72¢ → 79¢ | $1,336 | +$130 +9.7% | 23 |
| 46d | arbandy | 1 | BuyYes76¢ → 79¢ | $1,799 | +$71 +3.9% | 20 |
| 85d | Orion963 fills | 1 | BuyNo61¢ → 21¢ | $5,300 | −$3,487 −66% | 24 |
| 89d | flawfence3 fills | 1 | BuyYes37¢ → 79¢ | $9,698 | +$11,218 +116% | 30 |
| 90d | flawfence | 3 | BuyNo98¢ → >99¢ | $2,167 | +$31 +1.4% | 5 |
| 96d | flawfence | 2 | BuyNo37¢ → 81¢ | $3,839 | +$4,457 +116% | 27 |
| 131d | russell110320 | 1 | SellYes31¢ → 79¢ | $2,372 | −$3,673 −155% | — |
| 160d | i18z | 5 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,113 | +$3 +0.3% | 4 |
| 160d | i18z | 4 | BuyNo97¢ → >99¢ | $1,089 | +$27 +2.5% | 6 |
| 160d | i18z | 6 or lower | BuyNo98¢ → >99¢ | $1,094 | +$22 +2.0% | 5 |
| 160d |  gopfan23 fills | 2 | BuyYes42¢ → 19¢ | $5,687 | −$3,093 −54% | 27 |
| 162d | SS1232 fills | 1 | BuyYes38¢ → 79¢ | $3,372 | +$3,666 +109% | 27 |
| 186d | Railcool | 1 | BuyYes34¢ → 79¢ | $7,346 | +$9,722 +132% | 30 |
| 186d | Railcool | 2 | BuyYes50¢ → 19¢ | $1,896 | −$1,175 −62% | 24 |
| 188d | fleetv | 4 | SellNo91¢ → >99¢ | $1,108 | −$102 −9.2% | — |
| 190d | troim | 2 | BuyYes54¢ → 19¢ | $1,611 | −$1,041 −65% | 24 |
| 198d | gopfan25 fills | 3 | BuyNo90¢ → >99¢ | $15,763 | +$1,702 +11% | 11 |
| 202d | th2 | 1 | BuyNo77¢ → 21¢ | $1,259 | −$916 −73% | 19 |
| 202d | affairLonely | 3 | SellNo90¢ → >99¢ | $1,474 | −$152 −10% | — |
| 202d | attackPhysical2 fills | 3 | SellNo90¢ → >99¢ | $2,539 | −$266 −10% | — |
| 202d | attackPhysical2 fills | 3 | BuyNo90¢ → >99¢ | $2,595 | +$272 +10% | 10 |
| 202d | sustain762 | 3 | SellNo91¢ → >99¢ | $1,066 | −$108 −10% | — |
| 202d | exilefz96 | 3 | SellNo91¢ → >99¢ | $1,178 | −$119 −10% | — |
| 202d | recall-slender2 fills | 3 | SellNo91¢ → >99¢ | $2,633 | −$269 −10% | — |
| 202d | exilefz96 | 3 | BuyNo91¢ → >99¢ | $1,167 | +$119 +10% | 10 |
| 202d | vastip16 | 3 | SellNo91¢ → >99¢ | $1,151 | −$118 −10% | — |
| 202d | depthCherry | 3 | SellNo91¢ → >99¢ | $1,345 | −$137 −10% | — |
| 202d | vastip16 | 3 | BuyNo91¢ → >99¢ | $1,151 | +$118 +10% | 10 |
| 202d | depthCherry | 3 | BuyNo91¢ → >99¢ | $1,345 | +$137 +10% | 10 |
| 202d | braincm85 | 3 | BuyNo91¢ → >99¢ | $1,326 | +$136 +10% | 10 |
| 202d | lecture-crucial | 3 | SellNo90¢ → >99¢ | $1,130 | −$120 −11% | — |
| 202d | trainso56 | 3 | SellNo90¢ → >99¢ | $1,510 | −$160 −11% | — |
| 202d | friend-term | 3 | SellNo90¢ → >99¢ | $1,232 | −$132 −11% | — |
| 202d | Panther-Muffin | 3 | SellNo90¢ → >99¢ | $1,217 | −$127 −10% | — |
| 202d | Reject-Tunnel | 3 | SellNo90¢ → >99¢ | $1,480 | −$155 −10% | — |
| 202d | impose.title.draft | 3 | SellNo90¢ → >99¢ | $1,126 | −$118 −10% | — |
| 202d | dogWelcome | 3 | BuyNo90¢ → >99¢ | $1,047 | +$113 +11% | 11 |
| 203d | large.again.sample | 3 | SellNo90¢ → >99¢ | $1,135 | −$117 −10% | — |
| 203d | mangoChief | 3 | SellNo90¢ → >99¢ | $1,273 | −$132 −10% | — |
| 203d | label240 | 3 | SellNo90¢ → >99¢ | $1,079 | −$112 −10% | — |
| 203d | impact7893 | 6 or lower | SellNo97¢ → >99¢ | $1,322 | −$40 −3.0% | — |
| 203d | bread-venture | 6 or lower | SellNo97¢ → >99¢ | $1,059 | −$32 −3.0% | — |
| 203d | impact7893 | 6 or lower | BuyNo97¢ → >99¢ | $1,325 | +$37 +2.8% | 6 |
| 203d | bread-venture | 6 or lower | BuyNo97¢ → >99¢ | $1,061 | +$29 +2.8% | 6 |
| 203d | sustain762 | 6 or lower | BuyNo97¢ → >99¢ | $1,062 | +$30 +2.8% | 6 |
| 203d | avocado6651 | 6 or lower | SellNo97¢ → >99¢ | $1,103 | −$29 −2.7% | — |
gopfan215,878 shares
semantics10,040 sharesThis market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 79¢ for 1 means the market gives it about 79%.