| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Ends in 78d | No | 10,000 | 54¢ → 94¢ | $9,350 | +$3,951 +73% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 8,332 | 69¢ → 76¢ | $6,299 | +$526 +9.1% |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 8,000 | 63¢ → 63¢ | $5,000 | −$50 −1.0% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 10d | No | 4,000 | 66¢ → 73¢ | $2,900 | +$260 +9.8% |
| Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Ends in 9d | Yes | 3,587 | 69¢ → 76¢ | $2,708 | +$225 +9.1% |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet?Ends in 75d | No | 3,000 | 39¢ → 82¢ | $2,460 | +$1,303 +113% |
| Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 10,000 | 33¢ → 24¢ | $2,350 | −$967 −29% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 3,000 | 69¢ → 77¢ | $2,295 | +$232 +11% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 2,000 | 29¢ → >99¢ | $1,996 | +$1,416 +244% |
| Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?Ends in 135d | Yes | 9,000 | 57¢ → 20¢ | $1,755 | −$3,401 −66% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 4,000 | 42¢ → 40¢ | $1,580 | −$120 −7.1% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Ends in 79d | No | 2,000 | 51¢ → 77¢ | $1,530 | +$510 +50% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 2,000 | 74¢ → 77¢ | $1,530 | +$50 +3.4% |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 2,000 | 74¢ → 75¢ | $1,490 | +$10 +0.7% |
| Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Ends in 42d | Yes | 2,000 | 64¢ → 61¢ | $1,210 | −$70 −5.5% |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 2,000 | 46¢ → 59¢ | $1,180 | +$254 +27% |
| Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 30m?Ends in 9h | No | 1,400 | 64¢ → 73¢ | $1,015 | +$115 +13% |
| Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 2,000 | 47¢ → 51¢ | $1,010 | +$70 +7.4% |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?Ends in 14d | No | 1,000 | 88¢ → 95¢ | $945 | +$65 +7.4% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | Yes | 4,000 | 11¢ → 24¢ | $940 | +$500 +114% |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 1,000 | 14¢ → 94¢ | $940 | +$800 +571% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?Ends in 7d | No | 3,000 | 34¢ → 30¢ | $885 | −$132 −13% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 3,822 | 37¢ → 23¢ | $860 | −$547 −39% |
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?Ends in 440d | No | 2,000 | 41¢ → 42¢ | $830 | +$10 +1.2% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 3,000 | 40¢ → 28¢ | $825 | −$370 −31% |
| Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 859 | 33¢ → 94¢ | $808 | +$524 +185% |
| Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?Ends in 3d | Yes | 969 | 47¢ → 83¢ | $799 | +$344 +76% |
| Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?Ends in 13d | Yes | 1,000 | 71¢ → 79¢ | $786 | +$76 +11% |
| Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 4,000 | 23¢ → 20¢ | $780 | −$140 −15% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 13d | No | 4,000 | 22¢ → 20¢ | $780 | −$100 −11% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 4,000 | 16¢ → 19¢ | $770 | +$147 +24% |
| Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 800 | 73¢ → 89¢ | $712 | +$128 +22% |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 75d | No | 2,000 | 38¢ → 35¢ | $697 | −$55 −7.3% |
| Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 1,000 | 75¢ → 70¢ | $695 | −$53 −7.0% |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 12,000 | 13¢ → 6¢ | $672 | −$945 −58% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Ends in 59d | No | 1,744 | 38¢ → 39¢ | $672 | +$9 +1.3% |
| No one announced as next James Bond?Ends in 75d | No | 1,000 | 80¢ → 67¢ | $667 | −$136 −17% |
| Will STRC hit $100 by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 896 | 21¢ → 73¢ | $654 | +$464 +244% |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 1,000 | 61¢ → 64¢ | $635 | +$25 +4.1% |
| Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 1,000 | 62¢ → 60¢ | $595 | −$23 −3.7% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Ends in 79d | Yes | 4,000 | 17¢ → 14¢ | $580 | −$100 −15% |
| Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 600 | 53¢ → 93¢ | $555 | +$237 +75% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseEnds in 17d | Yes | 2,000 | 28¢ → 28¢ | $550 | −$10 −1.8% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Ends in 75d | No | 688 | 49¢ → 77¢ | $532 | +$194 +57% |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 3,000 | 31¢ → 17¢ | $510 | −$420 −45% |
| Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,000 | 23¢ → 47¢ | $465 | +$234 +101% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Ends ended | No | 1,000 | 42¢ → 46¢ | $465 | +$48 +11% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 2,403 | 4¢ → 19¢ | $446 | +$339 +318% |
| Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22?Ends in 43d | Yes | 471 | 11¢ → 93¢ | $436 | +$384 +741% |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 1,800 | 30¢ → 24¢ | $432 | −$106 −20% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 1,000 | 53¢ → 43¢ | $425 | −$105 −20% |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 766 | 31¢ → 54¢ | $414 | +$176 +74% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,488 | 23¢ → 25¢ | $364 | +$22 +6.5% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Ends in 79d | No | 2,000 | 15¢ → 17¢ | $340 | +$40 +13% |
| Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,000 | 37¢ → 33¢ | $330 | −$42 −11% |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,269 | 26¢ → 25¢ | $311 | −$19 −5.8% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 4,000 | 25¢ → 8¢ | $300 | −$700 −70% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 800 | 40¢ → 36¢ | $284 | −$35 −11% |
| James Comey charges dropped by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 400 | 41¢ → 71¢ | $282 | +$118 +72% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 6,000 | 6¢ → 5¢ | $282 | −$88 −24% |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 286 | 21¢ → 96¢ | $274 | +$214 +356% |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 13d | No | 3,000 | 12¢ → 9¢ | $255 | −$115 −31% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 2,000 | 52¢ → 12¢ | $230 | −$810 −78% |
| Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?Ends in 440d | Yes | 2,000 | 14¢ → 12¢ | $230 | −$50 −18% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?Ends in 440d | No | 1,000 | 23¢ → 22¢ | $215 | −$15 −6.5% |
| Will Alexia Putellas win the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or?Ends in 9d | No | 4,000 | 6¢ → 5¢ | $204 | −$40 −16% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 2,000 | 33¢ → 9¢ | $180 | −$480 −73% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?Ends in 5d | No | 472 | 31¢ → 37¢ | $175 | +$28 +19% |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Ends in 82d | Yes | 153 | 79¢ → 96¢ | $147 | +$25 +21% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 2,000 | 30¢ → 7¢ | $130 | −$461 −78% |
| Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 500 | 25¢ → 26¢ | $130 | +$6 +5.1% |
| Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 1,101 | 11¢ → 11¢ | $126 | +$10 +8.9% |
| Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Ends in 74d | Yes | 800 | 63¢ → 16¢ | $126 | −$378 −75% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Ends ended | Yes | 500 | 27¢ → 25¢ | $123 | −$12 −9.3% |
| Will any player have 1,750+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?Ends in 101d | No | 414 | 28¢ → 30¢ | $122 | +$6 +5.4% |
| Will Heated Rivalry rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched TV Shows of 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 221 | 52¢ → 55¢ | $121 | +$6 +4.8% |
| Will Chen Ting-fei win the next Tainan Mayor election?Ends in 42d | No | 1,000 | 16¢ → 12¢ | $115 | −$45 −28% |
| Clavicular sentenced to prison by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,748 | 13¢ → 6¢ | $105 | −$130 −55% |
| Will American Airlines (AAL) beat quarterly earnings?Ends in 4d | No | 200 | 24¢ → 51¢ | $101 | +$53 +110% |
| Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 800 | 29¢ → 13¢ | $100 | −$132 −57% |
| Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,400 | 35¢ → 7¢ | $98 | −$386 −80% |
| Will Esthela Damián Peralta win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?Ends in 232d | Yes | 2,000 | 21¢ → 5¢ | $97 | −$323 −77% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 75d | Yes | 600 | 22¢ → 16¢ | $93 | −$39 −30% |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 2,006 | 54¢ → 4¢ | $85 | −$988 −92% |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Ends ended | Yes | 1,000 | 5¢ → 9¢ | $85 | +$35 +70% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 1,000 | 22¢ → 9¢ | $85 | −$135 −61% |
| Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,000 | 12¢ → 8¢ | $80 | −$40 −33% |
| Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,000 | 14¢ → 7¢ | $65 | −$75 −54% |
| Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?Ends in 6d | No | 1,000 | 7¢ → 6¢ | $59 | −$14 −19% |
| Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?Ends ended | No | 100,000 | <1¢ → <1¢ | $50 | −$50 −50% |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | No | 75 | 33¢ → 35¢ | $26 | +$1 +4.5% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?Ends in 14d | Yes | 1,000 | 17¢ → 3¢ | $25 | −$144 −85% |
| Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?Ends in 14d | Yes | 1,000 | 9¢ → 2¢ | $24 | −$66 −73% |
| OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 932 | 39¢ → 3¢ | $24 | −$342 −94% |
| Will the median home value in NYC be between $484,000 and $497,000 on December 31?Ends in 85d | No | 25 | 86¢ → 87¢ | $22 | +$0 +0.6% |
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 1,000 | 25¢ → 2¢ | $21 | −$228 −92% |
| US x Cuba military clash in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 21 | 55¢ → 87¢ | $18 | +$7 +57% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?Ends ended | Yes | 84 | 17¢ → 18¢ | $16 | +$1 +7.3% |
| Will the median home value in NYC be between $445,000 and $458,000 on December 31?Ends in 85d | Yes | 62 | 23¢ → 24¢ | $15 | +$1 +4.3% |
| Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Ends in 82d | Yes | 1,000 | 14¢ → 1¢ | $13 | −$127 −91% |
