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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 3% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 2¢ · 3¢ (1¢) | — | in 15d |
| December 31 | 13% | — | −1 pts | 12¢ · 13¢ (1¢) | — | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12d | enrico-vasaio | October 31 | BuyNo98¢ → 97¢ | $4,841 | −$17 −0.3% | 20 |
| 18d | pakukudolphi | October 31 | SellNo95¢ → 97¢ | $3,125 | −$77 −2.5% | — |
| 48d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2 | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,399 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 52d | nope3050 | December 31 | BuyNo87¢ → 88¢ | $3,036 | +$17 +0.6% | 20 |
| 56d | GironaNite | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31? | BuyNo100¢ | $1,990 | +$10 +0.5% | 20 |
| 59d | Playful-Collateral | December 31 | BuyNo79¢ → 88¢ | $1,580 | +$170 +11% | 20 |
| 66d | Marc345 | October 31 | BuyNo89¢ → 97¢ | $1,800 | +$173 +9.6% | 20 |
| 70d | LJa7io23MCv954j | October 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 97¢ | $1,136 | +$200 +18% | 20 |
| 76d |  0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05 | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31? | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,096 | −$128 −6.1% | — |
| 77d | enrico-vasaio | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,940 | +$60 +2.0% | 20 |
| 80d |  tetrase | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,312 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 81d | pakukudolphi | December 31 | BuyNo72¢ → 88¢ | $3,744 | +$806 +22% | 20 |
| 81d | pakukudolphi | October 31 | BuyNo80¢ → 97¢ | $4,554 | +$998 +22% | 20 |
| 86d | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05 | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,216 | +$14 +0.4% | 20 |
| 88d | yenky | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,697 | −$18 −1.1% | — |
| 92d | Sticky-Closing | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,495 | −$63 −2.5% | — |
| 95d | Jjw | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,078 | +$22 +2.0% | 20 |
| 101d | browne2 fills | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $5,510 | −$287 −5.2% | — |
| 101d |  tetrose | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $12,310 | +$513 +4.2% | 20 |
| 102d | denizz | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $5,255 | +$277 +5.3% | 20 |
| 107d |  Warren-Buffett | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,395 | +$105 +7.5% | 20 |
| 107d | Huludubu2 fills | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $3,840 | +$541 +14% | 20 |
| 111d | Sticky-Closing | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,538 | +$239 +16% | 20 |
| 114d | browne2 fills | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $8,244 | +$1,197 +15% | 20 |
| 115d | yenky | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$215 +14% | 20 |
| 115d |  RememberAmalek | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $8,535 | +$1,947 +23% | 20 |
eightpenguins11,519 shares
Valen93,327 shares0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e052,285 sharestetrase1,031 sharesRememberAmalek983 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 3¢ for October 31 means the market gives it about 3%.