Warren-Buffett

Polymarket wallet 0x4478d7bd8a295691ac84f60a5ec2b47e122102a4 · on Polymarket since Oct 1, 2025 · also shown as Hateful-Generation

Open on Polymarket ↗

Freak the fuck out and sell everything right now. Its fucking over.

Positions now worth: $84.4K
All-time profit: +$129K
Volume traded: $29.7M
All-time rank: #1,516
Markets traded: 1,592
Recent hit rate: 56%28 of last 50 closed

Open positions

61 markets · $84.4K

Market	Holding		Paid → now
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Ends in 75d	No	15,263	70¢ → 73¢	$11,066	+$403 +3.8%
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?Ends in 440d	Yes	10,000	86¢ → 90¢	$8,950	+$371 +4.3%
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?Ends in 14d	No	8,255	86¢ → 97¢	$8,045	+$911 +13%
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d	No	5,000	72¢ → 72¢	$3,575	−$25 −0.7%
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Ends ended	Yes	4,000	84¢ → 79¢	$3,140	−$224 −6.6%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d	Yes	5,000	59¢ → 60¢	$2,975	+$25 +0.8%
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 75d	No	3,000	97¢ → 97¢	$2,903	−$22 −0.8%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Ends in 79d	No	3,457	58¢ → 77¢	$2,645	+$643 +32%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Ends in 79d	No	6,000	31¢ → 43¢	$2,550	+$667 +35%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseEnds in 17d	Yes	4,000	42¢ → 63¢	$2,500	+$806 +48%
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	No	2,500	81¢ → 95¢	$2,362	+$328 +16%
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	Yes	20,000	13¢ → 11¢	$2,200	−$420 −16%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Ends in 75d	Yes	11,872	22¢ → 19¢	$2,196	−$433 −16%
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d	Yes	5,276	43¢ → 42¢	$2,190	−$104 −4.5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 10d	No	3,000	70¢ → 73¢	$2,175	+$75 +3.6%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?Ends in 79d	No	2,000	90¢ → 94¢	$1,878	+$78 +4.3%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Ends in 79d	No	2,000	77¢ → 86¢	$1,710	+$175 +11%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	Yes	5,000	80¢ → 34¢	$1,703	−$2,276 −57%
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d	Yes	10,000	16¢ → 16¢	$1,550	$0 0.0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	Yes	10,043	26¢ → 14¢	$1,356	−$1,219 −47%
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	Yes	3,750	56¢ → 36¢	$1,350	−$747 −36%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Ends in 75d	Yes	7,000	17¢ → 18¢	$1,225	+$55 +4.7%
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Ends in 75d	Yes	8,809	11¢ → 13¢	$1,101	+$167 +18%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d	No	1,137	87¢ → 87¢	$983	−$5 −0.5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Ends in 14d	Yes	108,913	5¢ → 1¢	$817	−$4,399 −84%
US strike on Colombia by December 31?Ends in 75d	No	1,000	77¢ → 80¢	$795	+$25 +3.2%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d	Yes	12,660	53¢ → 6¢	$760	−$5,894 −89%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Ends in 79d	Yes	1,000	70¢ → 69¢	$690	−$10 −1.4%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Ends ended	Yes	1,269	58¢ → 54¢	$679	−$54 −7.4%
Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	Yes	5,000	14¢ → 14¢	$675	−$25 −3.6%
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Ends in 75d	Yes	5,307	11¢ → 13¢	$663	+$86 +15%
Will Trump visit Greenland by October 31?Ends in 14d	No	650	94¢ → 99¢	$645	+$34 +5.5%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Ends in 74d	Yes	1,343	49¢ → 46¢	$611	−$42 −6.4%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Ends in 75d	Yes	3,700	58¢ → 17¢	$610	−$1,549 −72%
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d	Yes	4,750	14¢ → 13¢	$594	−$71 −11%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d	Yes	3,752	15¢ → 14¢	$531	−$39 −6.9%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Ends in 74d	Yes	594	71¢ → 82¢	$487	+$64 +15%
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 13d	Yes	500	81¢ → 81¢	$402	−$3 −0.6%
Will there be 2 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d	Yes	448	51¢ → 73¢	$327	+$97 +42%
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?Ends in 75d	Yes	4,000	12¢ → 8¢	$300	−$190 −39%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?Ends in 75d	Yes	3,000	46¢ → 10¢	$285	−$1,105 −79%
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 21, 2026?Ends in 4d	No	299	90¢ → 90¢	$271	+$1 +0.2%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?Ends in 10h	No	215	92¢ → 100¢	$214	+$16 +7.8%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?Ends in 4d	Yes	433	61¢ → 46¢	$199	−$64 −24%
No one announced as next James Bond?Ends in 75d	No	282	66¢ → 67¢	$188	+$2 +1.1%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Ends in 75d	Yes	735	24¢ → 25¢	$180	+$6 +3.6%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d	Yes	168	98¢ → 98¢	$165	+$1 +0.6%
Nothing Ever Happens: OctoberEnds in 13d	Nothing	170	90¢ → 96¢	$162	+$9 +6.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 11d	Yes	1,200	25¢ → 14¢	$162	−$138 −46%
Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d	Yes	145	44¢ → 85¢	$122	+$59 +92%
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?Ends in 75d	Yes	1,000	21¢ → 11¢	$105	−$105 −50%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?Ends in 7d	Yes	124	74¢ → 71¢	$87	−$4 −4.7%
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?Ends in 17d	Yes	5,000	5¢ → 1¢	$73	−$192 −73%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d	Yes	2,816	15¢ → 2¢	$61	−$362 −86%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 12d	Yes	2,000	23¢ → 3¢	$60	−$400 −87%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2026?Ends in 74d	No	50	90¢ → 95¢	$47	+$2 +5.0%
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 19, 2026?Ends in 2d	No	37	92¢ → 99¢	$37	+$3 +8.3%
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 18, 2026?Ends in 1d	No	30	99¢ → 97¢	$29	−$1 −1.8%
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Ends ended	Yes	65	23¢ → 39¢	$25	+$10 +67%
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?Ends in 75d	Yes	75	31¢ → 13¢	$9	−$14 −59%
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Ends in 2d	Yes	486	10¢ → 2¢	$8	−$42 −84%

Latest trades

last 60

When	Market	Bet	Size
13h	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 19, 2026?	BuyNo92¢	$34
21h	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?	BuyYes98¢	$164
1d	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 16, 2026?	BuyNo97¢	$195
1d	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	BuyNo95¢	$71
1d	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 16, 2026?	BuyNo99¢	$10
1d	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	BuyNo94¢	$95
1d	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 21, 2026?	BuyNo87¢	$95
1d	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	SellNo41¢	$515
1d	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	BuyYes53¢	$118
1d	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	SellNo96¢	$356
1d	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	BuyYes70¢	$529
2d	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	SellNo94¢	$727
2d	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	SellNo94¢	$1
2d	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	SellNo94¢	$940
2d	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	SellNo94¢	$38
2d	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	BuyNo83¢	$33
2d	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	SellNo41¢	$41
2d	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	BuyYes70¢	$172
2d	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	BuyYes25¢	$311
2d	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	SellNo94¢	$1
2d	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	SellNo94¢	$178
2d	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 21, 2026?	BuyNo92¢	$177
2d	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 18, 2026?	BuyNo99¢	$29
2d	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026?	BuyNo82¢	$276
2d	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	SellNo41¢	$60
2d	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	BuyYes69¢	$149
2d	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	BuyYes74¢	$93
2d	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	SellNo96¢	$128
3d	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	BuyYes1¢	$190
3d	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	SellNo96¢	$1,909
4d	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	BuyYes5¢	$275
4d	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	BuyYes81¢	$405
4d	No one announced as next James Bond?	BuyNo66¢	$131
4d	No one announced as next James Bond?	BuyNo66¢	$43
4d	No one announced as next James Bond?	BuyNo66¢	$12
6d	Will there be 2 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?	BuyYes47¢	$24
6d	Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?	BuyNo98¢	$295
7d	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	BuyNo23¢	$12
7d	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	BuyNo23¢	$2
7d	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	BuyNo23¢	$2
7d	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	BuyNo23¢	$2
7d	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	BuyNo98¢	$2,927
7d	Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	SellNo100¢	$2,985
7d	Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	BuyYes16¢	$827
7d	Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	BuyNo72¢	$3,640
7d	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	BuyYes44¢	$2,249
7d	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	BuyYes59¢	$2,998
7d	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	BuyNo23¢	$2
8d	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	BuyNo>99¢	$8,523
8d	Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	BuyNo99¢	$51
8d	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	SellYes41¢	$57
8d	Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	SellYes20¢	$34
9d	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	BuyYes16¢	$320
9d	Will there be 2 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?	BuyYes52¢	$207
10d	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	BuyNo23¢	$44
10d	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	BuyNo23¢	$6
10d	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	BuyNo23¢	$13
10d	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	BuyNo23¢	$9
10d	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	BuyNo23¢	$9
10d	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	BuyNo23¢	$5

Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 50 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.

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