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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 41% | +2 pts | −5 pts | 40¢ · 42¢ (2¢) | $683 | in 441d |
| June 30, 2027 | 29% | −6 pts | −12 pts | 28¢ · 30¢ (2¢) | $214 | in 257d |
| March 31, 2027 | 19% | +1 pts | −2 pts | 18¢ · 20¢ (2¢) | $92 | in 166d |
| December 31, 2026 | 6% | +1 pts | −1 pts | 5¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | $1.18K | in 76d |
| November 30, 2026 | 3% | −1 pts | −4 pts | 3¢ · 3¢ (1¢) | $3.37K | in 45d |
| October 31, 2026 | 1% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $3.09K | in 15d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7h | 18in36out | November 30, 2026 | BuyNo97¢ | $2,296 | −$7 −0.3% | 22 |
| 19h | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA2 fills | October 31, 2026 | BuyNo96¢ → 99¢ | $6,896 | +$238 +3.5% | 23 |
| 1d |  vinii | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo52¢ → 59¢ | $1,137 | +$164 +14% | 40 |
| 1d | Olcan | December 31, 2026 | SellNo94¢ → 95¢ | $2,082 | −$11 −0.5% | — |
| 1d |  ErnstKuzorra | December 31, 2026 | SellNo94¢ → 95¢ | $2,472 | −$13 −0.5% | — |
| 3d |  Sardinianshepherd | December 31, 2026 | SellNo94¢ → 95¢ | $1,880 | −$10 −0.5% | — |
| 4d | aff311 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo84¢ → 95¢ | $96,430 | +$11,421 +12% | 30 |
| 4d | MerziPuperzi3 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes17¢ → 6¢ | $9,080 | −$6,055 −67% | 54 |
| 5d | WarriorH7 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo86¢ → 95¢ | $11,343 | +$1,087 +9.6% | 29 |
| 5d |  GoriIIa12 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo86¢ → 95¢ | $101,215 | +$10,551 +10% | 30 |
| 6d |  Parz1vaI | November 30, 2026 | BuyNo95¢ → 97¢ | $3,417 | +$89 +2.6% | 24 |
| 10d | gorovi13 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo89¢ → 95¢ | $46,134 | +$2,999 +6.5% | 28 |
| 11d | Popular-Breath | December 31, 2026 | SellYes6¢ | $1,057 | +$157 +15% | — |
| 19d | poybois | December 31, 2026 | SellNo89¢ → 95¢ | $1,111 | −$70 −6.3% | — |
| 19d | justme003 | October 31, 2026 | BuyNo97¢ → 99¢ | $2,311 | +$57 +2.5% | 22 |
| 19d | Bet1nthedark3 fills | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,500 | +$150 +2.3% | 20 |
| 21d | gorovi2 fills | October 31, 2026 | BuyNo96¢ → 99¢ | $5,595 | +$185 +3.3% | 23 |
| 21d | Elias.Thornwell | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo89¢ → 95¢ | $2,385 | +$147 +6.2% | 27 |
| 23d | GoriIIa | October 31, 2026 | BuyNo93¢ → 99¢ | $8,306 | +$558 +6.7% | 25 |
| 23d | thoodr | October 31, 2026 | BuyNo93¢ → 99¢ | $1,860 | +$125 +6.7% | 25 |
| 24d | thoodr5 fills | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $11,862 | +$369 +3.1% | 20 |
| 25d | Animalmother2 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes16¢ → 6¢ | $3,898 | −$2,553 −65% | 49 |
| 25d | SnowLover74 fills | December 31, 2026 | SellYes19¢ → 6¢ | $10,949 | +$7,811 +71% | — |
| 25d | dsds1 | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo84¢ → 95¢ | $1,008 | +$126 +12% | 31 |
| 25d | aff32 fills | October 31, 2026 | BuyNo85¢ → 99¢ | $5,958 | +$1,019 +17% | 30 |
| 25d |  knrad | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,227 | +$32 +1.4% | 20 |
| 25d | geowatch | October 31, 2026 | BuyNo92¢ → 99¢ | $1,000 | +$80 +8.0% | 25 |
| 25d | geowatch | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$47 +2.3% | 20 |
| 26d |  0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05 | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes21¢ → 6¢ | $1,712 | −$1,262 −74% | 43 |
| 26d | dromedaryy | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes19¢ → 6¢ | $3,386 | −$2,406 −71% | 47 |
| 26d | flawfence2 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes17¢ → 6¢ | $8,313 | −$5,623 −68% | 53 |
| 26d | GoriIIa | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,608 | +$150 +3.3% | 20 |
| 26d |  MisTKy2 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo81¢ → 95¢ | $8,723 | +$1,478 +17% | 33 |
| 26d |  Tenebrus72 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo81¢ → 95¢ | $4,688 | +$752 +16% | 32 |
| 26d | Max3 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $12,510 | −$934 −7.5% | — |
| 26d | Raw-Sack | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes24¢ → 6¢ | $1,092 | −$846 −77% | 40 |
| 26d |  Raskell | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes21¢ → 6¢ | $1,636 | −$1,207 −74% | 43 |
| 26d | laureman2 fills | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,590 | +$257 +7.2% | 20 |
| 26d |  Optimus-2 fills | December 31, 2026 | SellYes22¢ → 6¢ | $2,651 | +$2,001 +75% | — |
| 26d | Coordinated-Farrow3 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes23¢ → 6¢ | $5,590 | −$4,254 −76% | 49 |
| 26d | Coordinated-Farrow | December 31, 2026 | SellYes22¢ → 6¢ | $3,303 | +$2,466 +75% | — |
| 26d | elockt | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,938 | +$62 +3.2% | 20 |
| 26d |  LiquidatedDegen | December 31, 2026 | SellYes13¢ → 6¢ | $1,608 | +$933 +58% | — |
| 26d | SnowLover73 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes18¢ → 6¢ | $10,480 | −$7,343 −70% | 54 |
| 26d | Amazing-Accommodation | December 31, 2026 | SellNo81¢ → 95¢ | $1,983 | −$333 −17% | — |
| 27d | aff3 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $22,037 | +$918 +4.2% | 20 |
| 27d | Madsolbro | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo80¢ → 95¢ | $1,000 | +$181 +18% | 33 |
| 27d |  Outsmarter2 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo80¢ → 95¢ | $3,438 | +$625 +18% | 33 |
| 27d |  Valiko. | December 31, 2026 | SellNo77¢ → 95¢ | $2,452 | −$557 −23% | — |
| 27d | 001xy | December 31, 2026 | SellNo77¢ → 95¢ | $2,820 | −$641 −23% | — |
| 27d |  Fuentes31 | December 31, 2026 | SellYes26¢ → 6¢ | $1,472 | +$1,161 +79% | — |
| 27d | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA3 fills | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $24,456 | +$1,288 +5.3% | 20 |
| 28d | annacallsit | December 31, 2026 | SellNo70¢ → 95¢ | $2,660 | −$946 −36% | — |
| 28d |  Seutervoinen | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,385 | +$127 +5.3% | 20 |
| 28d | 0x6c1f…87fc4 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes27¢ → 6¢ | $7,211 | −$5,722 −79% | 49 |
| 28d | Bukaj | October 31, 2026 | BuyNo86¢ → 99¢ | $1,000 | +$154 +15% | 29 |
| 29d | Bukaj0889 | October 31, 2026 | BuyNo86¢ → 99¢ | $3,000 | +$465 +15% | 29 |
| 29d | Max3 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $13,000 | +$718 +5.5% | 20 |
| 29d | Popular-Breath3 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes24¢ → 6¢ | $4,000 | −$3,100 −78% | 47 |
| 29d | Optimus-2 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes23¢ → 6¢ | $2,300 | −$1,759 −76% | 44 |
Haradwaith292 sharesvinii1,228 shares
mombil890 shares
Mithrandir.120 shares
lucid-NEXUS-happyIRL60 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 41¢ for December 31, 2027 means the market gives it about 41%.