| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 4,234 | 47¢ → 60¢ | $2,540 | +$571 +29% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 2,119 | 65¢ → 82¢ | $1,737 | +$356 +26% |
| Will ByteDance have the third highest private market valuation at the end of October?Ends in 14d | Yes | 1,228 | 92¢ → 98¢ | $1,207 | +$82 +7.3% |
| Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 1,420 | 75¢ → 85¢ | $1,200 | +$140 +13% |
| Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?Ends in 164d | No | 1,854 | 61¢ → 62¢ | $1,149 | +$14 +1.2% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 1,470 | 71¢ → 78¢ | $1,139 | +$89 +8.5% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 1,296 | 79¢ → 87¢ | $1,121 | +$98 +9.6% |
| Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 1,150 | 86¢ → 96¢ | $1,102 | +$112 +11% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 1,278 | 83¢ → 86¢ | $1,099 | +$39 +3.7% |
| Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 1,148 | 92¢ → 94¢ | $1,083 | +$23 +2.1% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 1,013 | 87¢ → 97¢ | $981 | +$97 +11% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 1,120 | 87¢ → 87¢ | $969 | −$6 −0.7% |
| Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 1,031 | 73¢ → 92¢ | $947 | +$194 +26% |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 987 | 81¢ → 90¢ | $888 | +$94 +12% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 1,177 | 59¢ → 67¢ | $783 | +$90 +13% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 828 | 69¢ → 90¢ | $745 | +$174 +30% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 795 | 90¢ → 93¢ | $740 | +$22 +3.1% |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 1,517 | 73¢ → 49¢ | $737 | −$372 −34% |
| Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 767 | 76¢ → 86¢ | $655 | +$71 +12% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 1,014 | 54¢ → 65¢ | $654 | +$107 +19% |
| Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,497 | 39¢ → 42¢ | $622 | +$34 +5.7% |
| Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 651 | 85¢ → 94¢ | $612 | +$59 +11% |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 642 | 91¢ → 95¢ | $611 | +$26 +4.4% |
| Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 863 | 69¢ → 69¢ | $596 | −$1 −0.1% |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 661 | 77¢ → 89¢ | $588 | +$76 +15% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 694 | 66¢ → 85¢ | $586 | +$126 +27% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 616 | 90¢ → 95¢ | $584 | +$29 +5.3% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 629 | 89¢ → 92¢ | $579 | +$22 +3.9% |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 661 | 52¢ → 87¢ | $572 | +$226 +65% |
| Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 667 | 77¢ → 85¢ | $567 | +$56 +11% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 80% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 576 | 89¢ → 94¢ | $540 | +$28 +5.4% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 578 | 90¢ → 93¢ | $535 | +$14 +2.7% |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 843 | 68¢ → 63¢ | $527 | −$49 −8.5% |
| Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 546 | 87¢ → 95¢ | $518 | +$44 +9.3% |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 65% or higher?Ends in 256d | No | 570 | 85¢ → 90¢ | $510 | +$25 +5.2% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 554 | 85¢ → 92¢ | $507 | +$36 +7.7% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 543 | 80¢ → 93¢ | $502 | +$69 +16% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 504 | 87¢ → 97¢ | $489 | +$51 +12% |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 514 | 75¢ → 93¢ | $475 | +$89 +23% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 513 | 87¢ → 93¢ | $474 | +$29 +6.6% |
| US x North Korea diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 550 | 80¢ → 85¢ | $464 | +$26 +5.9% |
| Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 506 | 80¢ → 90¢ | $457 | +$53 +13% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 775 | 51¢ → 59¢ | $453 | +$61 +16% |
| Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 625 | 59¢ → 65¢ | $406 | +$38 +10% |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 531 | 71¢ → 75¢ | $399 | +$19 +5.1% |
| Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 413 | 89¢ → 96¢ | $394 | +$27 +7.3% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 1,433 | 21¢ → 26¢ | $372 | +$74 +25% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 706 | 56¢ → 51¢ | $356 | −$41 −10% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 365 | 83¢ → 97¢ | $353 | +$49 +16% |
| Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $9.75B by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 361 | 90¢ → 95¢ | $343 | +$19 +5.9% |
| UBS announces move out of Switzerland by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 332 | 82¢ → 94¢ | $311 | +$37 +13% |
| Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | No | 499 | 48¢ → 61¢ | $302 | +$64 +27% |
| Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?Ends in 79d | Yes | 380 | 78¢ → 77¢ | $291 | −$5 −1.8% |
| Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027?Ends in 255d | No | 1,024 | 30¢ → 28¢ | $282 | −$23 −7.7% |
| Modi out by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | No | 277 | 71¢ → 90¢ | $248 | +$52 +26% |
| Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $650B by December 31?Ends in 79d | No | 305 | 69¢ → 80¢ | $244 | +$32 +15% |
| Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $19B by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 250 | 88¢ → 96¢ | $242 | +$22 +10% |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 245 | 83¢ → 95¢ | $233 | +$29 +14% |
| Turkish Constitutional Referendum announced in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 228 | 72¢ → 87¢ | $199 | +$33 +20% |
| Next GPT Luna (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?Ends in 43d | No | 417 | 36¢ → 47¢ | $196 | +$46 +31% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 200 | 79¢ → 95¢ | $189 | +$31 +20% |
| Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 218 | 52¢ → 86¢ | $186 | +$73 +64% |
| Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00 and $2.10 in October?Ends in 24d | No | 212 | 90¢ → 86¢ | $182 | −$8 −4.2% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | No | 200 | 90¢ → 90¢ | $179 | −$0 −0.3% |
| Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by November 30, 2026?Ends in 43d | No | 539 | 24¢ → 31¢ | $164 | +$34 +26% |
| Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15.5B by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 167 | 89¢ → 98¢ | $163 | +$14 +9.6% |
| Will OpenAI have the second highest private market valuation at the end of October?Ends in 14d | Yes | 166 | 88¢ → 97¢ | $161 | +$15 +10% |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?Ends in 13d | No | 165 | 88¢ → 97¢ | $160 | +$15 +11% |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on October 27?Ends in 10d | Yes | 202 | 74¢ → 77¢ | $155 | +$6 +4.3% |
| Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 186 | 75¢ → 80¢ | $148 | +$9 +6.1% |
| Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 169 | 83¢ → 87¢ | $146 | +$6 +4.1% |
| Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by November 30, 2026?Ends in 43d | No | 311 | 16¢ → 46¢ | $143 | +$93 +188% |
| Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $11.5B by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 150 | 88¢ → 90¢ | $134 | +$2 +1.7% |
| Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 132 | 93¢ → 96¢ | $127 | +$4 +2.9% |
| Ilhan Omar denaturalization case filed by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 136 | 84¢ → 90¢ | $122 | +$8 +6.8% |
| Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $27B by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 132 | 82¢ → 91¢ | $120 | +$12 +11% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 149 | 72¢ → 80¢ | $119 | +$12 +11% |
| Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $207.5B by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 165 | 85¢ → 70¢ | $115 | −$26 −18% |
| Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton engaged in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 123 | 79¢ → 85¢ | $104 | +$7 +7.2% |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 475 | 31¢ → 22¢ | $102 | −$44 −30% |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on October 19?Ends in 2d | Yes | 116 | 78¢ → 86¢ | $100 | +$9 +10% |
| Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $10.75B by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 200 | 65¢ → 49¢ | $97 | −$33 −25% |
| Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 650 | 21¢ → 14¢ | $94 | −$40 −30% |
| Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $20.5B by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 221 | 51¢ → 42¢ | $92 | −$21 −19% |
| Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 103 | 72¢ → 86¢ | $88 | +$14 +19% |
| Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 91 | 78¢ → 95¢ | $87 | +$16 +22% |
| Will Susie Wiles be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 112 | 76¢ → 77¢ | $86 | +$1 +1.6% |
| GPT-7 released by June 30, 2027?Ends in 255d | No | 142 | 61¢ → 58¢ | $82 | −$4 −4.2% |
| Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $55B by October 31?Ends in 14d | Yes | 228 | 21¢ → 34¢ | $78 | +$29 +58% |
| Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 100 | 70¢ → 77¢ | $77 | +$6 +8.7% |
| Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $127.5B by October 31?Ends in 14d | Yes | 146 | 27¢ → 52¢ | $76 | +$36 +93% |
| Will a dozen eggs cost <$1.90 in October?Ends in 24d | No | 77 | 94¢ → 97¢ | $75 | +$2 +3.3% |
| Rahul Gandhi arrested by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 91 | 82¢ → 80¢ | $73 | −$2 −2.5% |
| Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $20B by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 100 | 78¢ → 71¢ | $71 | −$7 −9.0% |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on October 22?Ends in 5d | Yes | 81 | 81¢ → 84¢ | $68 | +$3 +3.9% |
| Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $167.5B by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 89 | 74¢ → 74¢ | $66 | −$0 −0.5% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.525T by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 120 | 65¢ → 54¢ | $65 | −$13 −17% |
| Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by October 31?Ends in 14d | Yes | 129 | 43¢ → 49¢ | $63 | +$7 +13% |
| Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10 and $2.20 in October?Ends in 24d | No | 76 | 71¢ → 74¢ | $56 | +$2 +3.9% |
| Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.90 and $2.00 in October?Ends in 24d | No | 56 | 94¢ → 94¢ | $52 | +$0 +0.3% |
