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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kash Patel | 18% | +1 pts | — | 15¢ · 20¢ (5¢) | — | in 76d |
| Lee Zeldin | 9% | — | −1 pts | 6¢ · 11¢ (5¢) | — | in 76d |
| Marco Rubio | 5% | — | −1 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Scott Bessent | 5% | −1 pts | −2 pts | 4¢ · 6¢ (2¢) | — | in 76d |
| David Sacks | 8% | — | +1 pts | 6¢ · 10¢ (4¢) | — | in 76d |
| Stephen Miller | 10% | −1 pts | +2 pts | 7¢ · 13¢ (6¢) | — | in 76d |
| Pete Hegseth | 25% | −4 pts | +4 pts | 23¢ · 27¢ (4¢) | $1.47K | in 76d |
| Susie Wiles | 31% | −5 pts | +14 pts | 30¢ · 32¢ (2¢) | $1.05K | in 76d |
| John Ratcliffe | 11% | +1 pts | +4 pts | 6¢ · 16¢ (10¢) | — | in 76d |
| Kristi Noem | 35% | −2 pts | +5 pts | 25¢ · 45¢ (20¢) | $487 | in 76d |
| Russell Vought | 14% | −3 pts | −3 pts | 5¢ · 24¢ (19¢) | — | in 76d |
| Dan Scavino | 28% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 2¢ · 53¢ (51¢) | — | in 76d |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 14% | — | +1 pts | 10¢ · 17¢ (7¢) | $120 | in 76d |
| Howard Lutnick | 14% | — | −2 pts | 14¢ · 15¢ (1¢) | $62.9 | in 76d |
| Markwayne Mullin | 32% | +6 pts | −3 pts | 20¢ · 44¢ (24¢) | $40 | in 76d |
| Tom Homan | 31% | +7 pts | +12 pts | 18¢ · 43¢ (25¢) | $30 | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18d |  zxdfbdfgngcxv | Howard Lutnick | BuyNo82¢ → 86¢ | $1,432 | +$61 +4.3% | 16 |
| 36d |  paddaa | Pete Hegseth | SellNo79¢ → 75¢ | $2,369 | +$120 +5.1% | — |
| 47d |  Milktoast | Pete Hegseth | BuyNo86¢ → 75¢ | $1,283 | −$170 −13% | 13 |
| 65d |  Raskell | Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? | SellYes>99¢ | $3,695 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 65d |  elmcap2 | Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,097 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 65d |  kinderSman | Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,011 | +$3 +0.3% | 4 |
| 65d | yougotme | Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,279 | +$25 +0.3% | 4 |
| 65d | Raskell2 fills | Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,360 | +$15 +0.4% | 4 |
| 65d |  AllByMyseIf | Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,480 | +$16 +1.1% | 4 |
| 65d | fastestclick | Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,117 | −$34 −3.1% | — |
| 113d |  vinii | Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BuyNo69¢ → 0¢ | $1,398 | −$1,398 −100% | 4 |
| 114d |  aenews2 | Pete Hegseth | BuyYes34¢ → 25¢ | $1,511 | −$392 −26% | 25 |
| 147d |  KnureKnume | Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,492 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 147d | wan123 | Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $6,317 | +$1,203 +19% | 4 |
| 156d | tinman2 | Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BuyYes72¢ → 100¢ | $2,970 | +$1,171 +39% | 4 |
| 166d | Pondermint | Kash Patel | SellYes62¢ → 18¢ | $1,817 | +$1,305 +72% | — |
| 171d | MTD | Kash Patel | SellYes77¢ → 18¢ | $1,682 | +$1,300 +77% | — |
| 174d | MTD | Kash Patel | BuyYes81¢ → 18¢ | $1,312 | −$1,028 −78% | 4 |
| 176d | Pithy | Pete Hegseth | SellYes41¢ → 25¢ | $1,020 | +$397 +39% | — |
| 177d |  PantheraUncia | Kash Patel | SellYes77¢ → 18¢ | $1,007 | +$779 +77% | — |
| 183d |  SUPERNOVA- | Pete Hegseth | BuyNo56¢ → 75¢ | $1,158 | +$406 +35% | 24 |
| 186d | Pithy | Pete Hegseth | BuyYes46¢ → 25¢ | $1,754 | −$796 −45% | 24 |
| 190d | Jony007 | Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027? | SellYes62¢ → 100¢ | $1,223 | −$757 −62% | — |
| 192d |  extractive-manatee | Howard Lutnick | BuyNo41¢ → 86¢ | $1,049 | +$1,145 +109% | 24 |
| 193d | paddaa | Pete Hegseth | BuyNo62¢ → 75¢ | $1,400 | +$305 +22% | 24 |
| 195d | Hexagon555 | Kash Patel | SellYes72¢ → 18¢ | $2,811 | +$2,128 +76% | — |
| 196d |  starbuck02 | Kash Patel | BuyNo24¢ → 83¢ | $1,200 | +$2,925 +244% | 5 |
| 197d |  beenraping3 fills | Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BuyYes>99¢ | $45,912 | +$91 +0.2% | 4 |
| 197d | chil999 | Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,653 | −$24 −1.5% | — |
| 197d |  AgricultureSecretary2 fills | Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $8,152 | +$133 +1.6% | 4 |
| 197d |  TheRealestJOE | Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,577 | +$40 +1.1% | 4 |
| 197d |  Car | Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,626 | −$14 −0.9% | — |
| 197d | AllByMyseIf3 fills | Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $7,819 | +$577 +7.4% | 4 |
| 197d | M2sx92kljs42 | Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,624 | +$54 +2.0% | 4 |
| 197d | Car | Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,591 | +$49 +3.1% | 4 |
| 197d |  AishahSofey3 fills | Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $5,706 | +$1,652 +29% | 4 |
| 197d |  ImJustKen | Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $4,174 | +$175 +4.2% | 4 |
| 197d |  Newsance2 fills | Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $8,165 | +$617 +7.6% | 4 |
| 197d | HornyBibi | Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $4,666 | +$573 +12% | 4 |
| 197d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly2 fills | Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $10,972 | +$2,466 +22% | 4 |
| 197d | tinman2 | Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $2,475 | +$511 +21% | 4 |
| 197d | Cbarbhwux | Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $1,027 | +$275 +27% | 4 |
| 197d |  Erasmus. | Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $3,914 | +$723 +18% | 4 |
| 204d |  Tigerofthehood | David Sacks | BuyYes93¢ → 8¢ | $1,160 | −$1,058 −91% | 4 |
| 225d | 0xac6b…9cd2 | Kristi Noem | BuyYes66¢ → 35¢ | $1,019 | −$475 −47% | 24 |
| 225d | claudecoder34 | Kristi Noem | BuyYes72¢ → 35¢ | $1,023 | −$524 −51% | 23 |
| 225d |  WarriorPooh | Kristi Noem | BuyNo43¢ → 65¢ | $1,711 | +$876 +51% | 25 |
| 225d | AgricultureSecretary | Kristi Noem | BuyYes98¢ → 35¢ | $2,221 | −$1,426 −64% | 5 |
| 225d | Newsance | Kristi Noem | BuyYes93¢ → 35¢ | $2,067 | −$1,291 −62% | 8 |
| 288d | Anon5566 | Kash Patel | BuyNo49¢ → 83¢ | $2,052 | +$1,413 +69% | 4 |
| 303d |  ScottyNooo | Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,236 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 323d | 20251021 | Lee Zeldin | SellYes26¢ → 9¢ | $1,040 | +$700 +67% | — |
| 323d |  .jeet | Lee Zeldin | SellYes26¢ → 9¢ | $1,040 | +$700 +67% | — |
| 323d | .jeet | Lee Zeldin | BuyNo93¢ → 92¢ | $3,720 | −$60 −1.6% | 4 |
| 323d | 20251021 | Lee Zeldin | BuyYes93¢ → 9¢ | $3,720 | −$3,380 −91% | 4 |
| 323d | .jeet | Lee Zeldin | BuyYes93¢ → 9¢ | $3,720 | −$3,380 −91% | 4 |
Zachattack5002,495 sharesstarbuck023,732 shares
Serega-pro2,047 shares
DirkDiggler671,150 shares
Extramile1231,092 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 18¢ for Kash Patel means the market gives it about 18%.