| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 36,101 | 7¢ → 90¢ | $32,310 | +$29,816 +1195% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 15,896 | 65¢ → 94¢ | $14,863 | +$4,503 +43% |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31Ends in 75d | No | 15,261 | 33¢ → 95¢ | $14,498 | +$9,406 +185% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 21,658 | 18¢ → 66¢ | $14,283 | +$10,283 +257% |
| Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 10d | Yes | 16,346 | 57¢ → 69¢ | $11,197 | +$1,825 +19% |
| Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 9,887 | 92¢ → 93¢ | $9,145 | +$55 +0.6% |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 10,794 | 68¢ → 75¢ | $8,042 | +$735 +10% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 10,469 | 78¢ → 76¢ | $7,956 | −$166 −2.0% |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 8,625 | 41¢ → 90¢ | $7,762 | +$4,190 +117% |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 13d | Yes | 7,000 | 80¢ → 92¢ | $6,405 | +$825 +15% |
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 6,166 | 82¢ → 94¢ | $5,765 | +$686 +14% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?Ends in 29d | No | 5,671 | 66¢ → 97¢ | $5,490 | +$1,758 +47% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Ends in 13d | No | 5,893 | 66¢ → 93¢ | $5,451 | +$1,562 +40% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | No | 11,984 | 35¢ → 45¢ | $5,333 | +$1,172 +28% |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 4,954 | 72¢ → 86¢ | $4,236 | +$681 +19% |
| Ilhan Omar federally charged by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 4,420 | 93¢ → 96¢ | $4,228 | +$110 +2.7% |
| Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 4,508 | 73¢ → 77¢ | $3,449 | +$142 +4.3% |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 3,157 | 83¢ → 93¢ | $2,921 | +$311 +12% |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 3,695 | 74¢ → 76¢ | $2,808 | +$62 +2.2% |
| FlyDubai co-pilot transferred to Israel by Oct. 31?Ends in 14d | No | 2,861 | 95¢ → 98¢ | $2,791 | +$61 +2.2% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 2,839 | 67¢ → 93¢ | $2,640 | +$741 +39% |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 2,625 | 56¢ → 92¢ | $2,402 | +$932 +63% |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 2,707 | 0¢ → 84¢ | $2,284 | +$2,284 +0.0% |
| Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 2,303 | 95¢ → 94¢ | $2,173 | −$12 −0.6% |
| Will Israel Katz be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?Ends in 134d | No | 2,150 | 90¢ → 97¢ | $2,075 | +$134 +6.9% |
| Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?Ends in 74d | No | 2,086 | 65¢ → 85¢ | $1,773 | +$415 +31% |
| Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 1,852 | 83¢ → 87¢ | $1,602 | +$66 +4.3% |
| Turkey military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 1,407 | 90¢ → 99¢ | $1,399 | +$134 +11% |
| Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?Ends in 134d | No | 1,435 | 83¢ → 96¢ | $1,371 | +$174 +15% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 4,269 | 20¢ → 28¢ | $1,174 | +$321 +38% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Ends in 59d | No | 3,013 | 25¢ → 38¢ | $1,145 | +$392 +52% |
| US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 1,106 | 75¢ → 91¢ | $1,000 | +$174 +21% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?Ends in 134d | No | 960 | 82¢ → 94¢ | $901 | +$115 +15% |
| Pakistan military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 1,065 | 84¢ → 85¢ | $900 | +$8 +0.9% |
| Turkey military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 973 | 85¢ → 92¢ | $891 | +$59 +7.1% |
| Will Yariv Levin be the next Israeli Minister of Justice?Ends in 134d | No | 873 | 84¢ → 94¢ | $817 | +$86 +12% |
| Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 881 | 82¢ → 89¢ | $779 | +$55 +7.5% |
| Ilhan Omar arrested by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 817 | 93¢ → 95¢ | $772 | +$15 +2.0% |
| Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 664 | 78¢ → 96¢ | $634 | +$119 +23% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | No | 708 | 53¢ → 81¢ | $573 | +$197 +52% |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 632 | 66¢ → 86¢ | $544 | +$127 +30% |
| Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 500 | 87¢ → 90¢ | $450 | +$15 +3.4% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | No | 500 | 84¢ → 90¢ | $448 | +$28 +6.5% |
| Will Bezalel Smotrich be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?Ends in 134d | No | 439 | 79¢ → 95¢ | $416 | +$70 +20% |
| Will Miri Regev be the next Israeli Minister of Interior?Ends in 134d | No | 415 | 82¢ → 98¢ | $405 | +$63 +18% |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 10d | No | 537 | 41¢ → 69¢ | $368 | +$147 +67% |
| U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 398 | 68¢ → 83¢ | $330 | +$59 +22% |
| Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 258 | 73¢ → 96¢ | $247 | +$60 +32% |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | No | 470 | 17¢ → 35¢ | $162 | +$82 +103% |
| Will Amcha Yisrael win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Ends in 9d | Yes | 183 | 67¢ → 69¢ | $126 | +$4 +3.0% |
| Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 96 | 66¢ → 98¢ | $94 | +$31 +49% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 55 | 40¢ → 91¢ | $50 | +$28 +126% |
| Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?Ends in 825d | No | 200 | 38¢ → 24¢ | $48 | −$28 −37% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 10d | No | 55 | 47¢ → 73¢ | $40 | +$14 +54% |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 147 | 57¢ → 25¢ | $36 | −$48 −57% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 100 | 86¢ → 19¢ | $19 | −$67 −78% |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in May 2027 (ET)?Ends in 440d | Yes | 145 | <1¢ → 6¢ | $9 | +$8 +1450% |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in June 2027 (ET)?Ends in 440d | Yes | 174 | <1¢ → 1¢ | $1 | +$1 +87% |
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,152 | 90¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,039 −100% |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 771 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$6 −100% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 9,076 | 33¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3,002 −100% |
| Israel enacts military exemption for Yeshiva students by Sep 30?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,019 | 93¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$945 −100% |
| Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 14,241 | 49¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$7,036 −100% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 500 | 74¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$370 −100% |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 7,661 | 34¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2,613 −100% |
| US x China tariff agreement by December 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 4,517 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$595 −100% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,258 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,271 | 61¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$781 −100% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 6 | 18¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| US bank failure by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 986 | 83¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$816 −100% |
| US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 15,554 | 66¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10,282 −100% |
| Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 8,290 | 54¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4,453 −100% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 6,842 | 45¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3,063 −100% |
| Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 224 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3 −100% |
| Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 2,676 | 79¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2,110 −100% |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 559 | 93¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$519 −100% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 100 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 783 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 2,676 | 74¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,993 −100% |
| Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 55 | 89¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$49 −100% |
| Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 111 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$6 −100% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 300 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 595 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 496 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 317 | 94¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$298 −100% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 10,589 | 65¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$6,863 −100% |
| Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 280 | 60¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$169 −100% |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 9,624 | 57¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5,502 −100% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 6,986 | 46¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3,242 −100% |
| Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 3,224 | 41¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,319 −100% |
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 639 | 86¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$547 −100% |
| Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 885 | 74¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$656 −100% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 6,201 | 56¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3,446 −100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 4,485 | 67¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2,992 −100% |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 24 | 16¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$4 −100% |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 6,359 | 88¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5,596 −100% |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,934 | 74¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2,180 −100% |
| Iran closes its airspace by July 15?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,880 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$251 −100% |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 7,878 | 19¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1,513 −100% |
| Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 619 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$24 −100% |
