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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | — | +7 pts | 24¢ · 25¢ (1¢) | $28.1K | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6m | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BuyNo75¢ → 76¢ | $12,852 | +$109 +0.8% | 37 |
| 22m |  peasant | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BuyYes25¢ | $2,834 | −$52 −1.8% | 33 |
| 7d |  HorribleWork | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BuyYes20¢ → 25¢ | $1,171 | +$265 +23% | 24 |
| 16d | Jest55 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BuyNo80¢ → 76¢ | $1,080 | −$61 −5.6% | 22 |
| 18d |  scottilicious | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BuyYes25¢ | $1,577 | −$50 −3.2% | 27 |
| 21d |  Parz1vaI | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BuyNo78¢ → 76¢ | $9,459 | −$282 −3.0% | 35 |
| 31d |  vinii | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | SellNo76¢ | $1,099 | +$7 +0.7% | — |
| 32d | mrkinetiq | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | SellNo75¢ → 76¢ | $1,123 | −$14 −1.2% | — |
| 36d |  Car | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | SellNo78¢ → 76¢ | $1,980 | +$69 +3.5% | — |
| 44d | M2sx92kljs42 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BuyNo78¢ → 76¢ | $7,157 | −$197 −2.8% | 35 |
| 44d | forinnerpsandr1x11222 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BuyNo77¢ → 76¢ | $3,080 | −$60 −1.9% | 27 |
| 44d | Tend1esAdd1ction | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | SellNo72¢ → 76¢ | $1,439 | −$64 −4.4% | — |
| 45d | Pondermint6 fills | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BuyYes35¢ → 25¢ | $8,071 | −$2,444 −30% | 46 |
| 46d | aannggg | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BuyNo74¢ → 76¢ | $1,468 | +$24 +1.7% | 24 |
| 49d | Sticky-Closing3 fills | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BuyNo80¢ → 76¢ | $5,118 | −$266 −5.2% | 30 |
| 59d | Pondermint | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | SellYes18¢ → 25¢ | $2,416 | −$784 −32% | — |
| 60d | Car | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BuyNo79¢ → 76¢ | $1,589 | −$66 −4.2% | 23 |
| 72d |  MrNoItAll | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | SellNo80¢ → 76¢ | $1,120 | +$66 +5.9% | — |
| 92d | BlindAndDeaf | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BuyNo78¢ → 76¢ | $1,500 | −$56 −3.7% | 23 |
| 108d | Tend1esAdd1ction | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BuyNo75¢ → 76¢ | $1,500 | +$3 +0.2% | 24 |
| 121d |  endlesssss | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BuyNo71¢ → 76¢ | $1,400 | +$92 +6.6% | 24 |
| 128d | mm4ker | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BuyNo75¢ → 76¢ | $1,250 | +$8 +0.7% | 23 |
| 187d | MTD | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | SellYes39¢ → 25¢ | $1,979 | +$735 +37% | — |
| 190d | MTD | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BuyYes42¢ → 25¢ | $1,326 | −$545 −41% | 24 |
| 192d |  LinaBell | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BuyNo56¢ → 76¢ | $1,792 | +$624 +35% | 25 |
| 194d | DaveyP2 fills | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BuyYes49¢ → 25¢ | $4,229 | −$2,093 −49% | 32 |
| 195d | 6idontknow123451334 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BuyYes42¢ → 25¢ | $1,096 | −$461 −42% | 23 |
| 197d |  MisTKy | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BuyNo78¢ → 76¢ | $2,270 | −$59 −2.6% | 25 |
| 197d |  VibeyQuant | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BuyNo78¢ → 76¢ | $1,170 | −$37 −3.2% | 22 |
DirkDiggler6728,819 sharespeasant20,351 shares
BigRabbit14,544 sharesHorribleWork7,404 sharesParz1vaI16,714 shares
Serega-pro16,170 shares
Mr-Krabs8,996 shares
MEPP8,122 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 25¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 25%.