Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 11% | −1 pts | — | 10¢ · 12¢ (2¢) | $1.64K | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18h |  crypto-basenji | December 31, 2026 | SellNo87¢ → 89¢ | $1,040 | −$28 −2.7% | — |
| 2d |  0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e052 fills | December 31, 2026 | SellNo81¢ → 89¢ | $5,720 | −$597 −10% | — |
| 8d | Noname333 | December 31, 2026 | SellNo88¢ → 89¢ | $2,369 | −$27 −1.1% | — |
| 17d |  paddaa3 fills | December 31, 2026 | SellNo79¢ → 89¢ | $6,384 | −$791 −12% | — |
| 26d | PepsiWarrior | December 31, 2026 | SellNo80¢ → 89¢ | $1,616 | −$181 −11% | — |
| 32d |  eCash2 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo78¢ → 89¢ | $9,174 | +$1,249 +14% | 18 |
| 37d | 👑_King_George_👑2 fills | December 31, 2026 | SellNo78¢ → 89¢ | $2,935 | −$414 −14% | — |
| 40d | tr10003 fills | December 31, 2026 | SellNo78¢ → 89¢ | $4,464 | −$606 −14% | — |
| 44d | bailma | December 31, 2026 | SellNo77¢ → 89¢ | $1,810 | −$282 −16% | — |
| 44d | kitef-843 | December 31, 2026 | SellNo77¢ → 89¢ | $3,119 | −$486 −16% | — |
| 44d | bailma | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo77¢ → 89¢ | $3,234 | +$504 +16% | 19 |
| 44d | zbajie | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo77¢ → 89¢ | $3,196 | +$498 +16% | 19 |
| 44d | raniny | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes23¢ → 11¢ | $1,472 | −$768 −52% | 26 |
| 44d | rocket1 | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo77¢ → 89¢ | $3,080 | +$480 +16% | 19 |
| 44d | vidac | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes23¢ → 11¢ | $2,300 | −$1,200 −52% | 28 |
| 44d | Noname333 | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo78¢ → 89¢ | $1,100 | +$155 +14% | 19 |
| 45d | tr10002 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo76¢ → 89¢ | $5,470 | +$931 +17% | 20 |
| 45d |  yen4u4 fills | December 31, 2026 | SellNo65¢ → 89¢ | $6,429 | −$2,335 −36% | — |
| 47d | browne2 fills | December 31, 2026 | SellNo79¢ → 89¢ | $2,963 | −$375 −13% | — |
| 51d | greengasper | December 31, 2026 | SellYes21¢ → 11¢ | $2,101 | +$999 +48% | — |
| 56d |  MEPP2 fills | December 31, 2026 | SellNo44¢ → 89¢ | $2,923 | −$2,927 −100% | — |
| 56d |  clazzy1 | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo71¢ → 89¢ | $1,065 | +$270 +25% | 23 |
| 60d |  Tenebrus72 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo69¢ → 89¢ | $3,054 | +$869 +28% | 24 |
| 60d | MEPP3 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo50¢ → 89¢ | $6,684 | +$5,133 +77% | 24 |
| 60d | 👑_King_George_👑 | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo73¢ → 89¢ | $1,907 | +$418 +22% | 22 |
| 60d |  Car5 fills | December 31, 2026 | SellYes52¢ → 11¢ | $13,185 | +$10,408 +79% | — |
| 60d | MEPP2 fills | December 31, 2026 | SellYes42¢ → 11¢ | $2,921 | +$2,156 +74% | — |
| 60d |  LiquidatedDegen | December 31, 2026 | SellYes33¢ → 11¢ | $1,281 | +$850 +66% | — |
| 60d | Car10 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes67¢ → 11¢ | $20,062 | −$16,757 −84% | 24 |
| 60d |  Hakei. | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes35¢ → 11¢ | $1,221 | −$842 −69% | 25 |
| 60d |  MisTKy10 fills | December 31, 2026 | SellYes47¢ → 11¢ | $17,877 | +$13,723 +77% | — |
| 61d |  Trading4Fridge | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo63¢ → 89¢ | $5,551 | +$2,270 +41% | 24 |
| 61d |  RiskyWhisky | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes44¢ → 11¢ | $3,838 | −$2,872 −75% | 26 |
| 61d | wigglew | December 31, 2026 | SellNo57¢ → 89¢ | $2,115 | −$1,187 −56% | — |
| 61d |  suraxy | December 31, 2026 | SellNo59¢ → 89¢ | $4,208 | −$2,125 −50% | — |
| 61d |  0xf1434f7d6de30bfbbdfeadd075a1f40f | December 31, 2026 | SellYes38¢ → 11¢ | $1,555 | +$1,109 +71% | — |
| 61d | 0xf1434f7d6de30bfbbdfeadd075a1f40f | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes40¢ → 11¢ | $1,643 | −$1,191 −73% | 25 |
| 61d | MisTKy14 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes52¢ → 11¢ | $35,267 | −$27,845 −79% | 24 |
| 62d | 6482f2 fills | December 31, 2026 | SellNo44¢ → 89¢ | $2,576 | −$2,646 −103% | — |
| 62d | browne | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo66¢ → 89¢ | $3,315 | +$1,135 +34% | 24 |
| 62d | MEPP | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes37¢ → 11¢ | $2,403 | −$1,688 −70% | 26 |
| 64d |  AgricultureSecretary | December 31, 2026 | SellNo60¢ → 89¢ | $4,147 | −$2,004 −48% | — |
| 69d | Tall-Suspension | December 31, 2026 | SellNo58¢ → 89¢ | $1,393 | −$743 −53% | — |
| 69d | wigglew | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo52¢ → 89¢ | $2,375 | +$1,726 +73% | 24 |
| 69d | Tall-Suspension | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo54¢ → 89¢ | $2,000 | +$1,292 +65% | 24 |
| 69d | 8dcc906a9b | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes45¢ → 11¢ | $1,540 | −$1,166 −76% | 24 |
| 72d | Ditto321 | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo44¢ → 89¢ | $2,078 | +$2,121 +102% | 25 |
| 72d | Ditto321 | December 31, 2026 | SellYes56¢ → 11¢ | $2,058 | +$1,654 +80% | — |
| 72d | katbot | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo44¢ → 89¢ | $1,000 | +$1,025 +103% | 24 |
| 72d |  Rituximab | December 31, 2026 | SellYes59¢ → 11¢ | $1,239 | +$1,008 +81% | — |
| 73d | LJa7io23MCv954j2 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo37¢ → 89¢ | $3,717 | +$5,225 +141% | 27 |
| 73d | denizz5 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes81¢ → 11¢ | $11,592 | −$10,020 −86% | 17 |
| 73d | paddaa2 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo52¢ → 89¢ | $3,200 | +$2,315 +72% | 24 |
| 73d | denizz4 fills | December 31, 2026 | SellYes69¢ → 11¢ | $7,583 | +$6,369 +84% | — |
| 74d | paddaa | December 31, 2026 | SellYes54¢ → 11¢ | $1,493 | +$1,191 +80% | — |
| 74d | pakukudolphi | December 31, 2026 | SellYes52¢ → 11¢ | $1,241 | +$979 +79% | — |
| 76d | Arman22 fills | December 31, 2026 | SellYes63¢ → 11¢ | $2,616 | +$2,155 +82% | — |
| 76d | yen4u2 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo36¢ → 89¢ | $6,268 | +$9,074 +145% | 29 |
| 76d | Ditto321 | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes65¢ → 11¢ | $2,393 | −$1,989 −83% | 24 |
| 76d | hopefullynoloost | December 31, 2026 | SellYes65¢ → 11¢ | $1,935 | +$1,608 +83% | — |
Vanquish18,296 sharesCar14,294 sharesyen4u22,395 shareseCash19,646 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 11¢ for December 31, 2026 means the market gives it about 11%.