| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | Yes | 19,915 | 73¢ → 77¢ | $15,315 | +$874 +6.1% |
| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Ends in 806d | No | 12,452 | 79¢ → 74¢ | $9,152 | −$721 −7.3% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseEnds in 17d | No | 9,500 | 91¢ → 92¢ | $8,693 | +$27 +0.3% |
| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | Yes | 49,731 | 15¢ → 13¢ | $6,216 | −$1,243 −17% |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 17d | No | 6,000 | 91¢ → 91¢ | $5,430 | −$50 −0.9% |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?Ends in 17d | No | 5,390 | 96¢ → 99¢ | $5,312 | +$160 +3.1% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 7,292 | 79¢ → 73¢ | $5,287 | −$462 −8.0% |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Ends ended | No | 23,330 | 21¢ → 22¢ | $5,016 | +$7 +0.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?Ends in 1d | Yes | 4,860 | 94¢ → 98¢ | $4,751 | +$184 +4.0% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?Ends in 52d | No | 4,750 | 97¢ → 97¢ | $4,589 | −$22 −0.5% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 4,908 | 85¢ → 91¢ | $4,466 | +$275 +6.6% |
| Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 4,800 | 78¢ → 90¢ | $4,308 | +$543 +14% |
| Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 4,473 | 79¢ → 96¢ | $4,296 | +$774 +22% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 5,489 | 73¢ → 76¢ | $4,144 | +$135 +3.4% |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 4,733 | 79¢ → 86¢ | $4,047 | +$289 +7.7% |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Ends ended | No | 4,765 | 85¢ → 84¢ | $3,984 | −$43 −1.1% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | Yes | 16,815 | 22¢ → 24¢ | $3,951 | +$297 +8.1% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Ends in 59d | Yes | 5,986 | 74¢ → 62¢ | $3,681 | −$766 −17% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 17d | Yes | 4,000 | 92¢ → 91¢ | $3,620 | −$40 −1.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Ends in 43d | Yes | 5,741 | 64¢ → 61¢ | $3,502 | −$159 −4.3% |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 3,572 | 95¢ → 97¢ | $3,460 | +$50 +1.5% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 5,848 | 63¢ → 56¢ | $3,246 | −$458 −12% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 3,257 | 93¢ → 95¢ | $3,078 | +$51 +1.7% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Ends ended | Yes | 5,679 | 53¢ → 54¢ | $3,041 | +$16 +0.5% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseEnds in 17d | Yes | 4,828 | 60¢ → 63¢ | $3,018 | +$131 +4.5% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 3,254 | 86¢ → 87¢ | $2,828 | +$37 +1.3% |
| Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | No | 3,225 | 84¢ → 88¢ | $2,822 | +$113 +4.2% |
| Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 2,978 | 89¢ → 92¢ | $2,739 | +$87 +3.3% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 3,713 | 75¢ → 71¢ | $2,653 | −$145 −5.2% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Ends in 43d | No | 4,287 | 56¢ → 61¢ | $2,594 | +$193 +8.1% |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 2,700 | 96¢ → 96¢ | $2,592 | −$8 −0.3% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Ends in 74d | No | 4,246 | 39¢ → 55¢ | $2,314 | +$662 +40% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 3,002 | 67¢ → 75¢ | $2,253 | +$234 +12% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 11d | No | 2,500 | 72¢ → 87¢ | $2,163 | +$370 +21% |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 2,298 | 89¢ → 94¢ | $2,148 | +$92 +4.5% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 2,340 | 76¢ → 89¢ | $2,083 | +$301 +17% |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?Ends in 14d | No | 2,131 | 93¢ → 95¢ | $2,014 | +$34 +1.7% |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | No | 2,198 | 91¢ → 91¢ | $1,989 | −$4 −0.2% |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?Ends in 17d | No | 2,000 | 96¢ → 99¢ | $1,973 | +$63 +3.3% |
| Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 2,283 | 86¢ → 86¢ | $1,952 | −$12 −0.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 13d | Yes | 2,200 | 82¢ → 86¢ | $1,881 | +$80 +4.5% |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 1,983 | 86¢ → 95¢ | $1,873 | +$176 +10% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?Ends in 82d | No | 1,923 | 95¢ → 96¢ | $1,849 | +$13 +0.7% |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 2,097 | 85¢ → 88¢ | $1,844 | +$62 +3.5% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 10d | No | 2,500 | 71¢ → 73¢ | $1,813 | +$48 +2.7% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 2,040 | 87¢ → 89¢ | $1,805 | +$22 +1.2% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Ends in 79d | Yes | 3,134 | 71¢ → 57¢ | $1,802 | −$421 −19% |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 1,792 | 82¢ → 97¢ | $1,730 | +$256 +17% |
| Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | No | 2,000 | 86¢ → 86¢ | $1,710 | −$10 −0.6% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 2,000 | 83¢ → 85¢ | $1,690 | +$32 +1.9% |
| Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | No | 2,000 | 82¢ → 85¢ | $1,690 | +$40 +2.4% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 1,813 | 92¢ → 93¢ | $1,686 | +$18 +1.1% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Ends in 52d | Yes | 2,185 | 72¢ → 77¢ | $1,671 | +$88 +5.6% |
| Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?Ends in 75d | No | 1,751 | 87¢ → 95¢ | $1,667 | +$139 +9.1% |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Ends in 17d | Yes | 2,081 | 76¢ → 79¢ | $1,633 | +$56 +3.6% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 2,475 | 62¢ → 66¢ | $1,633 | +$110 +7.2% |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?Ends in 806d | No | 2,000 | 83¢ → 82¢ | $1,630 | −$30 −1.8% |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 2,250 | 72¢ → 71¢ | $1,586 | −$24 −1.5% |
| Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 1,701 | 88¢ → 92¢ | $1,556 | +$56 +3.7% |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 2,068 | 74¢ → 75¢ | $1,551 | +$30 +2.0% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?Ends in 10h | Yes | 1,550 | 95¢ → 98¢ | $1,525 | +$51 +3.5% |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | Yes | 3,000 | 52¢ → 51¢ | $1,515 | −$45 −2.9% |
| Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Ends in 806d | No | 2,000 | 69¢ → 75¢ | $1,490 | +$106 +7.6% |
| Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Ends in 806d | No | 2,000 | 74¢ → 74¢ | $1,470 | −$10 −0.7% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 3,066 | 57¢ → 48¢ | $1,457 | −$299 −17% |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 2,223 | 55¢ → 66¢ | $1,456 | +$223 +18% |
| Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 1,500 | 96¢ → 95¢ | $1,430 | −$13 −0.9% |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 1,484 | 89¢ → 96¢ | $1,424 | +$110 +8.4% |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 1,508 | 85¢ → 94¢ | $1,417 | +$141 +11% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 1,524 | 85¢ → 91¢ | $1,379 | +$76 +5.8% |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again?Ends in 33d | No | 1,400 | 94¢ → 97¢ | $1,354 | +$44 +3.3% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 1,456 | 93¢ → 93¢ | $1,347 | −$2 −0.1% |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Ends in 531d | No | 1,550 | 81¢ → 85¢ | $1,317 | +$55 +4.4% |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 1,869 | 71¢ → 70¢ | $1,299 | −$37 −2.8% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?Ends in 18d | Yes | 3,500 | 36¢ → 36¢ | $1,243 | −$18 −1.4% |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 1,565 | 70¢ → 76¢ | $1,181 | +$94 +8.6% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 1,267 | 91¢ → 93¢ | $1,172 | +$13 +1.1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 1,192 | 93¢ → 98¢ | $1,166 | +$63 +5.7% |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)Ends in 13d | No | 1,217 | 77¢ → 96¢ | $1,162 | +$221 +24% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Ends in 29d | Yes | 1,640 | 72¢ → 71¢ | $1,156 | −$21 −1.8% |
| Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 1,209 | 89¢ → 96¢ | $1,154 | +$79 +7.3% |
| Iran leadership change by November 30?Ends in 44d | No | 1,234 | 92¢ → 94¢ | $1,153 | +$25 +2.2% |
| Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?Ends in 75d | No | 1,156 | 87¢ → 97¢ | $1,123 | +$122 +12% |
| Will the US announce a diesel export ban by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 1,257 | 87¢ → 89¢ | $1,112 | +$19 +1.8% |
| Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 1,166 | 85¢ → 94¢ | $1,090 | +$95 +9.5% |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?Ends in 78d | No | 1,471 | 73¢ → 74¢ | $1,081 | +$12 +1.1% |
| U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 1,150 | 94¢ → 94¢ | $1,075 | −$8 −0.7% |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Ends in 17d | Yes | 1,108 | 88¢ → 96¢ | $1,068 | +$88 +9.0% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Ends in 752d | Yes | 5,030 | 42¢ → 21¢ | $1,059 | −$1,049 −50% |
| Amazon matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 1,089 | 81¢ → 97¢ | $1,057 | +$178 +20% |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 183d | No | 1,186 | 87¢ → 88¢ | $1,049 | +$22 +2.2% |
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 1,521 | 60¢ → 68¢ | $1,027 | +$107 +12% |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 1,028 | 83¢ → 96¢ | $984 | +$133 +16% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 1,105 | 86¢ → 89¢ | $978 | +$30 +3.1% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 1,000 | 94¢ → 97¢ | $969 | +$29 +3.1% |
| Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Ends in 17d | No | 1,000 | 93¢ → 97¢ | $965 | +$31 +3.3% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 996 | 97¢ → 97¢ | $963 | +$1 +0.1% |
| US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 1,000 | 93¢ → 96¢ | $959 | +$25 +2.6% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 10d | No | 1,100 | 87¢ → 87¢ | $952 | −$3 −0.3% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | No | 1,000 | 92¢ → 95¢ | $945 | +$30 +3.3% |
