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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 77% | 0 pts | −12 pts | 77¢ · 77¢ (<1¢) | $398K | ended |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 24% | — | +12 pts | 23¢ · 24¢ (1¢) | $348K | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h | BattleOrders | Flávio Bolsonaro | SellYes77¢ | $1,187 | −$0 −0.0% | — |
| 2h | franciscojr202520 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes23¢ → 24¢ | $71,089 | +$2,139 +3.0% | 48 |
| 4h | Favorable-Pepper-Brushing3 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes78¢ → 77¢ | $4,339 | −$100 −2.3% | 11 |
| 5h |  timebrotime | Flávio Bolsonaro | SellYes77¢ | $1,553 | +$2 +0.1% | — |
| 5h | megaforest2 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes77¢ | $5,303 | −$51 −1.0% | 11 |
| 5h | okada | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes77¢ | $1,000 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 6h | madkkee3 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | SellYes77¢ | $21,913 | +$67 +0.3% | — |
| 10h |  0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e055 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes16¢ → 24¢ | $16,676 | +$7,891 +47% | 32 |
| 11h | Contestable-Parfait | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyNo77¢ | $5,974 | −$39 −0.6% | 11 |
| 11h |  siick | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes77¢ | $1,160 | −$10 −0.8% | 10 |
| 12h | catatau924 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes23¢ → 24¢ | $22,417 | +$674 +3.0% | 31 |
| 13h | telesns | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes22¢ → 24¢ | $1,325 | +$90 +6.8% | 12 |
| 13h | Black-Creditor | Flávio Bolsonaro | SellNo22¢ → 23¢ | $2,950 | −$161 −5.5% | — |
| 14h | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e053 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes12¢ → 24¢ | $7,134 | −$6,854 −96% | — |
| 14h |  tourists | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyNo78¢ → 77¢ | $3,900 | −$75 −1.9% | 11 |
| 14h | josearval | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes78¢ → 77¢ | $10,960 | −$148 −1.4% | 12 |
| 14h | Contestable-Parfait3 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes77¢ | $9,927 | −$40 −0.4% | 12 |
| 14h |  arjennnnn2 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | SellYes81¢ → 77¢ | $59,297 | +$3,282 +5.5% | — |
| 16h | Lulinha2026 | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes23¢ → 24¢ | $1,779 | +$39 +2.2% | 13 |
| 16h | defillama72 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes77¢ | $54,139 | −$342 −0.6% | 18 |
| 16h | micao | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes22¢ → 24¢ | $2,153 | −$147 −6.8% | — |
| 16h | defillama72 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes21¢ → 24¢ | $6,135 | −$863 −14% | — |
| 16h | 0x6c7c…9dc9 | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes77¢ | $1,000 | −$1 −0.1% | 10 |
| 18h | fbet4 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes77¢ | $5,663 | −$22 −0.4% | 11 |
| 18h | Arturfmr | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes24¢ | $1,855 | −$39 −2.1% | 13 |
| 19h | rhyper2 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyNo23¢ | $2,805 | +$53 +1.9% | 16 |
| 19h | Impossible-Flint | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes23¢ → 24¢ | $1,400 | +$30 +2.2% | 12 |
| 20h | nicocardonac | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellNo77¢ | $1,765 | +$11 +0.6% | — |
| 20h | buchalla2 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes77¢ | $19,405 | +$11 +0.1% | 13 |
| 20h | Garox | Flávio Bolsonaro | SellYes76¢ → 77¢ | $1,242 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 20h | themain4 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes84¢ → 77¢ | $20,745 | −$1,744 −8.4% | 12 |
| 21h | azerty02 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes18¢ → 24¢ | $3,694 | +$1,039 +28% | 19 |
| 21h | eventalpha265 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyNo15¢ → 23¢ | $36,153 | +$18,387 +51% | 41 |
| 22h | jhonkd1000 | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes22¢ → 24¢ | $1,396 | −$95 −6.8% | — |
| 22h | symplya363 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | SellYes81¢ → 77¢ | $48,643 | +$2,433 +5.0% | — |
| 22h |  iForgor | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes77¢ | $1,983 | −$5 −0.3% | 10 |
| 22h | tide-rider2 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyNo78¢ → 77¢ | $7,697 | −$148 −1.9% | 11 |
| 22h | 0xMikele2 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | SellNo22¢ → 23¢ | $2,077 | −$96 −4.6% | — |
| 22h |  ScottyNooo | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes23¢ → 24¢ | $1,737 | −$38 −2.2% | — |
| 23h | Metallic-Lobster-Manipulation | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes23¢ → 24¢ | $1,380 | +$30 +2.2% | 12 |
| 23h | Meek-Drummer | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes77¢ | $1,002 | −$2 −0.2% | 10 |
| 23h | Renan20304 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyNo83¢ → 77¢ | $62,968 | −$5,071 −8.1% | 18 |
| 23h | 0xb9ef…0b8b2 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellNo81¢ → 77¢ | $7,116 | +$395 +5.6% | — |
| 23h | DTF26 | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes77¢ | $1,532 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 23h | ScottyNooo | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes76¢ → 77¢ | $4,182 | +$19 +0.5% | 11 |
| 1d | Johnsansculotte2 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | SellYes77¢ | $3,370 | +$30 +0.9% | — |
| 1d | eventalpha2610 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes15¢ → 24¢ | $81,715 | +$48,871 +60% | 58 |
| 1d | brte | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellNo76¢ → 77¢ | $2,280 | −$15 −0.7% | — |
| 1d | Old-Maniac | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes77¢ | $3,095 | +$2 +0.1% | 10 |
| 1d | porkylover | Flávio Bolsonaro | SellYes77¢ | $1,578 | +$5 +0.3% | — |
| 1d |  Albedo003 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes78¢ → 77¢ | $8,141 | −$159 −1.9% | 11 |
| 1d | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e054 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyNo16¢ → 23¢ | $5,556 | +$2,426 +44% | 22 |
| 1d | timetowander3 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyNo23¢ | $6,873 | +$132 +1.9% | 21 |
| 1d | sortudo262 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyNo18¢ → 23¢ | $2,062 | +$666 +32% | 15 |
| 1d | PetrGrepl | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellNo78¢ → 77¢ | $1,560 | +$30 +1.9% | — |
| 1d | tennisclub2 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes82¢ → 77¢ | $3,909 | −$235 −6.0% | 10 |
| 1d | DTF26 | Flávio Bolsonaro | SellYes78¢ → 77¢ | $1,721 | +$33 +1.9% | — |
| 1d | Disloyal-Brunch | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes23¢ → 24¢ | $10,094 | +$434 +4.3% | 24 |
| 1d |  MisTKy2 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | SellYes78¢ → 77¢ | $13,713 | +$262 +1.9% | — |
| 1d | Torthic | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyNo21¢ → 23¢ | $2,056 | +$241 +12% | 14 |
ScottyNooo269,680 sharesA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 77¢ for Flávio Bolsonaro means the market gives it about 77%.