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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 (0 bps) | 97% | — | +1 pts | 97¢ · 97¢ (<1¢) | $9.52K | in 75d |
| 1 (25 bps) | 1% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $16K | in 75d |
| 2 (50 bps) | 1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $4.26K | in 75d |
| 3 (75 bps) | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $3.07K | in 75d |
| 4 (100 bps) | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $4.4K | in 75d |
| 5 (125 bps) | <1% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | $10K | in 75d |
| 6 (150 bps) | <1% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | $5.04K | in 75d |
| 7 (175 bps) | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $5.51K | in 75d |
| 8 (200 bps) | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $10K | in 75d |
| 9 (225 bps) | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 75d |
| 10 (250 bps) | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $10K | in 75d |
| 11 (275 bps) | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $10K | in 75d |
| 12+ (300+ bps) | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $76K | in 75d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6h | SplendidAmadeus | 0 (0 bps) | SellYes97¢ | $4,550 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 9h | 0x96fc…cf382 fills | 1 (25 bps) | SellNo99¢ | $2,345 | −$14 −0.6% | — |
| 1d | BlackEay | 3 (75 bps) | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | −$3 −0.2% | 10 |
| 1d | 0xef81…ac8c | 2 (50 bps) | SellNo100¢ | $1,972 | $0 0.0% | — |
| 3d | forgetfuldory4 fills | 0 (0 bps) | BuyYes96¢ → 97¢ | $13,507 | +$58 +0.4% | 12 |
| 3d | ggdajiba2 fills | 0 (0 bps) | BuyYes96¢ → 97¢ | $3,968 | +$17 +0.4% | 12 |
| 3d | QMG-CORE2 fills | 0 (0 bps) | BuyYes96¢ → 97¢ | $7,057 | +$84 +1.2% | 13 |
| 3d | QMG-MACRO | 0 (0 bps) | BuyYes96¢ → 97¢ | $1,332 | +$10 +0.8% | 11 |
| 3d | simpleman2 fills | 0 (0 bps) | SellYes96¢ → 97¢ | $13,240 | −$72 −0.5% | — |
| 5d | 0x21a9…aadc | 0 (0 bps) | SellYes96¢ → 97¢ | $1,321 | −$14 −1.1% | — |
| 5d | plumbis5 fills | 0 (0 bps) | BuyYes88¢ → 97¢ | $39,088 | +$3,705 +9.5% | 18 |
| 5d |  ErnstKuzorra | 0 (0 bps) | SellYes96¢ → 97¢ | $1,187 | −$14 −1.2% | — |
| 5d | WarriorH | 0 (0 bps) | BuyYes96¢ → 97¢ | $1,116 | +$13 +1.1% | 11 |
| 6d | kosaks3 fills | 0 (0 bps) | BuyYes96¢ → 97¢ | $6,480 | +$47 +0.7% | 13 |
| 6d | iraa32 fills | 0 (0 bps) | BuyYes96¢ → 97¢ | $3,824 | +$50 +1.3% | 13 |
| 8d | 0xb14f…0b38 | 2 (50 bps) | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,273 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 8d | elPolloLoco | 2 (50 bps) | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,996 | −$12 −0.4% | — |
| 8d | Inao | 0 (0 bps) | BuyYes96¢ → 97¢ | $2,020 | +$26 +1.3% | 12 |
| 9d | 0x89d2…1814 | 0 (0 bps) | SellYes96¢ → 97¢ | $1,039 | −$15 −1.4% | — |
| 9d | baofu168 | 0 (0 bps) | BuyYes96¢ → 97¢ | $1,497 | +$20 +1.3% | 12 |
| 9d | commeowder2 fills | 0 (0 bps) | SellYes96¢ → 97¢ | $2,453 | −$30 −1.2% | — |
| 9d | 0x76d6…ecc3 | 1 (25 bps) | SellNo98¢ → 99¢ | $1,678 | −$17 −1.0% | — |
| 11d | seadyeces2 fills | 0 (0 bps) | BuyYes91¢ → 97¢ | $2,875 | +$174 +6.1% | 16 |
| 11d | ceeper | 0 (0 bps) | SellYes96¢ → 97¢ | $1,819 | −$21 −1.1% | — |
| 12d | 0xb9cb…5d62 | 1 (25 bps) | SellNo98¢ → 99¢ | $1,560 | −$14 −0.9% | — |
| 13d |  ponczyk | 0 (0 bps) | BuyYes96¢ → 97¢ | $1,055 | +$10 +0.9% | 11 |
| 13d | aiwar3 fills | 0 (0 bps) | BuyYes91¢ → 97¢ | $3,606 | +$238 +6.6% | 16 |
| 13d | uprightuser | 0 (0 bps) | SellYes96¢ → 97¢ | $4,779 | −$64 −1.3% | — |
| 13d | Cbs710 | 0 (0 bps) | SellYes96¢ → 97¢ | $18,878 | −$219 −1.2% | — |
| 14d |  GollumGekko | 0 (0 bps) | SellYes96¢ → 97¢ | $2,075 | −$17 −0.8% | — |
| 14d | Spiderman161716 | 0 (0 bps) | SellYes96¢ → 97¢ | $8,869 | −$65 −0.7% | — |
| 15d | varch01 | 0 (0 bps) | BuyYes97¢ | $1,739 | +$1 +0.1% | 12 |
| 16d | 988776555 | 0 (0 bps) | SellYes97¢ | $5,321 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 16d | Expensive-Stealth | 0 (0 bps) | BuyYes97¢ | $8,200 | +$2 +0.0% | 12 |
| 17d | 0x21a9…aadc | 0 (0 bps) | BuyYes97¢ | $1,330 | +$5 +0.4% | 11 |
| 17d | Advanced-Coverage | 0 (0 bps) | SellYes96¢ → 97¢ | $2,119 | −$12 −0.6% | — |
| 18d | ayali5 fills | 0 (0 bps) | SellYes96¢ → 97¢ | $16,958 | −$101 −0.6% | — |
| 18d | anderson3 | 0 (0 bps) | SellYes97¢ | $10,401 | −$28 −0.3% | — |
| 18d | ll12l12 | 2 (50 bps) | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,147 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 18d | ll12l12 | 2 (50 bps) | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,148 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 18d | anderson33 fills | 0 (0 bps) | BuyYes97¢ | $9,365 | −$32 −0.3% | 12 |
| 18d | ayali6 fills | 0 (0 bps) | BuyYes97¢ | $14,364 | −$13 −0.1% | 12 |
| 19d | banchii3 fills | 0 (0 bps) | SellYes96¢ → 97¢ | $20,115 | −$180 −0.9% | — |
| 20d | banchii7 fills | 0 (0 bps) | BuyYes97¢ | $19,292 | +$49 +0.3% | 12 |
| 20d | Tuda | 0 (0 bps) | SellYes96¢ → 97¢ | $1,149 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 21d | chillballer | 0 (0 bps) | SellYes97¢ | $2,112 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 21d | yoyobb20183 fills | 2 (50 bps) | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,787 | −$41 −1.1% | — |
| 22d | 0x3a53…a162 | 5 (125 bps) | SellNo>99¢ | $4,167 | −$8 −0.2% | — |
| 22d | 0x3a53…a162 | 5 (125 bps) | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,173 | +$2 +0.1% | 10 |
| 22d | 0x3a53…a162 | 2 (50 bps) | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,259 | −$9 −0.2% | — |
| 22d | 0x3a53…a162 | 2 (50 bps) | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,263 | +$4 +0.1% | 10 |
| 23d | Betttttttttnn3 fills | 0 (0 bps) | BuyYes95¢ → 97¢ | $4,741 | +$95 +2.0% | 13 |
| 24d | 0x3b5d…8995 | 1 (25 bps) | SellNo99¢ | $1,174 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 24d | zhuhao3 | 0 (0 bps) | BuyYes97¢ | $1,900 | +$7 +0.4% | 12 |
| 24d | f9f9f9 | 1 (25 bps) | SellNo99¢ | $1,153 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 24d | f9f9f9 | 1 (25 bps) | BuyNo99¢ | $1,154 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 26d | 0x1a3d…cce4 | 1 (25 bps) | SellNo99¢ | $1,016 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 26d | ff66666 | 4 (100 bps) | SellNo>99¢ | $1,058 | +$1 +0.1% | — |
| 26d | ff66666 | 4 (100 bps) | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,059 | −$2 −0.2% | 10 |
| 26d | NoIdea666 | 0 (0 bps) | BuyYes96¢ → 97¢ | $2,020 | +$22 +1.1% | 12 |
ImJustKen57,491 shares
MasamuneTomose38,974 sharesThis market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 97¢ for 0 (0 bps) means the market gives it about 97%.