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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2029 | 24% | −1 pts | +3 pts | 23¢ · 25¢ (2¢) | $5.32K | in 1172d |
| December 31, 2027 | 10% | — | — | 9¢ · 10¢ (1¢) | $452 | in 441d |
| December 31, 2028 | 19% | — | — | 18¢ · 19¢ (1¢) | $180 | in 807d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | WillBeQuant | December 31, 2027 | SellNo90¢ → 91¢ | $1,800 | −$10 −0.6% | — |
| 1d | WillBeQuant | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo91¢ | $1,820 | −$10 −0.5% | 26 |
| 2d | Logan. | December 31, 2027 | BuyYes10¢ | $1,000 | −$50 −5.0% | 40 |
| 2d |  0xwordjnn | December 31, 2027 | SellNo90¢ → 91¢ | $8,351 | −$46 −0.6% | — |
| 2d |  Car4 fills | December 31, 2029 | BuyNo74¢ → 76¢ | $24,866 | +$812 +3.3% | 38 |
| 3d | cryptoincome | December 31, 2028 | BuyNo82¢ | $4,100 | −$25 −0.6% | 32 |
| 3d |  MisTKy | December 31, 2029 | BuyYes22¢ → 24¢ | $5,772 | +$525 +9.1% | 49 |
| 3d |  0x34a9...d74cfd | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo91¢ | $1,729 | −$10 −0.5% | 26 |
| 4d |  knrad | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo91¢ | $4,044 | −$22 −0.5% | 26 |
| 4d |  estuprador | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo91¢ | $4,550 | −$25 −0.5% | 26 |
| 5d |  MEPP3 fills | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo90¢ → 91¢ | $85,200 | +$725 +0.9% | 27 |
| 6d | Harmonious-Mozzarella | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo91¢ | $1,000 | −$5 −0.5% | 26 |
| 7d |  Quandal | December 31, 2027 | SellNo90¢ → 91¢ | $8,100 | −$45 −0.6% | — |
| 8d |  andy29 | December 31, 2027 | SellNo90¢ → 91¢ | $1,080 | −$6 −0.6% | — |
| 8d |  Nopants | December 31, 2027 | SellNo90¢ → 91¢ | $4,500 | −$25 −0.6% | — |
| 8d | sdhyky2 fills | December 31, 2028 | SellNo80¢ → 82¢ | $2,622 | −$55 −2.1% | — |
| 8d | sdhyky | December 31, 2027 | SellNo90¢ → 91¢ | $18,000 | −$100 −0.6% | — |
| 8d |  Galthran | December 31, 2027 | SellNo90¢ → 91¢ | $1,170 | −$7 −0.6% | — |
| 9d | Imperfect-Council | December 31, 2027 | SellNo90¢ → 91¢ | $3,140 | −$17 −0.6% | — |
| 9d | Imperfect-Council | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo91¢ | $3,175 | −$17 −0.5% | 26 |
| 10d | jcsberger | December 31, 2028 | BuyNo82¢ | $1,025 | −$6 −0.6% | 32 |
| 10d | jcsberger | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo91¢ | $2,958 | −$16 −0.5% | 26 |
| 11d |  Medoed69 | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo91¢ | $4,095 | −$23 −0.5% | 26 |
| 12d | andad2 fills | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo91¢ | $5,147 | −$28 −0.5% | 26 |
| 12d | Strong-Generosity | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo91¢ | $1,692 | −$9 −0.5% | 26 |
| 12d | Avamax | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo91¢ | $9,100 | −$50 −0.5% | 26 |
| 12d |  Wunkles | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo91¢ | $10,000 | −$55 −0.5% | 26 |
| 12d |  debased | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo90¢ → 91¢ | $4,697 | +$26 +0.6% | 27 |
| 12d |  occasionalAwareness | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo90¢ → 91¢ | $54,000 | +$300 +0.6% | 27 |
| 12d | plumbis | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo90¢ → 91¢ | $45,000 | +$250 +0.6% | 27 |
| 13d |  tetrase2 fills | December 31, 2027 | SellNo90¢ → 91¢ | $98,506 | −$547 −0.6% | — |
| 13d | Aikal | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo91¢ | $4,459 | −$25 −0.5% | 26 |
| 13d |  themagicofcinema2 fills | December 31, 2027 | SellNo91¢ | $6,099 | +$1 +0.0% | — |
| 13d | tetrase2 fills | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo90¢ → 91¢ | $136,325 | +$757 +0.6% | 27 |
| 13d |  Lolakis | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo90¢ → 91¢ | $4,518 | +$25 +0.6% | 27 |
| 13d | sldwa2 fills | December 31, 2028 | SellNo81¢ → 82¢ | $2,513 | −$16 −0.6% | — |
| 13d | Dull-Obedience | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo90¢ → 91¢ | $2,712 | +$15 +0.6% | 27 |
| 14d | ChungChung1 | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo90¢ → 91¢ | $2,350 | +$13 +0.6% | 27 |
| 14d |  Ahpo | December 31, 2028 | BuyNo80¢ → 82¢ | $11,308 | +$212 +1.9% | 33 |
| 14d | WarriorH | December 31, 2028 | BuyNo81¢ → 82¢ | $2,193 | +$14 +0.6% | 33 |
| 14d | Car2 fills | December 31, 2028 | BuyNo80¢ → 82¢ | $16,000 | +$300 +1.9% | 33 |
| 14d | Car3 fills | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo93¢ → 91¢ | $27,915 | −$654 −2.3% | 25 |
| 14d | puravida | December 31, 2028 | BuyNo79¢ → 82¢ | $1,192 | +$38 +3.2% | 34 |
| 14d |  Tenebrus72 fills | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo90¢ → 91¢ | $6,113 | +$34 +0.6% | 27 |
| 14d | themagicofcinema2 fills | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo88¢ → 91¢ | $2,640 | +$75 +2.8% | 28 |
| 14d | sdhyky | December 31, 2028 | BuyNo79¢ → 82¢ | $1,580 | +$50 +3.2% | 34 |
| 14d | Truthful-Latte | December 31, 2027 | SellNo87¢ → 91¢ | $8,700 | −$350 −4.0% | — |
| 14d | dromedaryy | December 31, 2029 | BuyYes21¢ → 24¢ | $4,752 | +$597 +13% | 48 |
| 14d | dromedaryy | December 31, 2028 | BuyYes16¢ → 19¢ | $14,357 | +$2,037 +14% | 57 |
| 14d | BunCaCham2 fills | December 31, 2027 | SellNo88¢ → 91¢ | $83,242 | −$2,204 −2.6% | — |
| 14d | Complete-Assumption | December 31, 2027 | SellNo92¢ → 91¢ | $19,320 | +$315 +1.6% | — |
| 14d | dromedaryy2 fills | December 31, 2027 | BuyYes7¢ → 10¢ | $44,172 | +$16,680 +38% | 69 |
| 15d |  Isekai | December 31, 2027 | SellNo94¢ → 91¢ | $3,196 | +$119 +3.7% | — |
| 15d | Skaliz | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo95¢ → 91¢ | $4,750 | −$225 −4.7% | 23 |
| 28d | AiBird | December 31, 2029 | SellYes20¢ → 24¢ | $1,000 | −$200 −20% | — |
| 29d |  StarMaster | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo94¢ → 91¢ | $1,880 | −$70 −3.7% | 24 |
| 29d | AiBird | December 31, 2029 | BuyYes20¢ → 24¢ | $1,001 | +$200 +20% | 35 |
| 29d |  0xdc3E831cad | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo93¢ → 91¢ | $4,650 | −$125 −2.7% | 25 |
MisTKy32,723 sharesCar55,969 shares
Alphax2,826 shares
ArmageddonRewardsBilly1,737 shares
yolkhead1,000 shares
VirtualRem600 shares
Noooooooop500 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Anthropic. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 24¢ for December 31, 2029 means the market gives it about 24%.