| US recession by end of 2026?Ends in 105d | No | 7,000 | 74¢ → 93¢ | $6,510 | +$1,305 +25% |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 5,109 | 79¢ → 96¢ | $4,923 | +$910 +23% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?Ends in 74d | No | 3,752 | 88¢ → 98¢ | $3,690 | +$399 +12% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Ends in 52d | Yes | 4,593 | 78¢ → 77¢ | $3,513 | −$69 −1.9% |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?Ends in 74d | Yes | 3,099 | 78¢ → 78¢ | $2,431 | −$0 −0.0% |
| Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Ends in 52d | No | 7,301 | 39¢ → 32¢ | $2,300 | −$552 −19% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 11d | Yes | 16,591 | 15¢ → 14¢ | $2,240 | −$176 −7.3% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseEnds in 17d | Yes | 8,017 | 28¢ → 28¢ | $2,205 | −$40 −1.8% |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Ends in 53d | Yes | 2,401 | 86¢ → 78¢ | $1,872 | −$182 −8.9% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?Ends in 74d | No | 1,900 | 77¢ → 97¢ | $1,849 | +$379 +26% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 2,307 | 66¢ → 71¢ | $1,648 | +$128 +8.4% |
| Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?Ends in 101d | No | 3,741 | 44¢ → 40¢ | $1,496 | −$133 −8.2% |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?Ends in 106d | No | 1,000 | 76¢ → 98¢ | $980 | +$222 +29% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 1,856 | 55¢ → 53¢ | $975 | −$46 −4.5% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 17d | Yes | 1,050 | 78¢ → 91¢ | $950 | +$131 +16% |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?Ends in 74d | No | 969 | 94¢ → 92¢ | $894 | −$20 −2.2% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 1,000 | 78¢ → 89¢ | $885 | +$105 +13% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?Ends in 74d | No | 900 | 37¢ → 98¢ | $884 | +$548 +163% |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,300 | 53¢ → 66¢ | $864 | +$169 +24% |
| Will Swim – BTS be the top song for 2026?Ends in 106d | No | 800 | 54¢ → >99¢ | $799 | +$366 +84% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 5,050 | 30¢ → 15¢ | $760 | −$734 −49% |
| Will Tricia McLaughlin be the next White House Press Secretary?Ends in 440d | No | 750 | 91¢ → 95¢ | $713 | +$34 +5.0% |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 20,000 | 4¢ → 3¢ | $650 | −$134 −17% |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Ends in 17d | No | 2,812 | 23¢ → 23¢ | $633 | −$14 −2.2% |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?Ends in 74d | No | 604 | 95¢ → 98¢ | $592 | +$16 +2.7% |
| Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Ends in 245d | Yes | 9,000 | 7¢ → 7¢ | $585 | −$70 −11% |
| Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 711 | 77¢ → 78¢ | $551 | +$4 +0.6% |
| Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 1,850 | 15¢ → 23¢ | $416 | +$134 +48% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027?Ends in 74d | No | 400 | 95¢ → 98¢ | $393 | +$14 +3.6% |
| Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 476 | 85¢ → 78¢ | $372 | −$33 −8.2% |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 343 | 31¢ → 97¢ | $333 | +$227 +216% |
| Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 29,691 | 1¢ → 1¢ | $327 | +$37 +13% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | No | 600 | 57¢ → 53¢ | $318 | −$25 −7.3% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,200 | 38¢ → 25¢ | $294 | −$160 −35% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?Ends in 18d | No | 458 | 65¢ → 64¢ | $291 | −$7 −2.3% |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?Ends in 17d | Yes | 808 | 32¢ → 32¢ | $261 | +$3 +1.1% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 275 | 62¢ → 95¢ | $260 | +$90 +52% |
| US recession by end of 2027?Ends in 439d | No | 400 | 62¢ → 65¢ | $260 | +$13 +5.2% |
| Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 2,500 | 17¢ → 10¢ | $256 | −$156 −38% |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?Ends in 440d | No | 560 | 33¢ → 44¢ | $248 | +$65 +35% |
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 724 | 37¢ → 32¢ | $228 | −$38 −14% |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?Ends in 5d | No | 243 | 79¢ → 93¢ | $227 | +$35 +18% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | No | 490 | 42¢ → 45¢ | $218 | +$11 +5.2% |
| Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Ends in 52d | Yes | 1,000 | 11¢ → 19¢ | $190 | +$85 +81% |
| Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 200 | 87¢ → 89¢ | $177 | +$3 +1.8% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 150 | 74¢ → 79¢ | $119 | +$8 +6.8% |
| Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 1,321 | 18¢ → 9¢ | $112 | −$122 −52% |
| Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?Ends in 440d | Yes | 704 | 16¢ → 16¢ | $109 | −$4 −3.1% |
| Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 476 | 15¢ → 22¢ | $104 | +$32 +44% |
| Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 100 | 84¢ → 98¢ | $98 | +$14 +16% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?Ends ended | No | 119 | 71¢ → 82¢ | $97 | +$12 +14% |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 16,000 | 4¢ → 1¢ | $88 | −$486 −85% |
| Will Ezra Frech win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?Ends in 74d | No | 201 | 43¢ → 43¢ | $86 | −$1 −1.2% |
| Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Ends in 52d | Yes | 900 | 11¢ → 9¢ | $81 | −$20 −19% |
| Iran leadership change by November 30?Ends in 44d | Yes | 1,000 | 17¢ → 7¢ | $65 | −$103 −61% |
| No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?Ends in 9d | Hike 25 bps | 1,101 | 18¢ → 5¢ | $50 | −$149 −75% |
| Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in September?Ends in 11d | Yes | 450 | 18¢ → 9¢ | $40 | −$40 −50% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 100 | 40¢ → 40¢ | $40 | −$0 −0.9% |
| Negative GDP growth in 2026?Ends in 103d | No | 38 | 82¢ → 97¢ | $37 | +$6 +18% |
| Will Bad Bunny be the #2 searched person on Google this year?Ends in 74d | Yes | 195 | 21¢ → 18¢ | $34 | −$7 −17% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?Ends in 102d | Yes | 50 | 61¢ → 63¢ | $31 | +$1 +2.5% |
| Will Tyreek Hill sign with the Kansas City Chiefs in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 52 | 42¢ → 59¢ | $30 | +$9 +39% |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 500 | 21¢ → 6¢ | $28 | −$78 −74% |
| Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026?Ends in 106d | Yes | 207 | 5¢ → 13¢ | $26 | +$16 +160% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Ends ended | Yes | 83 | 37¢ → 31¢ | $25 | −$5 −17% |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 5,500 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $25 | −$19 −44% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?Ends in 74d | No | 25 | 95¢ → 99¢ | $25 | +$1 +4.1% |
| Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?Ends in 14d | Yes | 750 | 12¢ → 2¢ | $18 | −$72 −80% |
| Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026?Ends in 106d | No | 125 | 73¢ → 14¢ | $17 | −$74 −81% |
| Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?Ends in 440d | Yes | 19 | 52¢ → 90¢ | $17 | +$7 +72% |
| Kash Patel out by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 75 | 62¢ → 19¢ | $14 | −$32 −69% |
| Will Blackstone (BX) beat quarterly earnings?Ends in 4d | Yes | 36 | 37¢ → 32¢ | $12 | −$2 −14% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?Ends in 102d | Yes | 29 | 47¢ → 35¢ | $10 | −$4 −27% |
| Hike 25 bps flips No change for October Fed by October 27?Ends in 10d | Yes | 79 | 25¢ → 12¢ | $9 | −$11 −55% |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 296 | 22¢ → 2¢ | $7 | −$57 −89% |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 2,458 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $6 | −$21 −77% |
| OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize Solution?Ends in 440d | Anthropic | 15 | 50¢ → 41¢ | $6 | −$1 −19% |
| Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?Ends in 440d | Yes | 125 | 5¢ → 4¢ | $5 | −$1 −17% |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the December 2026 meeting?Ends in 60d | Yes | 21 | 32¢ → 14¢ | $3 | −$4 −55% |
| Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?Ends in 17d | Yes | 28 | 12¢ → 10¢ | $3 | −$1 −16% |
| Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 1,075 | 14¢ → <1¢ | $3 | −$150 −98% |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,074 | 3¢ → <1¢ | $3 | −$35 −93% |
| Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 13d | Yes | 1,500 | 1¢ → <1¢ | $2 | −$7 −75% |
| Will Payward announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | Yes | 12 | 15¢ → 14¢ | $2 | −$0 −10% |
| Will over 55 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?Ends in 76d | Yes | 23 | 35¢ → 7¢ | $1 | −$6 −81% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Ends in 224d | Yes | 1 | 31¢ → 63¢ | $1 | +$0 +102% |
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 21 | 68¢ → 4¢ | $1 | −$13 −94% |
| Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?Ends in 17d | Yes | 26 | 9¢ → 3¢ | $1 | −$2 −72% |
| Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Ends in 224d | Yes | 57 | 10¢ → 1¢ | $0 | −$5 −92% |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 26 | 41¢ → 2¢ | $0 | −$10 −96% |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Ends in 52d | Yes | 12 | 4¢ → 2¢ | $0 | −$0 −56% |
| Will Billie Jean – Michael Jackson be the top song for 2026?Ends in 106d | Yes | 115 | 2¢ → <1¢ | $0 | −$3 −98% |
| Will Core PCE YoY be 3.4% in August?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 119 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$16 −100% |
| Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on July 11, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 16 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down - October 15Settled - ready to redeem | Down | 38 | 15¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$6 −100% |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 120 | 76¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$91 −100% |
| Will the announcers say "Qatar" or "Russia" during the Spain vs Belgium FIFA World Cup Match?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 140 | 70¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$98 −100% |
| Will Aryna Sabalenka advance to the Final in Ladies' Singles at Wimbledon 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 30 | 42¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$13 −100% |
| Will the announcers say "Dribble" during the Colombia vs Ghana FIFA World Cup Match?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 110 | 41¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$45 −100% |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 52.5 and 53 million views on day 5?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 22 | 71¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$16 −100% |
