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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 48% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 47¢ · 48¢ (1¢) | $6.27K | in 753d |
| Marco Rubio | 13% | 0 pts | −2 pts | 13¢ · 13¢ (<1¢) | $1.73K | in 753d |
| Tucker Carlson | 3% | — | 0 pts | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $1.56K | in 753d |
| Ron DeSantis | 3% | 0 pts | — | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $15.5K | in 753d |
| Ted Cruz | 2% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $280 | in 753d |
| Donald Trump | 2% | — | 0 pts | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $256 | in 753d |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 2% | — | 0 pts | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $1.45K | in 753d |
| Ivanka Trump | 1% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $123 | in 753d |
| Thomas Massie | 1% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $116 | in 753d |
| Brian Kemp | 1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $20.1K | in 753d |
| Tulsi Gabbard | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $515 | in 753d |
| Pete Hegseth | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $1.87K | in 753d |
| Glenn Youngkin | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $25.1K | in 753d |
| Josh Hawley | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $197 | in 753d |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $195 | in 753d |
| Tom Cotton | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $10.8 | in 753d |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $36.4K | in 753d |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $2.13K | in 753d |
| Katie Britt | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $25.3 | in 753d |
| Rand Paul | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $46.4 | in 753d |
| Candace Owens | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $4.7 | in 753d |
| Nikki Haley | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $53.1 | in 753d |
| Greg Abbott | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $830 | in 753d |
| Elise Stefanik | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $87.3 | in 753d |
| Elon Musk | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $50.1K | in 753d |
| Kristi Noem | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $791 | in 753d |
| Mike Pence | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $2.12K | in 753d |
| Steve Bannon | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $177 | in 753d |
| Kim Kardashian | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $39.5 | in 753d |
| Eric Trump | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $169 | in 753d |
| Joe Kent | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $56.2 | in 753d |
| John N. Kennedy | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $84K | in 753d |
| John McEntee | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $10.1 | in 751d |
| Byron Donalds | <1% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | $6.04 | in 753d |
| Doug Burgum | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | $483K | in 753d |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $20.5K | in 753d |
| Matt Gaetz | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 753d |
| John Thune | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $14.8K | in 753d |
| Tom Brady | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $1.06K | in 753d |
| Erika Kirk | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $4.22K | in 753d |
| Tim Scott | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $2.06K | in 753d |
| Mike Johnson | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 753d |
| Rick Scott | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $1.15K | in 753d |
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap | Lock $1 for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 48% | 43% | 5 pts | $0.986 |
| Marco Rubio | 13% | 17% | 4 pts | $0.979 |
| Tucker Carlson | 3% | 3% | 0 pts | $1.003 |
| Ron DeSantis | 3% | 4% | 2 pts | $0.990 |
| Ted Cruz | 2% | 2% | 0 pts | $1.006 |
| Donald Trump | 2% | 3% | 1 pts | $1.002 |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 2% | 3% | 1 pts | $0.999 |
| Ivanka Trump | 1% | 1% | 0 pts | $1.002 |
| Thomas Massie | 1% | 1% | 0 pts | $1.004 |
| Brian Kemp | 1% | 2% | 1 pts | $0.997 |
| Glenn Youngkin | <1% | 1% | 1 pts | $0.995 |
| Candace Owens | <1% | 1% | 1 pts | $1.009 |
| John N. Kennedy | <1% | 1% | 1 pts | $1.010 |
| Doug Burgum | <1% | 1% | 1 pts | — |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57m | Old-Birthday | Vivek Ramaswamy | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | −$1 −0.1% | 10 |
| 22h | 0x8605…aa832 fills | J.D. Vance | BuyNo50¢ → 52¢ | $3,500 | +$186 +5.3% | 30 |
| 22h | dsgfgre6546yhg | Donald Trump Jr. | SellNo98¢ | $1,109 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 22h | r754yytr5 | Ron DeSantis | SellNo98¢ → 97¢ | $2,223 | +$3 +0.2% | — |
| 22h | r754yytr5 | Ron DeSantis | BuyNo98¢ → 97¢ | $2,225 | −$6 −0.3% | 11 |
| 1d |  bifurcatio | J.D. Vance | BuyNo52¢ | $25,371 | +$372 +1.5% | 30 |
| 1d | stas | Vivek Ramaswamy | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,399 | −$2 −0.1% | 10 |
| 1d | Zoomertrash | Donald Trump | SellNo98¢ | $1,299 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 1d | HERObut | Ron DeSantis | BuyNo98¢ → 97¢ | $1,125 | −$2 −0.2% | 10 |
| 1d | Gugol876ygj7 | Ted Cruz | SellNo98¢ | $3,909 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 2d | Derekzok | Ted Cruz | SellNo98¢ | $4,543 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 2d | Serren | Ted Cruz | SellNo98¢ | $3,446 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 2d | Serren | Ted Cruz | BuyNo98¢ | $3,450 | −$2 −0.1% | 12 |
| 2d | konsomida | J.D. Vance | SellNo51¢ → 52¢ | $4,928 | −$87 −1.8% | — |
| 2d | Ader-515 | Ted Cruz | SellNo98¢ | $2,996 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 2d |  ScottyNooo4 fills | J.D. Vance | BuyNo51¢ → 52¢ | $10,854 | +$194 +1.8% | 30 |
| 3d | Gugol876ygj7 | Ted Cruz | BuyNo98¢ | $4,300 | −$2 −0.1% | 12 |
| 3d | DangerousDAVE-790 | Tucker Carlson | SellNo97¢ | $1,146 | −$3 −0.3% | — |
| 3d | ScottyNooo | Donald Trump | SellNo98¢ | $1,075 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 3d | ScottyNooo | Tucker Carlson | SellNo97¢ | $4,908 | −$8 −0.2% | — |
| 4d | bredgjj | Ted Cruz | SellNo98¢ | $3,836 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 4d | bredgjj | Ted Cruz | BuyNo98¢ | $3,840 | −$2 −0.1% | 12 |
| 4d | r4654eryhtdythrhretsdrhetr | Tucker Carlson | SellNo97¢ | $2,616 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 4d | DangerousDAVE-790 | Tucker Carlson | BuyNo97¢ | $1,150 | −$1 −0.1% | 12 |
| 4d |  emoney | J.D. Vance | BuyYes49¢ → 48¢ | $1,000 | −$23 −2.3% | 23 |
| 5d | xdscgbfdd | Ron DeSantis | SellNo97¢ | $1,020 | +$0 +0.0% | — |
| 5d | gershvald | Ted Cruz | SellNo98¢ | $3,123 | −$1 −0.0% | — |
| 5d | Distprter | Tucker Carlson | SellNo97¢ | $2,797 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 5d | Distprter | Tucker Carlson | BuyNo97¢ | $2,800 | −$1 −0.1% | 12 |
| 5d | Vikrot87 | Tucker Carlson | SellNo97¢ | $3,779 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 6d | xdscgbfdd | Ron DeSantis | BuyNo98¢ → 97¢ | $1,020 | −$1 −0.1% | 10 |
| 6d | sindridek77 | Ted Cruz | SellNo98¢ | $3,496 | −$1 −0.0% | — |
| 6d | sindridek77 | Ted Cruz | BuyNo98¢ | $3,500 | −$2 −0.1% | 12 |
| 6d | goewab | Tucker Carlson | SellNo97¢ | $2,052 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 6d | goewab | Tucker Carlson | BuyNo97¢ | $2,055 | −$1 −0.1% | 12 |
| 7d | ALONEstar55 | Ron DeSantis | SellNo97¢ | $2,918 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 7d | Ader-515 | Ted Cruz | BuyNo98¢ | $2,999 | −$2 −0.1% | 12 |
| 7d | ASBOREAN92 | Ron DeSantis | SellNo97¢ | $2,430 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 7d | Geminae.Columbae | J.D. Vance | SellYes48¢ | $2,614 | +$40 +1.5% | — |
| 8d | try655rdghgjgh | Tucker Carlson | BuyNo97¢ | $2,055 | +$1 +0.1% | 12 |
| 8d | MENDOZA | Ivanka Trump | SellNo99¢ | $4,641 | +$2 +0.1% | — |
| 8d | MENDOZA | Ivanka Trump | BuyNo99¢ | $4,650 | −$12 −0.3% | 11 |
| 8d | fhtr7e4ryhyghk | Ivanka Trump | SellNo99¢ | $4,406 | +$2 +0.1% | — |
| 8d | ALONEstar55 | Ron DeSantis | BuyNo97¢ | $2,915 | +$4 +0.2% | 11 |
| 8d | cameraMNA | Ivanka Trump | BuyNo99¢ | $3,550 | −$9 −0.3% | 11 |
| 8d | Hlopkorob | Ted Cruz | SellNo97¢ → 98¢ | $1,985 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 9d | friensWeAlth | Donald Trump Jr. | SellNo98¢ | $2,450 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 9d | biba.s | Donald Trump Jr. | SellNo98¢ | $2,046 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 9d | biba.s | Donald Trump Jr. | BuyNo99¢ → 98¢ | $2,050 | −$3 −0.2% | 11 |
| 9d | hOOOOOOO | Katie Britt | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,010 | −$1 −0.1% | 10 |
| 9d | hOOOOOOO | Vivek Ramaswamy | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,010 | −$1 −0.1% | 10 |
| 10d | friensWeAlth | Donald Trump Jr. | BuyNo99¢ → 98¢ | $2,455 | −$4 −0.2% | 11 |
| 10d | Pokrw007 | Tucker Carlson | BuyNo97¢ | $1,267 | +$1 +0.1% | 12 |
| 10d | konsomida2 fills | J.D. Vance | BuyNo50¢ → 52¢ | $4,783 | +$234 +4.9% | 30 |
| 11d | 5476346568 | Ted Cruz | SellNo98¢ | $3,047 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 11d | 5476346568 | Ted Cruz | BuyNo98¢ | $3,050 | +$2 +0.1% | 12 |
| 11d | suntori3 fills | J.D. Vance | SellYes51¢ → 48¢ | $4,738 | +$276 +5.8% | — |
| 11d | dsgfgre6546yhg | Donald Trump Jr. | BuyNo99¢ → 98¢ | $1,111 | −$2 −0.2% | 11 |
| 12d | dushen009 | Donald Trump Jr. | BuyNo99¢ → 98¢ | $1,478 | −$2 −0.2% | 11 |
| 12d | Zoomertrash | Donald Trump | BuyNo98¢ | $1,300 | −$1 −0.1% | 11 |
Brokie331,698 shares
PantheraUncia114,005 shares
Cadabra110,694 sharesbifurcatio49,175 shares
Polybius10,000 shares
Barboncino10,000 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 48¢ for J.D. Vance means the market gives it about 48%.