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Polymarket · Politics
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | 61% | +3 pts | — | 61¢ · 61¢ (<1¢) | $35.5K | in 18d |
| No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | 34% | +1 pts | — | 34¢ · 34¢ (<1¢) | $25.2K | in 18d |
| Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate | 3% | −1 pts | — | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $1.97K | in 18d |
| Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate | 2% | −1 pts | — | 2¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $5.82K | in 18d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8h | ZhouCD | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | SellNo39¢ | $2,346 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 8h | skydodo | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | SellNo39¢ | $1,134 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 11h |  aenews2 | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | BuyYes59¢ → 61¢ | $11,973 | +$418 +3.5% | 40 |
| 11h | aenews2 | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | BuyYes33¢ → 34¢ | $1,991 | +$57 +2.8% | 28 |
| 11h |  bigdihhh888 | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | BuyYes59¢ → 61¢ | $1,095 | +$27 +2.5% | 22 |
| 18h |  CryptoLiu | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | SellYes33¢ → 34¢ | $1,566 | −$44 −2.8% | — |
| 18h | CryptoLiu | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | BuyYes33¢ → 34¢ | $2,167 | +$66 +3.0% | 29 |
| 4d | 1nvoker1 | Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate | BuyNo96¢ → 98¢ | $1,918 | +$33 +1.7% | 23 |
| 4d | title1 | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | BuyNo66¢ | $1,492 | −$10 −0.7% | 25 |
| 4d |  Car | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | BuyYes58¢ → 61¢ | $1,348 | +$56 +4.1% | 23 |
coranix3,400 shares
0xwordjnn2,637 shares
Haradwaith2,000 shares
Digital-Boy664 sharesThe rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/urg.pdf
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 61¢ for No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate means the market gives it about 61%.
