| Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Ends in 17d | Yes | 3,951 | 92¢ → 91¢ | $3,583 | −$44 −1.2% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 4,000 | 56¢ → 88¢ | $3,500 | +$1,258 +56% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 4,105 | 73¢ → 78¢ | $3,181 | +$177 +5.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 25,000 | 15¢ → 12¢ | $2,875 | −$916 −24% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | Yes | 3,498 | 84¢ → 77¢ | $2,690 | −$248 −8.4% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 3,000 | 83¢ → 85¢ | $2,535 | +$50 +2.0% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 13d | Yes | 3,000 | 78¢ → 81¢ | $2,415 | +$88 +3.8% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 3,585 | 39¢ → 64¢ | $2,295 | +$900 +64% |
| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Ends in 806d | No | 3,074 | 76¢ → 74¢ | $2,260 | −$87 −3.7% |
| Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | Yes | 16,158 | 12¢ → 13¢ | $2,020 | +$108 +5.7% |
| Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Ends in 806d | No | 2,744 | 74¢ → 74¢ | $2,017 | −$13 −0.6% |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 17d | No | 2,200 | 85¢ → 91¢ | $1,991 | +$127 +6.8% |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?Ends in 17d | No | 2,000 | 97¢ → 96¢ | $1,929 | −$1 −0.1% |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet?Ends in 75d | Yes | 8,383 | 35¢ → 18¢ | $1,509 | −$1,453 −49% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Ends in 13d | No | 1,517 | 39¢ → 93¢ | $1,403 | +$817 +139% |
| Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | No | 1,723 | 79¢ → 80¢ | $1,369 | +$9 +0.6% |
| Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Ends in 806d | No | 1,831 | 72¢ → 75¢ | $1,364 | +$53 +4.0% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?Ends in 1d | Yes | 1,399 | 96¢ → 97¢ | $1,350 | +$12 +0.9% |
| Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Ends in 806d | Yes | 5,601 | 20¢ → 21¢ | $1,148 | +$55 +5.0% |
| US imports Russian diesel by November 30?Ends in 44d | No | 1,670 | 66¢ → 67¢ | $1,111 | +$11 +1.0% |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 1,158 | 66¢ → 86¢ | $996 | +$227 +30% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 1,000 | 68¢ → 93¢ | $930 | +$253 +37% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 1,000 | 86¢ → 87¢ | $869 | +$12 +1.4% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 1,000 | 82¢ → 87¢ | $865 | +$45 +5.5% |
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 881 | 68¢ → 94¢ | $824 | +$225 +38% |
| Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2026 World Chess Championship?Ends in 256d | Yes | 3,000 | 31¢ → 27¢ | $795 | −$130 −14% |
| Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | No | 1,000 | 80¢ → 80¢ | $795 | −$5 −0.6% |
| Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?Ends in 1171d | No | 1,111 | 75¢ → 72¢ | $795 | −$34 −4.1% |
| US imports Russian diesel by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 800 | 64¢ → 94¢ | $754 | +$239 +46% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 17d | Yes | 800 | 80¢ → 91¢ | $724 | +$82 +13% |
| Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | Yes | 5,190 | 11¢ → 12¢ | $597 | +$7 +1.3% |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)Ends in 13d | No | 510 | 33¢ → 96¢ | $487 | +$319 +190% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 605 | 76¢ → 76¢ | $457 | −$0 −0.0% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 960 | 53¢ → 48¢ | $456 | −$53 −10% |
| Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | No | 452 | 85¢ → 86¢ | $386 | +$2 +0.6% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?Ends in 10h | Yes | 391 | 97¢ → 98¢ | $385 | +$4 +1.1% |
| Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | No | 400 | 83¢ → 86¢ | $342 | +$10 +3.0% |
| Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 410 | 79¢ → 81¢ | $330 | +$4 +1.3% |
| Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?Ends in 806d | Yes | 1,514 | 19¢ → 20¢ | $295 | +$8 +2.6% |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 400 | 61¢ → 70¢ | $278 | +$32 +13% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Ends in 44d | Yes | 6,000 | 6¢ → 5¢ | $270 | −$60 −18% |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 265 | 70¢ → 95¢ | $251 | +$64 +34% |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 400 | 65¢ → 63¢ | $250 | −$10 −3.8% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,792 | 18¢ → 13¢ | $224 | −$107 −32% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 800 | 27¢ → 24¢ | $188 | −$25 −12% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Ends in 752d | Yes | 4,220 | 4¢ → 4¢ | $173 | +$4 +2.3% |
| Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 200 | 78¢ → 87¢ | $173 | +$17 +11% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 1,000 | 8¢ → 17¢ | $166 | +$87 +111% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 200 | 70¢ → 82¢ | $163 | +$24 +17% |
| Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | Yes | 1,816 | 7¢ → 8¢ | $136 | +$9 +7.1% |
| Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 183d | Yes | 5,105 | 4¢ → 2¢ | $110 | −$76 −41% |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 120 | 77¢ → 85¢ | $102 | +$10 +10% |
| Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 256d | Yes | 271 | 45¢ → 28¢ | $75 | −$47 −39% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?Ends in 106d | No | 89 | 71¢ → 79¢ | $70 | +$7 +11% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Ends in 752d | Yes | 330 | 5¢ → 13¢ | $43 | +$28 +183% |
| Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 200 | 20¢ → 21¢ | $41 | +$1 +2.5% |
| Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 200 | 20¢ → 21¢ | $41 | +$1 +2.5% |
| Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?Ends in 806d | Yes | 207 | 16¢ → 17¢ | $34 | +$1 +2.4% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Ends in 29d | No | 60 | 40¢ → 45¢ | $27 | +$3 +11% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 37 | 42¢ → 66¢ | $24 | +$9 +58% |
| Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?Ends in 14d | Yes | 973 | 10¢ → 2¢ | $23 | −$70 −75% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 17 | 84¢ → 97¢ | $16 | +$2 +16% |
| Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 13 | 81¢ → 96¢ | $13 | +$2 +19% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 10 | 78¢ → 94¢ | $9 | +$2 +19% |
| Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 10 | 87¢ → 93¢ | $9 | +$1 +7.0% |
| Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 10 | 51¢ → 91¢ | $9 | +$4 +77% |
| Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 183d | Yes | 8,500 | <1¢ → <1¢ | $9 | $0 0.0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?Ends in 165d | No | 12 | 61¢ → 70¢ | $8 | +$1 +14% |
| Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 12 | 42¢ → 40¢ | $5 | −$0 −6.0% |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 5 | 80¢ → 94¢ | $5 | +$1 +17% |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 5 | 70¢ → 74¢ | $4 | +$0 +5.0% |
| Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?Ends in 806d | Yes | 5 | 18¢ → 23¢ | $1 | +$0 +28% |
| Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | Yes | 7 | 9¢ → 11¢ | $1 | +$0 +17% |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 3 | 0¢ → 18¢ | $1 | +$1 +0.0% |
| Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | Yes | 3 | 16¢ → 16¢ | $0 | −$0 −3.9% |
| Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 9 | 6¢ → 3¢ | $0 | −$0 −52% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 3,590 | 9¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$330 −100% |
| Will China win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 500 | 10¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$50 −100% |
| Will United States of America win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 825 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$59 −100% |
| Will France win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,282 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$16 −100% |
| Trump renames AI by September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 200 | 32¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$64 −100% |
| EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by December 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 6,061 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$145 −100% |
| Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 327 | 13¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$42 −100% |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 30,010 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$75 −100% |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 250 | 6¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$15 −100% |
| Will Uzbekistan win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,120 | 49¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$551 −100% |
| Trump renames AI by December 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,281 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$45 −100% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,021 | 70¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$719 −100% |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by November 15?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 500 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 100 | 16¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$16 −100% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,208 | 76¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$924 −100% |
| Will Bitget resume withdrawals by September 27, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,457 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$64 −100% |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 186 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 3,060 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$209 −100% |
| Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 203 | 32¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$64 −100% |
| Will Ukraine win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,000 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 4,000 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$153 −100% |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by November 30?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 500 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$1 −100% |
| Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by October 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 200 | 12¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$24 −100% |
