Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 17% | +3 pts | +3 pts | 16¢ · 17¢ (1¢) | $56.2K | in 76d |
| October 31 | 5% | +1 pts | −1 pts | 5¢ · 5¢ (<1¢) | $40.5K | in 15d |
| November 30 | 12% | +2 pts | — | 11¢ · 12¢ (1¢) | $37.7K | in 45d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h | megaforest3 fills | October 31 | SellNo95¢ | $6,202 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 16h | monitoringthesituation1 | November 30 | BuyYes11¢ → 12¢ | $1,481 | +$94 +6.4% | 10 |
| 16h | monitoringthesituation12 fills | December 31 | BuyYes18¢ → 17¢ | $6,880 | −$496 −7.2% | 26 |
| 20h |  0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05 | November 30 | BuyYes10¢ → 12¢ | $1,000 | +$150 +15% | 6 |
| 1d |  zthunderfury4 fills | October 31 | BuyNo93¢ → 95¢ | $13,656 | +$372 +2.7% | 9 |
| 1d |  Atlantislq2 fills | December 31 | SellYes13¢ → 17¢ | $6,626 | −$1,507 −23% | — |
| 1d | Renan203010 fills | December 31 | SellNo83¢ → 84¢ | $58,708 | −$57 −0.1% | — |
| 1d |  adonpoli2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo84¢ | $3,631 | −$11 −0.3% | 7 |
| 2d |  peterfromfamilyguy | December 31 | SellNo84¢ | $1,683 | +$10 +0.6% | — |
| 2d | 0xef97…ab2c | October 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 95¢ | $4,800 | −$42 −0.9% | 5 |
| 2d | Paul973973 | October 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 95¢ | $5,000 | −$44 −0.9% | 5 |
| 3d |  Ko-san-1234 fills | December 31 | BuyNo84¢ | $7,081 | −$82 −1.2% | 9 |
| 3d | Ko-san-1236 fills | October 31 | SellNo93¢ → 95¢ | $20,089 | −$529 −2.6% | — |
| 3d | Alpheo | October 31 | BuyNo95¢ | $4,081 | +$6 +0.2% | 5 |
| 3d | GOLADS962 fills | October 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $6,210 | +$70 +1.1% | 6 |
| 3d | 65765757 | December 31 | SellNo82¢ → 84¢ | $9,701 | −$177 −1.8% | — |
| 3d | sdhyky | November 30 | BuyNo84¢ → 89¢ | $1,500 | +$76 +5.1% | 6 |
| 4d | thoodr4 fills | October 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $9,430 | +$85 +0.9% | 8 |
| 6d |  Tigerofthehood | October 31 | BuyNo93¢ → 95¢ | $9,300 | +$215 +2.3% | 8 |
| 6d | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05 | December 31 | BuyYes16¢ → 17¢ | $1,223 | +$38 +3.1% | 7 |
| 6d |  BigRabbit | October 31 | BuyYes7¢ → 5¢ | $1,117 | −$343 −31% | 7 |
| 6d |  tetrase | October 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $2,820 | +$35 +1.2% | 5 |
| 6d |  paddaa | December 31 | SellNo84¢ | $7,906 | +$47 +0.6% | — |
| 6d | LulaVaiPerder | December 31 | SellNo86¢ → 84¢ | $1,180 | +$34 +2.9% | — |
| 7d | Renan203014 fills | December 31 | BuyNo82¢ → 84¢ | $127,419 | +$1,637 +1.3% | 16 |
| 7d | WarriorH6 fills | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 84¢ | $14,595 | +$47 +0.3% | 15 |
| 7d |  classified2 fills | October 31 | BuyNo87¢ → 95¢ | $7,740 | +$688 +8.9% | 10 |
| 7d | paddaa | December 31 | BuyNo85¢ → 84¢ | $8,000 | −$141 −1.8% | 10 |
| 7d | 0xd640…480c3 fills | December 31 | BuyNo85¢ → 84¢ | $4,325 | −$76 −1.8% | 7 |
| 7d | adonpoli2 fills | October 31 | BuyNo93¢ → 95¢ | $5,194 | +$120 +2.3% | 6 |
| 7d |  RememberAmalek3 fills | October 31 | BuyYes8¢ → 5¢ | $4,438 | −$1,865 −42% | 24 |
| 7d | BigRabbit2 fills | December 31 | BuyYes18¢ → 17¢ | $3,500 | −$200 −5.7% | 17 |
| 9d | Bet1nthedark | December 31 | SellNo84¢ | $3,276 | +$20 +0.6% | — |
| 9d | SuperavitFiscal2 fills | October 31 | SellNo93¢ → 95¢ | $15,732 | −$317 −2.0% | — |
| 9d | bukajkeceram79802 fills | December 31 | BuyNo84¢ | $5,500 | −$56 −1.0% | 8 |
| 9d | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | December 31 | SellNo84¢ | $2,520 | +$15 +0.6% | — |
| 10d | 657657572 fills | October 31 | SellNo93¢ → 95¢ | $15,515 | −$428 −2.8% | — |
| 10d | rainbowlilies | December 31 | BuyYes15¢ → 17¢ | $1,210 | +$121 +10% | 7 |
| 11d |  yen4u | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,250 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 11d |  roroelguapo2 fills | October 31 | SellNo94¢ → 95¢ | $5,264 | −$64 −1.2% | — |
| 11d | nedsta | December 31 | BuyNo86¢ → 84¢ | $2,580 | −$75 −2.9% | 6 |
| 11d | marchonnow3 fills | October 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $10,936 | +$178 +1.6% | 8 |
| 11d | 2KTrade | October 31 | BuyNo95¢ | $1,765 | +$3 +0.2% | 5 |
| 11d | megaforest8 fills | October 31 | BuyNo91¢ → 95¢ | $35,053 | +$1,787 +5.1% | 10 |
| 12d | nonkenny90 | October 31 | BuyNo95¢ | $1,805 | +$3 +0.2% | 5 |
| 12d | tr1000 | October 31 | BuyNo95¢ | $4,369 | +$7 +0.2% | 5 |
| 12d | SuperavitFiscal4 fills | October 31 | BuyNo93¢ → 95¢ | $17,662 | +$481 +2.7% | 9 |
| 12d | DiaMat | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 84¢ | $2,490 | +$15 +0.6% | 6 |
| 12d | DiaMat2 fills | October 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $7,970 | +$118 +1.5% | 7 |
| 12d | Bukaj08894 fills | October 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 95¢ | $15,000 | +$524 +3.5% | 9 |
| 12d | RR344KK | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 84¢ | $2,004 | +$12 +0.6% | 6 |
| 12d | 657657577 fills | December 31 | BuyNo80¢ → 84¢ | $76,188 | +$3,085 +4.0% | 17 |
| 12d | 657657575 fills | October 31 | BuyNo89¢ → 95¢ | $15,930 | +$1,142 +7.2% | 11 |
| 12d |  qizhan3 fills | December 31 | BuyNo84¢ | $8,173 | −$31 −0.4% | 10 |
| 12d | Tigerofthehood2 fills | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | SellNo>99¢ | $24,224 | −$24 −0.1% | — |
| 12d | groth | December 31 | SellNo82¢ → 84¢ | $1,230 | −$23 −1.8% | — |
| 12d |  GayPride | December 31 | BuyYes17¢ | $3,972 | −$117 −2.9% | 18 |
| 12d | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | December 31 | BuyNo84¢ | $1,680 | −$10 −0.6% | 5 |
| 12d | nibblemaxxing | December 31 | BuyNo84¢ | $1,272 | −$8 −0.6% | 5 |
| 12d |  mr.ozi | December 31 | BuyNo83¢ → 84¢ | $26,173 | +$158 +0.6% | 15 |
RememberAmalek223,581 sharesGayPride65,477 sharesBigRabbit60,000 shares0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e0520,643 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 17¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 17%.
