| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 86,139 | 67¢ → 87¢ | $74,812 | +$16,863 +29% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | No | 52,810 | 77¢ → 77¢ | $40,400 | −$420 −1.0% |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?Ends in 17d | No | 23,257 | 95¢ → 99¢ | $22,920 | +$831 +3.8% |
| Iran leadership change by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 21,236 | 97¢ → 98¢ | $20,822 | +$240 +1.2% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?Ends in 1d | Yes | 19,246 | 94¢ → 96¢ | $18,456 | +$419 +2.3% |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Ends in 17d | Yes | 21,438 | 77¢ → 78¢ | $16,614 | +$107 +0.6% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Ends in 29d | Yes | 27,492 | 57¢ → 56¢ | $15,258 | −$518 −3.3% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 13d | Yes | 16,106 | 84¢ → 85¢ | $13,690 | +$232 +1.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?Ends in 1d | Yes | 14,000 | 93¢ → 98¢ | $13,685 | +$608 +4.7% |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Ends in 17d | Yes | 14,580 | 91¢ → 91¢ | $13,225 | −$18 −0.1% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?Ends in 8h | Yes | 10,358 | 98¢ → 99¢ | $10,239 | +$88 +0.9% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 10,163 | 93¢ → 94¢ | $9,513 | +$54 +0.6% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 13d | No | 42,624 | 19¢ → 20¢ | $8,312 | +$63 +0.8% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 7,964 | 99¢ → 99¢ | $7,920 | +$49 +0.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Ends in 43d | Yes | 10,320 | 62¢ → 69¢ | $7,069 | +$698 +11% |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 7,220 | 97¢ → 97¢ | $7,021 | +$50 +0.7% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Ends in 43d | Yes | 16,132 | 39¢ → 40¢ | $6,372 | +$60 +1.0% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 55,330 | 21¢ → 12¢ | $6,363 | −$5,222 −45% |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?Ends in 17d | No | 5,954 | 96¢ → 96¢ | $5,739 | −$5 −0.1% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Ends in 8d | Yes | 12,901 | 40¢ → 41¢ | $5,225 | +$87 +1.7% |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Ends in 17d | Yes | 5,344 | 93¢ → 96¢ | $5,151 | +$201 +4.1% |
| Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?Ends in 17d | No | 5,000 | 96¢ → 99¢ | $4,943 | +$158 +3.3% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 4,830 | 94¢ → 96¢ | $4,632 | +$86 +1.9% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Ends in 8d | Yes | 19,762 | 18¢ → 21¢ | $4,051 | +$411 +11% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Ends in 74d | No | 5,687 | 66¢ → 68¢ | $3,867 | +$111 +3.0% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseEnds in 17d | No | 10,000 | 38¢ → 38¢ | $3,750 | −$50 −1.3% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Ends in 74d | No | 5,778 | 42¢ → 54¢ | $3,091 | +$691 +29% |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?Ends in 17d | Yes | 57,908 | 3¢ → 5¢ | $2,953 | +$1,164 +65% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 40,485 | 6¢ → 7¢ | $2,632 | +$129 +5.2% |
| Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 2,513 | 95¢ → 96¢ | $2,404 | +$29 +1.2% |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?Ends in 17d | No | 2,324 | 97¢ → 99¢ | $2,292 | +$46 +2.0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?Ends in 256d | Yes | 8,881 | 23¢ → 25¢ | $2,176 | +$133 +6.5% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 2,102 | 99¢ → 96¢ | $2,028 | −$45 −2.2% |
| Trump out as President before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 2,000 | 96¢ → 96¢ | $1,923 | +$5 +0.3% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 1,980 | 97¢ → 97¢ | $1,916 | −$3 −0.2% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?Ends in 4d | No | 41,929 | 7¢ → 5¢ | $1,887 | −$916 −33% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Ends in 22d | Yes | 2,490 | 65¢ → 70¢ | $1,743 | +$135 +8.4% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Ends in 7d | No | 14,042 | 15¢ → 12¢ | $1,615 | −$465 −22% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?Ends in 8d | No | 1,741 | 90¢ → 90¢ | $1,573 | +$9 +0.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Ends in 29d | No | 5,227 | 28¢ → 30¢ | $1,542 | +$69 +4.6% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?Ends in 36d | Yes | 2,997 | 46¢ → 50¢ | $1,484 | +$91 +6.6% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?Ends in 8d | Yes | 4,687 | 28¢ → 28¢ | $1,336 | +$20 +1.5% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 1,277 | 96¢ → 97¢ | $1,241 | +$20 +1.7% |
| Iran leadership change by November 30?Ends in 44d | Yes | 17,951 | 6¢ → 7¢ | $1,167 | +$97 +9.1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 9,508 | 13¢ → 12¢ | $1,093 | −$176 −14% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?Ends in 14d | Yes | 11,999 | 8¢ → 9¢ | $1,068 | +$151 +16% |
| Will Israel election happen as scheduled?Ends in 10d | Yes | 1,166 | 90¢ → 89¢ | $1,039 | −$6 −0.6% |
| Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 1,000 | 99¢ → 100¢ | $995 | +$3 +0.3% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Ends in 74d | No | 4,734 | 16¢ → 18¢ | $852 | +$87 +11% |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 5,411 | 10¢ → 13¢ | $676 | +$135 +25% |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 599 | 98¢ → 99¢ | $594 | +$7 +1.2% |
| Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?Ends in 103d | No | 584 | 97¢ → >99¢ | $581 | +$16 +2.8% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 10,000 | 5¢ → 6¢ | $550 | +$50 +10.0% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Ends ended | No | 1,060 | 58¢ → 47¢ | $493 | −$122 −20% |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 480 | 76¢ → 97¢ | $464 | +$99 +27% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 451 | 98¢ → 99¢ | $448 | +$4 +0.9% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Ends in 5d | No | 4,030 | 12¢ → 9¢ | $343 | −$142 −29% |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?Ends in 17d | Yes | 19,369 | 4¢ → 2¢ | $310 | −$484 −61% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 4,878 | 6¢ → 6¢ | $268 | −$24 −8.3% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: OctoberEnds in 13d | Something | 5,370 | 6¢ → 5¢ | $242 | −$58 −19% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?Ends in 8d | Yes | 16,398 | 1¢ → 1¢ | $221 | +$5 +2.4% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Ends in 11d | Yes | 205 | 83¢ → 85¢ | $173 | +$3 +1.8% |
| Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Ends in 74d | No | 130 | 98¢ → >99¢ | $130 | +$2 +1.6% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 120 | 97¢ → 99¢ | $119 | +$2 +2.0% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 365 | 35¢ → 31¢ | $111 | −$15 −12% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | No | 104 | 72¢ → 81¢ | $84 | +$9 +12% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 11d | Yes | 52,941 | 20¢ → <1¢ | $79 | −$10,509 −99% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?Ends in 8d | Yes | 29,604 | <1¢ → <1¢ | $44 | −$39 −47% |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Ends in 17d | No | 174 | 25¢ → 23¢ | $39 | −$4 −10.0% |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 21?Ends in 3d | No | 1,111 | 3¢ → 3¢ | $37 | +$2 +6.5% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | No | 86 | 28¢ → 33¢ | $28 | +$4 +16% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 11d | Yes | 7,699 | 20¢ → <1¢ | $27 | −$1,513 −98% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 120 | 19¢ → 19¢ | $23 | $0 0.0% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?Ends in 8d | Yes | 13,872 | <1¢ → <1¢ | $21 | −$7 −24% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?Ends in 36d | No | 28 | 51¢ → 51¢ | $14 | −$0 −1.0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 424 | 4¢ → 3¢ | $13 | −$4 −23% |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 10 | 81¢ → 97¢ | $10 | +$2 +20% |
| Will Amanda Lind be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Ends ended | Yes | 19,262 | 3¢ → <1¢ | $10 | −$525 −98% |
| Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Ends ended | Yes | 19,262 | 3¢ → <1¢ | $10 | −$525 −98% |
| Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Ends ended | Yes | 19,262 | 3¢ → <1¢ | $10 | −$525 −98% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?Ends in 44d | Yes | 14 | 24¢ → 20¢ | $3 | −$1 −19% |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 3 | 15¢ → 84¢ | $2 | +$2 +457% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 4 | 15¢ → 12¢ | $0 | −$0 −23% |
| Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 116,404 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3,637 −100% |
| Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 116,404 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3,638 −100% |
| Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 116,404 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3,637 −100% |
| Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 116,404 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3,637 −100% |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 116,404 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3,637 −100% |
| Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 116,404 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3,637 −100% |
| Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 116,404 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3,637 −100% |
| Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 116,404 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3,637 −100% |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 116,404 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3,637 −100% |
| Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 116,404 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3,637 −100% |
| Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 116,404 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3,637 −100% |
| Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 116,404 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3,637 −100% |
| Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 116,404 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3,637 −100% |
| Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 116,404 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3,637 −100% |
| Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 116,404 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$3,637 −100% |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 11,416 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$121 −100% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 2,000 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
