Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Polymarket · Politics
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro <4% | 41% | — | +13 pts | 40¢ · 41¢ (1¢) | $25.5K | in 9d |
| Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% | 28% | +1 pts | −20 pts | 28¢ · 29¢ (1¢) | $29.9K | in 9d |
| Lula da Silva <4% | 21% | +1 pts | +10 pts | 20¢ · 21¢ (1¢) | $23.1K | in 9d |
| Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | 9% | −2 pts | −6 pts | 8¢ · 9¢ (1¢) | $184K | in 9d |
| Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+ | 3% | +1 pts | +2 pts | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $70.3K | in 9d |
| Lula da Silva 4-8% | 1% | — | +1 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $18.4K | in 9d |
| Lula da Silva 8-12% | <1% | 0 pts | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $14.2K | in 9d |
| Lula da Silva 12%+ | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $13.4K | in 9d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h | fbet | Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | BuyNo92¢ | $1,840 | −$10 −0.5% | 10 |
| 2h | Mximus | Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | BuyNo92¢ | $2,594 | −$14 −0.5% | 10 |
| 3h |  mewmew1 | Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | BuyNo91¢ → 92¢ | $9,006 | +$2 +0.0% | 11 |
| 13h | Extroverted-Tofu3 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | BuyYes10¢ → 9¢ | $3,906 | −$421 −11% | 22 |
| 13h | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed2 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | SellNo92¢ | $3,613 | +$25 +0.7% | — |
| 13h | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed4 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | BuyNo91¢ → 92¢ | $5,761 | +$28 +0.5% | 11 |
| 14h | segment32 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | BuyNo92¢ | $9,479 | −$61 −0.6% | 11 |
| 14h |  NiceDuckBro | Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | BuyNo91¢ → 92¢ | $1,004 | +$2 +0.2% | 10 |
| 15h | Alex232323 | Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | BuyNo92¢ | $3,000 | −$15 −0.5% | 10 |
| 15h | Runner109 | Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | BuyNo91¢ → 92¢ | $1,100 | +$5 +0.4% | 10 |
| 16h | flawfence | Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | BuyNo90¢ → 92¢ | $7,537 | +$124 +1.6% | 11 |
| 16h | mazan | Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+ | BuyNo97¢ | $2,027 | −$1 −0.0% | 10 |
| 21h |  classified | Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | BuyNo90¢ → 92¢ | $4,613 | +$68 +1.5% | 11 |
| 1d |  timebrotime | Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | BuyNo90¢ → 92¢ | $1,467 | +$31 +2.1% | 10 |
| 1d | nedsta | Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | BuyNo90¢ → 92¢ | $1,231 | +$28 +2.2% | 10 |
| 1d |  nibelung.retired2 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+ | BuyNo97¢ | $17,110 | +$27 +0.2% | 12 |
| 1d |  ThanksGivingTurkey10012 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro <4% | BuyYes41¢ | $14,329 | −$336 −2.3% | 34 |
| 1d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% | SellNo72¢ | $1,202 | +$8 +0.7% | — |
| 1d | StudentMoney2 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% | SellYes31¢ → 28¢ | $3,133 | +$222 +7.1% | — |
| 1d | StudentMoney2 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro <4% | SellNo63¢ → 60¢ | $2,552 | +$134 +5.3% | — |
| 1d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% | BuyNo68¢ → 72¢ | $1,360 | +$70 +5.1% | 14 |
| 1d | bancomaster | Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% | SellYes32¢ → 28¢ | $1,349 | +$148 +11% | — |
| 2d |  BigMaccyG | Flávio Bolsonaro <4% | SellYes43¢ → 41¢ | $5,818 | +$278 +4.8% | — |
| 2d | ThanksGivingTurkey1001 | Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+ | BuyNo97¢ | $1,607 | +$11 +0.7% | 10 |
| 2d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+ | SellNo97¢ | $1,932 | −$15 −0.8% | — |
| 2d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+ | BuyNo97¢ | $1,934 | +$13 +0.7% | 10 |
| 2d | anoin123 | Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | BuyNo88¢ → 92¢ | $4,515 | +$180 +4.0% | 11 |
| 2d |  Flipadelphia | Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+ | BuyNo97¢ | $4,497 | +$30 +0.7% | 11 |
| 2d | sdhyky2 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% | BuyYes38¢ → 28¢ | $4,970 | −$1,279 −26% | 27 |
| 2d | Close-Wording3 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% | SellYes42¢ → 28¢ | $8,291 | +$2,629 +32% | — |
| 2d | aldtrader | Flávio Bolsonaro <4% | BuyYes36¢ → 41¢ | $1,063 | +$133 +13% | 13 |
| 3d |  0xdc3E831cad | Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | BuyNo92¢ | $2,325 | −$11 −0.5% | 10 |
| 3d | Renan20302 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% | SellYes42¢ → 28¢ | $2,594 | +$840 +32% | — |
| 3d |  Honkyss | Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | SellYes12¢ → 9¢ | $1,039 | +$274 +26% | — |
| 3d |  balthazar | Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | BuyNo92¢ | $1,164 | −$2 −0.1% | 10 |
| 3d | balthazar4 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+ | BuyNo98¢ → 97¢ | $4,991 | −$36 −0.7% | 10 |
| 3d | WarriorH2 fills | Lula da Silva <4% | BuyNo89¢ → 80¢ | $2,391 | −$266 −11% | 13 |
| 3d | Renan20302 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro <4% | SellNo73¢ → 60¢ | $14,709 | +$2,706 +18% | — |
| 3d | Close-Wording2 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% | BuyYes48¢ → 28¢ | $4,832 | −$1,966 −41% | 23 |
| 3d | donthackme | Lula da Silva 4-8% | BuyNo100¢ → 99¢ | $1,244 | −$11 −0.9% | 10 |
| 3d | donthackme | Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+ | BuyNo97¢ | $1,215 | +$2 +0.2% | 10 |
| 3d | donthackme | Lula da Silva 8-12% | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,246 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 3d | donthackme | Lula da Silva 12%+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,248 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 3d | donthackme | Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | BuyNo89¢ → 92¢ | $1,116 | +$28 +2.5% | 10 |
| 3d | StudentMoney2 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+ | BuyNo97¢ | $3,241 | +$7 +0.2% | 10 |
| 4d | WarriorH | Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | BuyNo87¢ → 92¢ | $2,295 | +$131 +5.7% | 10 |
| 4d | SadisticTendencies | Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | SellYes15¢ → 9¢ | $1,964 | +$828 +42% | — |
| 4d | Flipadelphia | Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% | SellNo64¢ → 72¢ | $2,509 | −$314 −13% | — |
| 4d | mr52global2 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro <4% | BuyYes28¢ → 41¢ | $6,287 | +$2,928 +47% | 38 |
| 4d | 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F | Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | BuyNo85¢ → 92¢ | $1,051 | +$76 +7.3% | 10 |
| 4d | melchior1248 | Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | BuyNo85¢ → 92¢ | $1,245 | +$91 +7.3% | 10 |
| 4d | Bigggggggg | Lula da Silva <4% | BuyNo91¢ → 80¢ | $2,591 | −$317 −12% | 13 |
| 4d | Bigggggggg | Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | BuyNo85¢ → 92¢ | $2,575 | +$186 +7.2% | 11 |
| 4d | Bigggggggg | Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+ | BuyNo97¢ | $2,933 | +$5 +0.2% | 10 |
| 4d | Bigggggggg | Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% | BuyNo50¢ → 72¢ | $1,508 | +$648 +43% | 14 |
| 4d | Bigggggggg | Lula da Silva 4-8% | BuyNo>99¢ → 99¢ | $3,005 | −$29 −1.0% | 10 |
| 4d |  Ryxon21 | Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | SellNo85¢ → 92¢ | $1,103 | −$80 −7.3% | — |
| 4d | Healthy-Index | Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% | BuyYes50¢ → 28¢ | $1,895 | −$808 −43% | 15 |
| 7d | WalterWhiteW | Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% | BuyYes50¢ → 28¢ | $1,021 | −$438 −43% | 13 |
| 7d | Ryxon21 | Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | BuyNo85¢ → 92¢ | $2,467 | +$189 +7.7% | 11 |
ThanksGivingTurkey100140,153 sharesclassified13,502 sharesBigMaccyG4,171 shares
Haradwaith3,146 sharesThe second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 41¢ for Flávio Bolsonaro <4% means the market gives it about 41%.