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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 2027 Meeting | 5% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 4¢ · 5¢ (1¢) | — | in 114d |
| March 2027 Meeting | 14% | — | −2 pts | 13¢ · 16¢ (3¢) | — | in 173d |
| October 2026 Meeting | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $1.08K | in 104d |
| December 2026 Meeting | 2% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $527 | in 104d |
| July 2027 Meeting | 51% | — | — | 23¢ · 79¢ (56¢) | — | in 295d |
| April 2027 Meeting | 33% | −1 pts | — | 19¢ · 46¢ (27¢) | — | in 203d |
| June 2027 Meeting | 36% | — | −1 pts | 23¢ · 49¢ (26¢) | — | in 264d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d | QMG-MACRO | October 2026 Meeting | SellNo99¢ → >99¢ | $1,974 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 3d |  GoldmanSachs | December 2026 Meeting | SellNo97¢ → 98¢ | $1,169 | −$4 −0.4% | — |
| 4d | forgetfuldory | December 2026 Meeting | BuyNo97¢ → 98¢ | $1,477 | +$7 +0.5% | 12 |
| 15d | simpleman2 fills | December 2026 Meeting | SellNo94¢ → 98¢ | $8,008 | −$291 −3.6% | — |
| 16d | Major-Revolution | October 2026 Meeting | SellNo99¢ → >99¢ | $3,083 | −$11 −0.4% | — |
| 17d | simpleman | October 2026 Meeting | SellNo99¢ → >99¢ | $13,705 | −$62 −0.5% | — |
| 28d | thanksmom | October 2026 Meeting | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $1,071 | +$7 +0.7% | 11 |
| 29d | momo513 | October 2026 Meeting | SellNo99¢ → >99¢ | $2,369 | −$23 −1.0% | — |
| 30d |  Ahpo2 fills | October 2026 Meeting | BuyNo97¢ → >99¢ | $5,185 | +$145 +2.8% | 12 |
| 30d |  classified2 fills | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | BuyNo>99¢ | $24,716 | +$34 +0.1% | 10 |
| 31d | Xgs | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,976 | +$24 +0.4% | 10 |
| 32d | Ahpo4 fills | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $19,491 | +$138 +0.7% | 10 |
| 35d | Betttttttttnn | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,490 | +$10 +0.4% | 10 |
| 36d | tiredShip | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | SellNo100¢ | $1,081 | −$5 −0.5% | — |
| 36d |  LA172 fills | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $15,575 | −$107 −0.7% | — |
| 36d | LA17 | October 2026 Meeting | SellNo96¢ → >99¢ | $2,299 | −$80 −3.5% | — |
| 37d | Major-Revolution | October 2026 Meeting | BuyNo97¢ → >99¢ | $3,000 | +$94 +3.1% | 12 |
| 37d | 0xaba6…0cd9 | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | SellNo100¢ | $3,059 | −$15 −0.5% | — |
| 37d | 0xaba6…0cd9 | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,063 | +$11 +0.4% | 10 |
| 42d | QMG-MACRO | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,472 | −$6 −0.4% | — |
| 42d | QMG-CORE | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,173 | −$9 −0.4% | — |
| 42d |  elmcap26 fills | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $61,696 | +$391 +0.6% | 10 |
| 42d | JonTay | October 2026 Meeting | SellNo96¢ → >99¢ | $1,045 | −$39 −3.8% | — |
| 43d | LA175 fills | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $12,409 | +$144 +1.2% | 10 |
| 43d | 0xB16B00B54 fills | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,907 | +$131 +1.5% | 10 |
| 45d | Musk5 | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,986 | −$14 −0.7% | — |
| 46d | momo513 | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,986 | +$14 +0.7% | 10 |
| 46d | momo513 | October 2026 Meeting | BuyNo96¢ → >99¢ | $1,493 | +$47 +3.2% | 12 |
| 47d | yoyobb2018 | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,156 | −$10 −0.9% | — |
| 49d | Ahpo | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,614 | −$13 −0.8% | — |
| 50d | Pepe1234567 | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,039 | −$18 −1.7% | — |
| 53d |  StupidMonkeyyy | December 2026 Meeting | SellNo87¢ → 98¢ | $1,124 | −$139 −12% | — |
| 56d | simpleman2 fills | December 2026 Meeting | BuyNo86¢ → 98¢ | $6,000 | +$851 +14% | 20 |
| 75d | QMG-MACRO | October 2026 Meeting | BuyNo94¢ → >99¢ | $1,097 | +$65 +5.9% | 14 |
| 79d |  noreasapa | Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,591 | +$9 +0.2% | 10 |
| 80d | thoodr2 fills | Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,972 | +$28 +0.3% | 10 |
| 80d | firegold | Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | SellNo>99¢ | $3,717 | −$11 −0.3% | — |
| 81d | LA17 | Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,873 | +$12 +0.3% | 10 |
| 86d |  taut-dogwood | Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,042 | +$3 +0.3% | 10 |
| 87d | Ahpo | Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | SellNo100¢ | $6,308 | −$32 −0.5% | — |
| 91d | TheReturnOfDarthMaul3 fills | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $13,679 | +$1,006 +7.4% | 10 |
| 91d | QMG-SCALAR | Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | BuyNo100¢ | $2,929 | +$15 +0.5% | 10 |
| 94d | simpleman | October 2026 Meeting | BuyNo90¢ → >99¢ | $10,000 | +$1,073 +11% | 17 |
| 94d | jorgesegui33 | Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | BuyYes2¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 15 |
| 94d | Ahpo | December 2026 Meeting | BuyNo80¢ → 98¢ | $2,102 | +$466 +22% | 23 |
| 97d | QMG-MACRO | Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,988 | +$12 +0.6% | 10 |
| 101d |  uncleroger2 fills | Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,299 | −$113 −1.2% | — |
| 101d | uncleroger | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,652 | −$96 −5.8% | — |
| 103d | 0xB16B00B5 | Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,067 | +$11 +1.0% | 10 |
| 104d | yoyobb2018 | Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,063 | −$12 −1.1% | — |
| 108d | TheReturnOfDarthMaul4 fills | Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $10,806 | +$522 +4.8% | 10 |
| 109d | Jane85 | Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | BuyYes2¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 15 |
| 115d | fed262 fills | December 2026 Meeting | SellNo82¢ → 98¢ | $7,938 | −$1,507 −19% | — |
| 116d | ratehikes | December 2026 Meeting | SellNo83¢ → 98¢ | $4,648 | −$826 −18% | — |
| 118d | livepo1y | Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,124 | −$43 −2.0% | — |
| 121d | podairpod | Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,831 | −$78 −4.3% | — |
| 122d | taut-dogwood2 fills | Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? | BuyNo100¢ | $3,379 | +$17 +0.5% | 10 |
| 122d | livepo1y | Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,163 | +$24 +2.0% | 11 |
| 122d | 1234ab74 fills | Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $132,948 | +$2,595 +2.0% | 10 |
| 123d |  Bouplai | Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,232 | −$13 −0.6% | — |
Ahpo1,110 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 5¢ for January 2027 Meeting means the market gives it about 5%.
