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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | — | +1 pts | 5¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | $130K | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17h |  DonationsReceiver | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SellNo94¢ → 95¢ | $10,626 | −$57 −0.5% | — |
| 17h |  Car2 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyYes6¢ | $3,900 | −$600 −15% | 17 |
| 21h |  Dripx | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ | $73,888 | −$389 −0.5% | 7 |
| 1d | nope3050 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SellNo94¢ → 95¢ | $4,191 | −$22 −0.5% | — |
| 2d |  Mori1221 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SellYes5¢ → 6¢ | $1,635 | −$163 −10.0% | — |
| 2d |  MEPP8 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SellNo94¢ → 95¢ | $49,670 | −$415 −0.8% | — |
| 3d | 0xef97…ab2c | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ | $4,750 | −$25 −0.5% | 4 |
| 3d |  ScottyNooo2 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SellNo95¢ | $19,263 | +$48 +0.3% | — |
| 3d | thoodr10 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $84,800 | +$250 +0.3% | 8 |
| 5d | iraa3 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ | $1,425 | −$8 −0.5% | 4 |
| 6d |  Tigerofthehood3 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SellNo94¢ → 95¢ | $42,921 | −$62 −0.1% | — |
| 6d |  yomayoto | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SellNo95¢ | $4,750 | +$25 +0.5% | — |
| 6d | Vilgefortz | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SellNo95¢ | $21,850 | +$115 +0.5% | — |
| 7d |  NotOver | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo96¢ → 95¢ | $4,800 | −$75 −1.6% | 4 |
| 7d |  lmeoww | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo96¢ → 95¢ | $2,172 | −$34 −1.6% | 4 |
| 7d |  CastleRock3 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo96¢ → 95¢ | $9,600 | −$150 −1.6% | 5 |
| 7d |  UnderwriterGCR | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo96¢ → 95¢ | $2,400 | −$38 −1.6% | 4 |
| 8d |  tsybka | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ | $27,588 | −$145 −0.5% | 7 |
| 8d | KARACAC | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ | $2,660 | −$14 −0.5% | 4 |
| 9d | simpleman | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SellNo94¢ → 95¢ | $5,109 | −$27 −0.5% | — |
| 9d | mx156 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyYes6¢ | $1,800 | −$150 −8.3% | 10 |
| 10d | gorovi6 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $21,015 | +$61 +0.3% | 6 |
| 10d |  0x34a9...d74cfd | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ | $1,235 | −$7 −0.5% | 4 |
| 10d | yomayoto4 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $29,755 | +$66 +0.2% | 7 |
| 11d | Corrupt-Lark | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ | $9,500 | −$50 −0.5% | 5 |
| 11d | Selfish-Scratch3 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ | $15,950 | −$30 −0.2% | 6 |
| 11d | yomayo3 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $38,200 | +$203 +0.5% | 8 |
| 11d | IlIlllIIIIllllIlIlllllIlIIIllllI | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SellNo93¢ → 95¢ | $2,016 | −$33 −1.6% | — |
| 11d | aff3 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $32,900 | +$175 +0.5% | 8 |
| 11d | CP-directional5 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $12,260 | +$65 +0.5% | 6 |
| 12d | miamimimi | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $5,640 | +$30 +0.5% | 5 |
| 12d |  AlAhmeda4 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo93¢ → 95¢ | $11,463 | +$141 +1.2% | 6 |
| 12d | Avamax | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $9,400 | +$50 +0.5% | 5 |
| 12d |  ProfitMuhammedPBUH | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SellYes6¢ | $1,182 | +$99 +8.3% | — |
| 13d |  ponczyk2 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $2,538 | +$14 +0.5% | 4 |
| 14d | ScottyNooo | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $1,880 | +$10 +0.5% | 4 |
| 14d | ponczyk | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SellNo93¢ → 95¢ | $1,488 | −$24 −1.6% | — |
| 14d | Tigerofthehood4 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo91¢ → 95¢ | $14,175 | +$499 +3.5% | 7 |
| 14d | lava-lava | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SellNo93¢ → 95¢ | $3,104 | −$50 −1.6% | — |
| 14d | yomayohaha | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $10,000 | +$53 +0.5% | 5 |
| 15d | yingxer4 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $13,622 | +$116 +0.9% | 6 |
| 15d | adkjhahgddfdsf2 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo92¢ → 95¢ | $5,328 | +$161 +3.0% | 5 |
| 16d | Elias.Thornwell | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $1,033 | +$5 +0.5% | 4 |
| 16d |  Bertapotamous | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $11,280 | +$60 +0.5% | 5 |
| 17d | Vilgefortz3 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo93¢ → 95¢ | $33,520 | +$500 +1.5% | 9 |
| 17d | Car3 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $18,800 | +$100 +0.5% | 6 |
| 17d | MonacoLover3 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo93¢ → 95¢ | $7,048 | +$104 +1.5% | 5 |
| 17d | hopedieslast | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $9,400 | +$50 +0.5% | 5 |
| 17d | Wrathful-Decrease3 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo93¢ → 95¢ | $7,939 | +$154 +1.9% | 5 |
| 17d | darlord | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $3,299 | +$18 +0.5% | 4 |
| 18d | Llalalala8 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo91¢ → 95¢ | $139,121 | +$4,962 +3.6% | 10 |
| 18d | chartreuseverte3 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo92¢ → 95¢ | $3,190 | +$89 +2.8% | 5 |
| 21d | nope30502 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $6,580 | +$35 +0.5% | 5 |
| 21d |  tetrase4 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SellNo92¢ → 95¢ | $31,443 | −$710 −2.3% | — |
| 23d |  Sylvester.the.Cat | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $4,700 | +$25 +0.5% | 5 |
| 25d | stupid2210 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 95¢ | $135,072 | +$6,007 +4.4% | 10 |
| 26d | plumbis | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SellNo93¢ → 95¢ | $10,536 | −$170 −1.6% | — |
| 26d | Raw-Sack | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SellYes6¢ | $1,130 | +$94 +8.3% | — |
| 26d | elrah | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SellNo93¢ → 95¢ | $1,386 | −$22 −1.6% | — |
| 27d |  AngryRhino3 fills | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SellNo92¢ → 95¢ | $49,604 | −$1,142 −2.3% | — |
LlamaLoco0000477,359 shares
Arbguy155,243 shares
ImJustKen117,386 shares
Erasmus.285,171 shares
scout110,234 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 6¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 6%.