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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 16% | — | −1 pts | 15¢ · 16¢ (1¢) | $86.8K | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | pykue | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo85¢ | $1,578 | −$9 −0.6% | 21 |
| 12h |  rewardbots2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellYes16¢ | $2,661 | +$15 +0.5% | — |
| 12h | rewardbots2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyYes17¢ → 16¢ | $2,833 | −$185 −6.5% | 29 |
| 15h |  meagainsttheworld6 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellYes16¢ | $26,159 | +$291 +1.1% | — |
| 18h | LulaVaiPerder48 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo83¢ → 85¢ | $316,999 | −$4,817 −1.5% | — |
| 18h |  classified3 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo85¢ | $10,563 | +$15 +0.1% | — |
| 20h | laureman5 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo83¢ → 85¢ | $49,205 | −$1,066 −2.2% | — |
| 1d | Zbinik3 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo84¢ → 85¢ | $31,711 | −$144 −0.5% | — |
| 1d | hughjonesd | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo84¢ → 85¢ | $14,000 | +$64 +0.5% | 27 |
| 1d | classified3 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo84¢ → 85¢ | $8,168 | +$29 +0.3% | 24 |
| 1d |  0x34a9...d74cfd | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo84¢ → 85¢ | $1,512 | +$9 +0.6% | 21 |
| 1d | Popeyesfriedchicken | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo83¢ → 85¢ | $1,355 | −$24 −1.8% | — |
| 1d |  yen4u2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo84¢ → 85¢ | $7,889 | +$92 +1.2% | 24 |
| 1d |  0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo84¢ → 85¢ | $6,122 | −$36 −0.6% | — |
| 1d |  LlamaLoco00002 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellYes16¢ | $15,417 | +$25 +0.2% | — |
| 1d | controls | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo84¢ → 85¢ | $5,000 | +$30 +0.6% | 22 |
| 1d | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo84¢ → 85¢ | $21,000 | +$125 +0.6% | 30 |
| 1d | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e053 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellYes15¢ → 16¢ | $11,594 | −$246 −2.1% | — |
| 1d |  Car5 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo85¢ | $67,468 | −$127 −0.2% | 30 |
| 1d | hehhehe | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo83¢ → 85¢ | $2,929 | −$53 −1.8% | — |
| 2d |  Dapsy | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo84¢ → 85¢ | $3,000 | +$18 +0.6% | 21 |
| 2d |  paddaa2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo83¢ → 85¢ | $9,142 | −$165 −1.8% | — |
| 2d | ethBELIVER3 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo83¢ → 85¢ | $51,539 | +$931 +1.8% | 31 |
| 3d |  Valen93 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo83¢ → 85¢ | $45,132 | −$918 −2.0% | — |
| 3d | RealisticRisk2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo84¢ → 85¢ | $2,000 | +$1 +0.0% | 21 |
| 3d | fantastic55 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo82¢ → 85¢ | $1,255 | −$38 −3.0% | — |
| 3d | Huludubu2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo84¢ → 85¢ | $23,825 | +$257 +1.1% | 31 |
| 3d | agagyu4 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo84¢ → 85¢ | $5,201 | +$6 +0.1% | 22 |
| 3d | Daviddu0813 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo83¢ → 85¢ | $1,000 | +$18 +1.8% | 21 |
| 3d |  tetrase2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo83¢ → 85¢ | $10,796 | −$165 −1.5% | — |
| 4d | VvVvV | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo83¢ → 85¢ | $2,286 | −$41 −1.8% | — |
| 4d |  TruongMyLan3 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo83¢ → 85¢ | $28,875 | −$420 −1.5% | — |
| 4d |  RockyZet | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo83¢ → 85¢ | $1,850 | +$33 +1.8% | 21 |
| 4d | WarriorH8 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo86¢ → 85¢ | $22,404 | −$348 −1.6% | 29 |
| 4d | hfv2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo85¢ | $8,327 | −$1 −0.0% | 24 |
| 4d | pravii-bereg | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo82¢ → 85¢ | $3,024 | −$92 −3.0% | — |
| 4d |  TBill12 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo83¢ → 85¢ | $22,456 | +$272 +1.2% | 31 |
| 4d |  DonationsReceiver3 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo83¢ → 85¢ | $14,585 | −$267 −1.8% | — |
| 4d |  GollumGekko | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo82¢ → 85¢ | $2,421 | +$74 +3.0% | 21 |
| 4d | tetrase3 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo84¢ → 85¢ | $16,850 | +$50 +0.3% | 28 |
| 4d |  MisTKy | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellYes18¢ → 16¢ | $7,498 | +$1,041 +14% | — |
| 4d | MisTKy | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyYes18¢ → 16¢ | $7,498 | −$1,041 −14% | 39 |
| 4d | MisTKy4 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo83¢ → 85¢ | $44,645 | −$801 −1.8% | — |
| 4d |  Tenebrus710 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo85¢ | $22,899 | +$105 +0.5% | — |
| 4d | LlamaLoco00002 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyYes18¢ → 16¢ | $18,000 | −$2,500 −14% | 54 |
| 5d | momo513 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo83¢ → 85¢ | $2,490 | −$45 −1.8% | — |
| 5d | cocobobo | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo83¢ → 85¢ | $1,328 | −$24 −1.8% | — |
| 5d | Smart-bettor72 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo85¢ | $4,219 | −$15 −0.3% | 22 |
| 5d |  gatonekki | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellYes16¢ | $5,600 | +$175 +3.1% | — |
| 5d | MonacoLover3 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo85¢ | $4,103 | −$6 −0.1% | 22 |
| 6d | franklin10 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyYes17¢ → 16¢ | $1,020 | −$90 −8.8% | 21 |
| 6d | TruongMyLan | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo84¢ → 85¢ | $20,722 | +$123 +0.6% | 30 |
| 6d | gaosh | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo84¢ → 85¢ | $1,615 | +$10 +0.6% | 21 |
| 6d | Jkk213 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo85¢ | $7,542 | −$1 −0.0% | 24 |
| 6d |  tetrose8 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyYes16¢ | $109,925 | −$755 −0.7% | 75 |
| 6d | Renan203066 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo84¢ → 85¢ | $675,939 | −$4,867 −0.7% | — |
| 7d | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo84¢ → 85¢ | $5,040 | −$30 −0.6% | — |
| 7d |  UUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo84¢ → 85¢ | $2,842 | −$17 −0.6% | — |
| 7d | SOLE214 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellYes15¢ → 16¢ | $9,555 | −$318 −3.3% | — |
| 7d |  Cungly | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo84¢ → 85¢ | $2,520 | −$15 −0.6% | — |
TheQuietRisk1,056,379 sharesmeagainsttheworld205,000 sharesLlamaLoco0000200,000 shares
scout280,000 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 16¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 16%.