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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 87% | — | +3 pts | 86¢ · 87¢ (1¢) | $211K | in 12d |
| 25 bps increase | 14% | — | −2 pts | 13¢ · 14¢ (1¢) | $209K | in 12d |
| 25 bps decrease | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $353K | in 12d |
| 50+ bps increase | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $394K | in 12d |
| 50+ bps decrease | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $65.1K | in 12d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h | manxia | No change | BuyYes87¢ | $3,000 | −$17 −0.6% | 10 |
| 5h | Subdued-Hobby | No change | BuyYes87¢ | $8,195 | −$47 −0.6% | 11 |
| 6h | pilorget | 25 bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,826 | −$1 −0.1% | 10 |
| 11h | Expensive-Stealth | No change | BuyYes87¢ | $8,700 | −$50 −0.6% | 11 |
| 13h | suntori9 fills | No change | SellYes67¢ → 87¢ | $38,424 | −$11,358 −30% | — |
| 14h | wayyt2 fills | 25 bps increase | SellNo83¢ → 87¢ | $8,064 | −$357 −4.4% | — |
| 15h | notshaynecoppin | 25 bps increase | SellNo86¢ → 87¢ | $3,054 | −$18 −0.6% | — |
| 16h |  MysticFind12 fills | No change | BuyNo28¢ → 14¢ | $27,946 | −$14,388 −51% | 35 |
| 17h | timetowander3 fills | No change | BuyNo18¢ → 14¢ | $7,918 | −$2,101 −27% | 25 |
| 17h | jsmythyson6 fills | 25 bps increase | BuyYes21¢ → 14¢ | $37,748 | −$12,900 −34% | 45 |
| 17h |  arjennnnn | No change | SellYes86¢ → 87¢ | $17,200 | −$100 −0.6% | — |
| 17h |  noreasapa | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | −$5 −0.1% | 10 |
| 17h | noreasapa | 25 bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,970 | −$5 −0.1% | 10 |
| 17h | noreasapa | 50+ bps increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,970 | −$5 −0.1% | 10 |
| 19h |  Detbet | No change | SellYes86¢ → 87¢ | $1,720 | −$10 −0.6% | — |
| 20h | Solid-Airfare5 fills | No change | BuyYes87¢ | $25,230 | −$145 −0.6% | 14 |
| 21h |  Enron2.0 | No change | BuyYes87¢ | $2,983 | −$17 −0.6% | 10 |
| 21h | tide-rider | No change | SellYes86¢ → 87¢ | $1,231 | −$7 −0.6% | — |
| 22h | timetowander9 fills | 25 bps increase | BuyNo84¢ → 87¢ | $40,155 | +$1,441 +3.6% | 18 |
| 22h | QMG-CORE | 50+ bps increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,988 | −$2 −0.1% | 10 |
| 22h | 20260601 | No change | SellNo13¢ → 14¢ | $4,807 | −$185 −3.8% | — |
| 23h |  foodenjoyer2 fills | 50+ bps increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $399,245 | +$226 +0.1% | 10 |
| 1d | Solid-Airfare | 25 bps increase | BuyNo87¢ | $4,350 | −$25 −0.6% | 11 |
| 1d | faceverification | No change | BuyYes87¢ | $19,333 | −$111 −0.6% | 13 |
| 1d | Ronaldo2100 | No change | BuyYes87¢ | $48,333 | −$278 −0.6% | 18 |
| 1d |  Trading4Fridge | 25 bps increase | SellYes13¢ → 14¢ | $1,283 | −$49 −3.8% | — |
| 1d |  zthunderfury | No change | BuyYes87¢ | $1,661 | −$10 −0.6% | 10 |
| 1d |  MR.K-473 | No change | BuyYes87¢ | $2,800 | −$16 −0.6% | 10 |
| 1d | mmmmdou | No change | BuyYes87¢ | $3,000 | −$17 −0.6% | 10 |
| 1d | euro-catcher4 fills | No change | BuyYes77¢ → 87¢ | $6,000 | +$736 +12% | 12 |
| 1d | JabamiYumekosRBQ | 25 bps increase | BuyNo88¢ → 87¢ | $2,640 | −$45 −1.7% | 10 |
| 1d |  Lolakis3 fills | 25 bps increase | BuyYes16¢ → 14¢ | $6,814 | −$1,205 −18% | 25 |
| 1d | Lolakis2 fills | No change | BuyYes80¢ → 87¢ | $12,404 | +$969 +7.8% | 13 |
| 1d |  MisTKy | 25 bps increase | SellYes13¢ → 14¢ | $2,155 | −$83 −3.8% | — |
| 1d | MisTKy | 25 bps increase | BuyNo86¢ → 87¢ | $6,897 | +$40 +0.6% | 11 |
| 1d | MisTKy9 fills | No change | BuyYes74¢ → 87¢ | $60,394 | +$9,874 +16% | 27 |
| 1d | S552 fills | No change | BuyYes85¢ → 87¢ | $4,230 | +$95 +2.2% | 11 |
| 1d | Rowdy-Evening-Universe | No change | SellYes84¢ → 87¢ | $3,573 | −$106 −3.0% | — |
| 1d | BISTURI | 25 bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,985 | −$2 −0.1% | 10 |
| 1d |  nigiri994 fills | No change | BuyYes64¢ → 87¢ | $12,971 | +$4,494 +35% | 15 |
| 1d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed3 fills | No change | SellYes76¢ → 87¢ | $4,365 | −$574 −13% | — |
| 1d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed6 fills | 25 bps increase | SellNo76¢ → 87¢ | $8,493 | −$1,209 −14% | — |
| 1d | Steve. | 25 bps increase | BuyNo86¢ → 87¢ | $2,589 | +$27 +1.0% | 10 |
| 1d | donthackme2 fills | 25 bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,514 | −$1 −0.1% | 10 |
| 1d | donthackme2 fills | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,519 | −$1 −0.1% | 10 |
| 1d | donthackme2 fills | 50+ bps increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,514 | −$1 −0.1% | 10 |
| 1d | Steve. | No change | SellNo16¢ → 14¢ | $2,673 | +$354 +13% | — |
| 1d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed4 fills | 25 bps increase | BuyNo74¢ → 87¢ | $5,147 | +$856 +17% | 12 |
| 1d | S55 | 25 bps increase | BuyNo83¢ → 87¢ | $1,245 | +$53 +4.2% | 10 |
| 1d |  eightpenguins | 25 bps increase | BuyNo81¢ → 87¢ | $2,262 | +$162 +7.2% | 11 |
| 1d | MysticFind18 fills | 25 bps increase | BuyNo67¢ → 87¢ | $113,684 | +$34,067 +30% | 30 |
| 1d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed3 fills | No change | BuyYes75¢ → 87¢ | $4,273 | +$682 +16% | 11 |
| 1d | MysticFind37 fills | No change | BuyYes63¢ → 87¢ | $256,488 | +$95,935 +37% | 30 |
| 1d |  Erasmus.2 fills | No change | BuyYes74¢ → 87¢ | $36,448 | +$6,282 +17% | 22 |
| 1d | Erasmus. | 25 bps increase | BuyNo75¢ → 87¢ | $4,095 | +$628 +15% | 11 |
| 1d | WarriorH4 fills | 25 bps increase | BuyNo72¢ → 87¢ | $10,791 | +$2,143 +20% | 14 |
| 1d | MsTKyB12 fills | 25 bps increase | BuyYes30¢ → 14¢ | $4,000 | −$2,179 −54% | 17 |
| 1d | S55 | 25 bps increase | SellNo72¢ → 87¢ | $3,600 | −$725 −20% | — |
| 1d | browne2 fills | No change | SellYes71¢ → 87¢ | $4,773 | −$1,062 −22% | — |
| 1d | Vilgefortz | No change | BuyYes71¢ → 87¢ | $1,009 | +$220 +22% | 10 |
MysticFind267,255 shares
MiuMiuYan216,202 shares
tetrose87,025 shares
DOLLAR-PRINTER36,343 sharesnigiri9933,253 sharesThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 87¢ for No change means the market gives it about 87%.