| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 158,331 | 30¢ → 89¢ | $140,123 | +$92,860 +196% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseEnds in 17d | Yes | 72,277 | 36¢ → 63¢ | $45,173 | +$19,364 +75% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 223,581 | 18¢ → 18¢ | $39,127 | −$2,082 −5.1% |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Ends ended | Yes | 70,884 | 25¢ → 39¢ | $27,290 | +$9,427 +53% |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?Ends in 14d | No | 28,569 | 79¢ → 95¢ | $26,998 | +$4,442 +20% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | No | 26,001 | 51¢ → 77¢ | $19,891 | +$6,742 +51% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 17d | Yes | 21,651 | 45¢ → 65¢ | $13,965 | +$4,225 +43% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | Yes | 17,848 | 34¢ → 77¢ | $13,725 | +$7,577 +123% |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 17d | No | 20,576 | 46¢ → 64¢ | $13,066 | +$3,599 +38% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 13,293 | 37¢ → 91¢ | $12,097 | +$7,114 +143% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Ends in 14d | Yes | 211,254 | 8¢ → 5¢ | $10,351 | −$6,446 −38% |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 10,224 | 77¢ → 90¢ | $9,243 | +$1,360 +17% |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 12,393 | 56¢ → 72¢ | $8,861 | +$1,922 +28% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 40,041 | 22¢ → 19¢ | $7,408 | −$1,208 −14% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Ends in 752d | Yes | 53,965 | 6¢ → 13¢ | $7,096 | +$3,775 +114% |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Ends in 752d | Yes | 817,184 | 1¢ → 1¢ | $6,946 | −$161 −2.3% |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 195,829 | 6¢ → 3¢ | $5,973 | −$5,340 −47% |
| Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 6,784 | 88¢ → 88¢ | $5,936 | −$26 −0.4% |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 4,952 | 71¢ → 97¢ | $4,781 | +$1,257 +36% |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 38,476 | 12¢ → 12¢ | $4,636 | +$35 +0.8% |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?Ends in 17d | No | 4,646 | 95¢ → 99¢ | $4,579 | +$180 +4.1% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 5,000 | 65¢ → 88¢ | $4,375 | +$1,133 +35% |
| Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 4,579 | 87¢ → 88¢ | $4,007 | +$26 +0.7% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 4,080 | 68¢ → 88¢ | $3,570 | +$810 +29% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?Ends in 102d | Yes | 10,150 | 31¢ → 35¢ | $3,502 | +$348 +11% |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 8,433 | 40¢ → 42¢ | $3,500 | +$149 +4.5% |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 10d | No | 4,577 | 51¢ → 69¢ | $3,135 | +$816 +35% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Ends in 752d | No | 3,810 | 76¢ → 79¢ | $3,008 | +$124 +4.3% |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 13d | No | 32,595 | 10¢ → 9¢ | $2,771 | −$364 −12% |
| Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 10d | Yes | 10,242 | 20¢ → 27¢ | $2,750 | +$744 +37% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Ends in 44d | Yes | 60,149 | 11¢ → 5¢ | $2,707 | −$3,694 −58% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Ends in 52d | Yes | 3,323 | 33¢ → 77¢ | $2,542 | +$1,440 +131% |
| Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?Ends in 91d | No | 8,882 | 29¢ → 28¢ | $2,487 | −$88 −3.4% |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 2,500 | 74¢ → 97¢ | $2,421 | +$571 +31% |
| Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 3,141 | 87¢ → 75¢ | $2,340 | −$384 −14% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 3,540 | 21¢ → 66¢ | $2,335 | +$1,574 +207% |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Ends in 17d | No | 2,500 | 87¢ → 91¢ | $2,263 | +$88 +4.0% |
| Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Ends in 17d | Yes | 9,231 | 24¢ → 24¢ | $2,169 | −$73 −3.2% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 11d | Yes | 15,073 | 25¢ → 14¢ | $2,035 | −$1,703 −46% |
| Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 10d | Yes | 4,733 | 23¢ → 42¢ | $1,964 | +$865 +79% |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 15,500 | 11¢ → 13¢ | $1,938 | +$278 +17% |
| Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?Ends in 17d | Yes | 3,099 | 56¢ → 54¢ | $1,658 | −$69 −4.0% |
| Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Ends in 21d | Yes | 2,973 | 59¢ → 55¢ | $1,620 | −$120 −6.9% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?Ends in 14d | Yes | 48,742 | 7¢ → 3¢ | $1,487 | −$1,694 −53% |
| Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?Ends in 76d | Yes | 22,794 | 10¢ → 7¢ | $1,482 | −$746 −33% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 1,686 | 32¢ → 87¢ | $1,465 | +$928 +173% |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Ends ended | Yes | 8,428 | 10¢ → 17¢ | $1,391 | +$554 +66% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 1,556 | 55¢ → 87¢ | $1,346 | +$491 +57% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Ends in 52d | No | 1,333 | 96¢ → 99¢ | $1,324 | +$48 +3.7% |
| Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?Ends in 91d | Yes | 6,286 | 26¢ → 21¢ | $1,320 | −$331 −20% |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 2,928 | 39¢ → 42¢ | $1,215 | +$77 +6.8% |
| House control favorite on November 2?Ends in 16d | Democratic Party | 1,208 | 95¢ → 99¢ | $1,195 | +$48 +4.2% |
| Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 10d | Yes | 1,717 | 35¢ → 69¢ | $1,176 | +$578 +97% |
| Republican Senate odds hit 45% by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 1,362 | 56¢ → 86¢ | $1,165 | +$401 +53% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 1,182 | 48¢ → 89¢ | $1,046 | +$480 +85% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 6,221 | 17¢ → 17¢ | $1,030 | −$58 −5.3% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 983 | 82¢ → 97¢ | $958 | +$155 +19% |
| Republican House odds hit 20% by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 955 | 88¢ → 99¢ | $945 | +$103 +12% |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 1,009 | 34¢ → 92¢ | $923 | +$576 +166% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 29,249 | 14¢ → 3¢ | $907 | −$3,089 −77% |
| Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg?Ends in 30d | Yes | 1,681 | 50¢ → 52¢ | $866 | +$20 +2.3% |
| Will Uba Sani win the 2027 Kaduna State gubernatorial election?Ends in 112d | No | 2,185 | 30¢ → 40¢ | $863 | +$216 +33% |
| Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 26,575 | 10¢ → 3¢ | $850 | −$1,833 −68% |
| Republicans flip Democrats for Senate by November 2?Ends in 16d | No | 864 | 74¢ → 95¢ | $816 | +$177 +28% |
| Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 919 | 62¢ → 87¢ | $795 | +$225 +39% |
| Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 1,140 | 42¢ → 70¢ | $792 | +$312 +65% |
| Will Oborevwori Sheriff Francis Orohwedor win the 2027 Delta State gubernatorial election?Ends in 112d | No | 2,398 | 12¢ → 33¢ | $791 | +$506 +177% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 23,103 | 8¢ → 3¢ | $762 | −$1,100 −59% |
| Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,311 | 36¢ → 57¢ | $745 | +$273 +58% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 11,800 | 15¢ → 6¢ | $708 | −$1,040 −59% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 13d | No | 4,500 | 17¢ → 14¢ | $652 | −$102 −14% |
| Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 3,123 | 21¢ → 21¢ | $640 | −$25 −3.7% |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?Ends in 44d | No | 857 | 47¢ → 75¢ | $639 | +$236 +59% |
| Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 3,056 | 21¢ → 21¢ | $627 | −$21 −3.2% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 10d | Yes | 4,554 | 37¢ → 14¢ | $615 | −$1,059 −63% |
| Rubio flips Vance for GOP nomination by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 623 | 97¢ → 98¢ | $612 | +$10 +1.6% |
| Will Alia Hyacinth Iormem win the 2027 Benue State gubernatorial election?Ends in 112d | No | 1,485 | 40¢ → 41¢ | $601 | +$13 +2.2% |
| Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 2,188 | 25¢ → 27¢ | $580 | +$30 +5.5% |
| Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?Ends in 17d | No | 634 | 88¢ → 89¢ | $561 | +$6 +1.1% |
| Will Ken Calvert win the CA-40 House seat?Ends in 17d | Yes | 1,000 | 63¢ → 56¢ | $555 | −$75 −12% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 10d | Yes | 2,000 | 30¢ → 28¢ | $550 | −$40 −6.8% |
| Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Ends in 21d | No | 964 | 55¢ → 56¢ | $535 | +$7 +1.3% |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Ends in 76d | Yes | 1,739 | 18¢ → 30¢ | $513 | +$206 +67% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Ends in 44d | Yes | 2,500 | 21¢ → 20¢ | $488 | −$38 −7.1% |
| Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 500 | 75¢ → 92¢ | $460 | +$85 +23% |
| Will Umaru Dikko Radda win the 2027 Katsina State gubernatorial election?Ends in 112d | No | 2,235 | 17¢ → 21¢ | $458 | +$87 +23% |
| Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31?Ends in 14d | Yes | 1,100 | 52¢ → 41¢ | $451 | −$126 −22% |
| Will Yakubu Adamu win the 2027 Bauchi State gubernatorial election?Ends in 112d | No | 554 | 59¢ → 80¢ | $440 | +$115 +35% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the SC-06 House seat?Ends in 17d | Yes | 457 | 23¢ → 96¢ | $439 | +$335 +320% |
| Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,300 | 15¢ → 33¢ | $422 | +$230 +119% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Ends in 14d | Yes | 54,471 | 8¢ → 1¢ | $409 | −$4,079 −91% |
| Will John James Akpanudoedehe win the 2027 Akwa Ibom State gubernatorial election?Ends in 112d | Yes | 2,469 | 5¢ → 16¢ | $399 | +$274 +219% |
| Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?Ends in 75d | No | 411 | 58¢ → 95¢ | $389 | +$150 +63% |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,814 | 17¢ → 21¢ | $372 | +$59 +19% |
| Will Eno Umo Bassey win the 2027 Akwa Ibom State gubernatorial election?Ends in 112d | No | 1,421 | 22¢ → 26¢ | $369 | +$61 +20% |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 24,142 | 2¢ → 1¢ | $350 | −$45 −11% |
| Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 752d | Yes | 21,893 | 2¢ → 2¢ | $339 | −$111 −25% |
| Will Mbah Peter Ndubuisi win the 2027 Enugu State gubernatorial election?Ends in 112d | No | 1,423 | 19¢ → 24¢ | $334 | +$62 +23% |
| Will Solomon Olamilekan Adeola win the 2027 Ogun State gubernatorial election?Ends in 112d | No | 1,344 | 23¢ → 23¢ | $309 | −$3 −1.0% |
| Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 2,660 | 7¢ → 11¢ | $279 | +$93 +50% |
