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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 28% | −1 pts | −49 pts | 27¢ · 30¢ (3¢) | $1.28K | in 76d |
| October 31 | 10% | −1 pts | −43 pts | 9¢ · 10¢ (1¢) | $1.12K | in 15d |
| November 30 | 26% | — | −43 pts | 25¢ · 26¢ (1¢) | $241 | in 45d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | jiezhi | October 31 | BuyNo85¢ → 90¢ | $7,644 | +$524 +6.9% | 14 |
| 1d | baixia | October 31 | BuyNo85¢ → 90¢ | $6,864 | +$471 +6.9% | 14 |
| 1d | taishiji | October 31 | BuyNo85¢ → 90¢ | $7,732 | +$530 +6.9% | 14 |
| 1d | tieguanyin | October 31 | BuyNo85¢ → 90¢ | $7,672 | +$526 +6.9% | 14 |
| 1d | puer | October 31 | BuyNo85¢ → 90¢ | $5,530 | +$386 +7.0% | 14 |
| 1d |  C6H6 | Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,066 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 1d |  Luck7.7.7 | Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,022 | +$5 +0.3% | 4 |
| 1d | Arman2 | Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,189 | −$11 −0.9% | — |
| 1d | qaz1234567890 | Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,335 | +$5 +0.2% | 4 |
| 1d | laolumanjuuma | Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,468 | +$6 +0.2% | 4 |
| 1d | mianbaoxiaoziuma | Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,466 | +$8 +0.3% | 4 |
| 1d | meiyitinghuouma | Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,477 | +$7 +0.5% | 4 |
| 1d | completedegen | Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,412 | +$42 +3.0% | 5 |
| 1d |  kaixinwan | Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,099 | +$34 +3.1% | 5 |
| 2d | Arman23 fills | October 31 | BuyNo79¢ → 90¢ | $7,155 | +$996 +14% | 18 |
| 2d | Arman22 fills | Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,846 | +$241 +8.5% | 5 |
| 3d | Needy-Antelope | Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15? | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,767 | −$108 −6.1% | — |
| 3d |  suraxy | October 31 | SellNo78¢ → 90¢ | $1,989 | −$323 −16% | — |
| 4d | Arman22 fills | October 31 | SellNo81¢ → 90¢ | $3,662 | −$442 −12% | — |
| 4d | Needy-Antelope | Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15? | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,650 | +$225 +14% | 5 |
| 5d | suraxy | October 31 | BuyNo67¢ → 90¢ | $1,700 | +$580 +34% | 24 |
| 5d |  GayPride | December 31 | BuyNo34¢ → 72¢ | $1,920 | +$2,135 +111% | 26 |
| 6d | GayPride | October 31 | BuyNo56¢ → 90¢ | $1,976 | +$1,219 +62% | 24 |
| 6d |  eCash | Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15? | BuyNo75¢ → 100¢ | $1,800 | +$605 +34% | 6 |
| 8d |  JosephIsGreat | December 31 | BuyYes36¢ → 28¢ | $1,422 | −$282 −20% | 25 |
| 8d |  RememberAmalek | Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,203 | +$115 +9.5% | 4 |
| 9d |  Specksalam | December 31 | BuyYes32¢ → 28¢ | $1,260 | −$120 −9.6% | 25 |
| 10d | RememberAmalek2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo64¢ → 72¢ | $5,639 | +$637 +11% | 24 |
| 11d | RememberAmalek2 fills | October 31 | BuyNo77¢ → 90¢ | $7,883 | +$1,360 +17% | 19 |
| 14d | laureman | October 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 90¢ | $1,632 | −$82 −5.0% | 7 |
eCash6,912 sharesSpecksalam4,394 shares
Rex4162,000 shares
outcomes1,925 sharesRememberAmalek12,393 sharesGayPride5,671 shares
AlAhmeda1,019 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen. “No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 28¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 28%.