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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 21% | −2 pts | −3 pts | 20¢ · 21¢ (1¢) | $1.5K | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d | Kollbi | December 31 | BuyNo70¢ → 80¢ | $2,794 | +$384 +14% | 40 |
| 10d |  de5nuts | December 31 | SellYes38¢ → 21¢ | $1,670 | +$770 +46% | — |
| 10d | Mastermoney | December 31 | BuyYes50¢ → 21¢ | $1,000 | −$591 −59% | 40 |
| 65d |  Mataty1 | December 31 | BuyNo59¢ → 80¢ | $1,309 | +$455 +35% | 40 |
| 93d |  tetrose | December 31 | BuyYes19¢ → 21¢ | $1,703 | +$147 +8.6% | 43 |
| 129d |  TheEmprah3 fills | December 31 | BuyNo81¢ → 80¢ | $15,047 | −$294 −2.0% | 33 |
| 148d | bugmaster862 fills | December 31 | SellNo62¢ → 80¢ | $5,588 | −$1,560 −28% | — |
| 154d | bugmaster862 fills | December 31 | BuyNo81¢ → 80¢ | $7,298 | −$151 −2.1% | 33 |
| 158d | 0x9917…dfbe15 fills | December 31 | BuyNo80¢ | $42,245 | −$507 −1.2% | 33 |
| 158d | 0x9917…dfbe | December 31 | SellNo80¢ | $2,800 | +$18 +0.6% | — |
| 158d | 0x0f7b…c98e2 fills | December 31 | SellNo81¢ → 80¢ | $2,454 | +$45 +1.9% | — |
| 158d | 0x0f7b…c98e17 fills | December 31 | BuyNo81¢ → 80¢ | $21,019 | −$389 −1.9% | 33 |
| 158d | 0x3f73…d59717 fills | December 31 | BuyNo81¢ → 80¢ | $45,441 | −$842 −1.9% | 33 |
| 158d | 0x2c36…1abc11 fills | December 31 | BuyNo81¢ → 80¢ | $18,266 | −$338 −1.9% | 33 |
| 158d | 0x8e96…83f224 fills | December 31 | BuyNo81¢ → 80¢ | $77,180 | −$959 −1.2% | 33 |
| 158d | 0x8e96…83f2 | December 31 | SellNo80¢ | $3,200 | +$20 +0.6% | — |
| 165d | minisobaby | December 31 | SellNo83¢ → 80¢ | $1,051 | +$44 +4.2% | — |
| 199d | nicocardonac | US strike on Colombia by March 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $3,181 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 202d |  Melqui2 fills | US strike on Colombia by March 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,853 | +$15 +0.3% | 20 |
| 218d | putao | December 31 | SellNo76¢ → 80¢ | $16,711 | −$770 −4.6% | — |
| 218d | kaochang | December 31 | SellNo76¢ → 80¢ | $16,806 | −$774 −4.6% | — |
| 218d | chaotudou | December 31 | SellNo76¢ → 80¢ | $15,246 | −$702 −4.6% | — |
| 219d | putao | December 31 | BuyNo77¢ → 80¢ | $16,937 | +$550 +3.2% | 35 |
| 219d | kaochang | December 31 | BuyNo77¢ → 80¢ | $17,027 | +$553 +3.2% | 35 |
| 219d | chaotudou | December 31 | BuyNo77¢ → 80¢ | $15,428 | +$501 +3.2% | 35 |
| 226d |  TimRob | US strike on Colombia by March 31? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,118 | −$48 −4.3% | — |
| 227d | TimRob | US strike on Colombia by March 31? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,209 | +$25 +2.1% | 20 |
| 227d | BafanaBafana | US strike on Colombia by March 31? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,171 | +$36 +3.1% | 20 |
| 236d |  Arlette | US strike on Colombia by March 31? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,283 | +$137 +3.2% | 20 |
| 239d | TheEmprah2 fills | US strike on Colombia by March 31? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $12,672 | +$903 +7.1% | 20 |
| 240d | puregreed | December 31 | SellNo80¢ | $2,710 | +$17 +0.6% | — |
| 240d | therunout | December 31 | SellNo80¢ | $2,400 | +$15 +0.6% | — |
| 241d | M2sx92kljs42 | US strike on Colombia by March 31? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,341 | −$29 −2.1% | — |
| 248d | Admirable-Poem | US strike on Colombia by March 31? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $9,489 | +$371 +3.9% | 20 |
| 254d | Doppelpack2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo82¢ → 80¢ | $3,884 | −$105 −2.7% | 32 |
| 255d | JacobBrown5583 | December 31 | SellNo77¢ → 80¢ | $1,033 | −$34 −3.2% | — |
| 255d | JacobBrown5583 | December 31 | BuyNo78¢ → 80¢ | $1,044 | +$20 +1.9% | 35 |
| 255d |  Car5 fills | December 31 | SellNo71¢ → 80¢ | $8,771 | −$1,066 −12% | — |
| 256d | hasan96 | US strike on Colombia by March 31? | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $6,069 | −$377 −6.2% | — |
| 259d | Blond-Dragon | US strike on Colombia by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,003 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 260d | nonkenny90 | US strike on Colombia by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,109 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 260d |  Justitia | US strike on Colombia by January 31? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,996 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 260d | kgvdotcom | US strike on Colombia by January 31? | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,855 | +$17 +0.1% | 20 |
| 261d | nicocardonac2 fills | US strike on Colombia by March 31? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,944 | +$240 +8.2% | 21 |
| 261d | Justitia | US strike on Colombia by March 31? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $4,020 | +$352 +8.8% | 21 |
| 261d | superstation | US strike on Colombia by March 31? | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,764 | −$153 −8.7% | — |
| 262d | javarisjavarjavarisonlamar | US strike on Colombia by January 31? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,979 | −$21 −0.7% | — |
| 263d | TuViejaa | US strike on Colombia by January 31? | SellNo100¢ | $1,025 | −$5 −0.5% | — |
| 264d | hasan96 | US strike on Colombia by March 31? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $5,972 | +$473 +7.9% | 20 |
| 264d | tir1234 | US strike on Colombia by January 31? | SellNo100¢ | $2,129 | −$11 −0.5% | — |
| 264d |  Roflan-ludoman | US strike on Colombia by January 31? | SellNo100¢ | $1,791 | −$9 −0.5% | — |
| 265d | MoonLambo12052 fills | US strike on Colombia by March 31? | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $6,167 | +$805 +13% | 21 |
| 266d | Doppelpack | US strike on Colombia by March 31? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,941 | +$281 +15% | 20 |
| 268d |  DaytonaOne | US strike on Colombia by January 31? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,733 | −$97 −1.1% | — |
| 268d | Separate-Trunk | US strike on Colombia by January 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $10,532 | +$117 +1.1% | 20 |
| 268d | madman666 | US strike on Colombia by January 31? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,008 | +$22 +1.1% | 20 |
| 268d | therunout | December 31 | BuyNo75¢ → 80¢ | $2,249 | +$136 +6.1% | 37 |
| 269d |  ImJustKen | US strike on Colombia by January 31? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,063 | −$14 −1.3% | — |
| 271d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | US strike on Colombia by January 31? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,860 | −$38 −2.1% | — |
| 271d | Huludubu3 fills | US strike on Colombia by January 31? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,854 | −$196 −2.5% | — |
tetrose11,953 sharesde5nuts10,213 shares
crypto-basenji7,528 shares
LiquidatedDegen6,321 shares
PaddyAlpha4,944 shares
NEXUS9993,179 sharesTheEmprah21,273 shares
Belgaron10,458 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 21¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 21%.