| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Ends in 806d | Yes | 20,791 | 15¢ → 27¢ | $5,510 | +$2,333 +73% |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Ends ended | No | 3,819 | 81¢ → 83¢ | $3,181 | +$90 +2.9% |
| Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 3,333 | 60¢ → 89¢ | $2,950 | +$950 +47% |
| Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?Ends in 164d | No | 2,663 | 50¢ → 95¢ | $2,524 | +$1,193 +90% |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 2,088 | 71¢ → 90¢ | $1,879 | +$397 +27% |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 45,021 | 3¢ → 3¢ | $1,508 | +$248 +20% |
| Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?Ends in 134d | No | 1,594 | 18¢ → 93¢ | $1,483 | +$1,197 +420% |
| Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Ends in 8d | Yes | 12,500 | 16¢ → 12¢ | $1,438 | −$563 −28% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 4,885 | 55¢ → 29¢ | $1,395 | −$1,279 −48% |
| Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?Ends in 256d | No | 3,812 | 50¢ → 28¢ | $1,086 | −$820 −43% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 1,551 | 31¢ → 66¢ | $1,022 | +$538 +111% |
| Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?Ends in 14d | No | 983 | 74¢ → 99¢ | $977 | +$255 +35% |
| Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?Ends in 165d | No | 1,000 | 3¢ → 92¢ | $916 | +$884 +2761% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 902 | 17¢ → 92¢ | $825 | +$672 +438% |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 826 | 83¢ → 95¢ | $780 | +$95 +14% |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 3,483 | 38¢ → 21¢ | $714 | −$610 −46% |
| 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?Ends in 106d | No | 679 | 44¢ → 96¢ | $653 | +$353 +118% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | No | 661 | 54¢ → 93¢ | $614 | +$258 +72% |
| No one announced as next James Bond?Ends in 75d | No | 630 | 63¢ → 66¢ | $418 | +$23 +5.8% |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?Ends in 78d | No | 549 | 68¢ → 74¢ | $404 | +$30 +8.1% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 617 | 34¢ → 64¢ | $395 | +$187 +90% |
| Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?Ends in 14d | Yes | 4,822 | 9¢ → 6¢ | $265 | −$169 −39% |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?Ends in 806d | No | 408 | 28¢ → 65¢ | $263 | +$149 +130% |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Ends in 76d | No | 360 | 70¢ → 71¢ | $254 | +$2 +0.7% |
| Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Ends in 440d | No | 292 | 60¢ → 68¢ | $197 | +$22 +12% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 11d | Yes | 1,387 | 24¢ → 14¢ | $187 | −$146 −44% |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 532 | 66¢ → 35¢ | $184 | −$168 −48% |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Ends in 17d | Yes | 309 | 55¢ → 59¢ | $181 | +$11 +6.4% |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 1,323 | 26¢ → 14¢ | $179 | −$165 −48% |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet?Ends in 75d | Yes | 976 | 32¢ → 18¢ | $176 | −$137 −44% |
| Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Ends in 17d | No | 334 | 36¢ → 47¢ | $157 | +$37 +31% |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 1,129 | 14¢ → 14¢ | $152 | −$6 −3.6% |
| Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 156 | 7¢ → 84¢ | $130 | +$119 +1093% |
| Will Lorenia Valles Sampedro win the 2027 Sonora Governor Election?Ends in 232d | No | 368 | 50¢ → 33¢ | $122 | −$63 −34% |
| Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?Ends in 440d | Yes | 195 | 27¢ → 32¢ | $62 | +$10 +19% |
| Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?Ends in 75d | No | 68 | 42¢ → 92¢ | $62 | +$34 +119% |
| Will Trump meet with King Mohammed VI in 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 345 | 24¢ → 18¢ | $60 | −$22 −27% |
| Will Juraj Droba win the 2026 Bratislava Region gubernatorial election?Ends in 7d | No | 1,321 | 11¢ → 4¢ | $56 | −$90 −62% |
| Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?Ends in 75d | No | 168 | 24¢ → 25¢ | $41 | +$1 +2.1% |
| Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?Ends in 13d | Yes | 698 | 22¢ → 6¢ | $40 | −$114 −74% |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 75d | Yes | 134 | 18¢ → 25¢ | $33 | +$9 +36% |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?Ends in 14d | Yes | 549 | 22¢ → 6¢ | $30 | −$91 −75% |
| Will no listed leader be out before 2027?Ends in 75d | Yes | 54 | 39¢ → 56¢ | $30 | +$9 +44% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Ends ended | Yes | 91 | 10¢ → 31¢ | $28 | +$19 +209% |
| Will John Kelly win the next Hobart mayoral election?Ends in 10d | No | 44 | 43¢ → 64¢ | $28 | +$9 +49% |
| Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?Ends ended | Yes | 27 | 6¢ → 97¢ | $26 | +$25 +1517% |
| Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?Ends in 182d | Yes | 655 | 1¢ → 3¢ | $19 | +$15 +321% |
| Will Chen Yu-jen win the next Kinmen County Magistrate election?Ends in 42d | No | 419 | 11¢ → 5¢ | $19 | −$27 −59% |
| Will Alfonso Sánchez García win the 2027 Tlaxcala Governor Election?Ends in 232d | Yes | 319 | 11¢ → 6¢ | $18 | −$18 −50% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 75d | No | 21 | 48¢ → 65¢ | $13 | +$3 +34% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 14 | 72¢ → 87¢ | $12 | +$2 +20% |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?Ends in 75d | No | 16 | 34¢ → 73¢ | $12 | +$6 +117% |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Ends in 13d | Yes | 152 | 27¢ → 8¢ | $11 | −$29 −72% |
| Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?Ends in 75d | Yes | 67 | 19¢ → 17¢ | $11 | −$2 −13% |
| Will Werner Graf be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?Ends ended | Yes | 687 | 6¢ → 1¢ | $8 | −$32 −81% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 74d | Yes | 261 | 9¢ → 2¢ | $5 | −$18 −77% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 1,817 | 75¢ → <1¢ | $4 | −$1,359 −100% |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?Ends in 12d | Yes | 3 | 8¢ → 97¢ | $2 | +$2 +1108% |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 10d | Yes | 5 | 27¢ → 32¢ | $2 | +$0 +17% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?Ends in 14d | Yes | 28 | 6¢ → 3¢ | $1 | −$1 −57% |
| Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IPO day?Ends in 75d | Yes | 34 | 5¢ → 1¢ | $0 | −$1 −80% |
| Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,176,000 and $1,198,000 on September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 50 | 36¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$18 −100% |
| Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 2,807 | 22¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$618 −100% |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 181 | 28¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$51 −100% |
| Will Chow Hang-tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 713 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$26 −100% |
| Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q3 2026Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,594 | 2¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$32 −100% |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 7,771 | 31¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2,427 −100% |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 2 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$0 −100% |
| Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 201 | 47¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$95 −100% |
| Will CDU win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 2,164 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$22 −100% |
| Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 3,056 | 73¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2,241 −100% |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 293 | 16¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$47 −100% |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 116 | 14¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$16 −100% |
| Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 835 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$25 −100% |
| Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,697 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$68 −100% |
| Will Carlos Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 659 | 4¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$26 −100% |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 2,627 | 3¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$67 −100% |
| Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 167 | 33¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$55 −100% |
| Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 826 | 18¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$148 −100% |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by October 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 1,999 | 11¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$220 −100% |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 223 | 26¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$58 −100% |
