Polymarket · World
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | 22% | — | −1 pts | 21¢ · 22¢ (1¢) | — | in 75d |
| J.D. Vance | 17% | — | −2 pts | 16¢ · 17¢ (1¢) | — | in 75d |
| Donald Trump | 7% | — | +2 pts | 7¢ · 7¢ (<1¢) | — | in 75d |
| Masoud Pezeshkian | 14% | — | +1 pts | 13¢ · 14¢ (1¢) | — | in 75d |
| Marco Rubio | 9% | — | — | 8¢ · 9¢ (1¢) | — | in 75d |
| Ahmad Vahidi | 4% | — | 0 pts | 4¢ · 4¢ (<1¢) | — | in 75d |
| Mohammed bin Salman | 2% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 4¢ (3¢) | — | in 75d |
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 2% | — | −1 pts | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | — | in 75d |
| Pete Hegseth | 5% | — | +1 pts | 4¢ · 6¢ (2¢) | — | in 75d |
| Esmail Qaani | 3% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 3¢ · 3¢ (1¢) | — | in 75d |
| Abbas Araghchi | 30% | −2 pts | −11 pts | 29¢ · 30¢ (1¢) | — | in 75d |
| Jared Kushner | 32% | −1 pts | −11 pts | 31¢ · 32¢ (1¢) | — | in 75d |
| Ishaq Dar | 12% | — | −9 pts | 11¢ · 12¢ (1¢) | $644 | in 75d |
| Kazem Gharibabadi | 24% | −1 pts | −10 pts | 23¢ · 24¢ (1¢) | $299 | in 75d |
| Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani | 24% | −1 pts | −14 pts | 23¢ · 24¢ (1¢) | $239 | in 75d |
| Rafael Grossi | 14% | — | −2 pts | 13¢ · 14¢ (1¢) | $188 | in 75d |
| Nick Stewart | 25% | +1 pts | +3 pts | 24¢ · 25¢ (1¢) | $174 | in 75d |
| Elon Musk | 3% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 4¢ (2¢) | $158 | in 75d |
| Palmer Luckey | 2% | −1 pts | −1 pts | <1¢ · 3¢ (3¢) | $91.7 | in 75d |
| Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi | 14% | — | — | 14¢ · 15¢ (1¢) | $40 | in 75d |
| Majid Takht-Ravanchi | 21% | −1 pts | −6 pts | 20¢ · 21¢ (1¢) | $15.3 | in 75d |
| Newt Gingrich | 2% | −2 pts | −1 pts | 1¢ · 4¢ (3¢) | $10 | in 75d |
| Steve Witkoff | 33% | — | −10 pts | 32¢ · 34¢ (2¢) | $5.07 | in 75d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d | Ishaq Dar | BuyNo81¢ → 89¢ | $5,100 | +$469 +9.2% | 17 | |
| 2d | Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi | BuyNo81¢ → 86¢ | $9,612 | +$580 +6.0% | 17 | |
| 2d | Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi | SellNo87¢ → 86¢ | $3,162 | +$65 +2.0% | — | |
| 2d | Kazem Gharibabadi | BuyNo74¢ → 77¢ | $2,264 | +$75 +3.3% | 21 | |
| 2d | Nick Stewart | BuyNo76¢ | $5,020 | −$51 −1.0% | 20 | |
| 2d | 2dd3 | Donald Trump | SellYes20¢ → 7¢ | $1,282 | +$828 +65% | — |
| 3d | bimaw | Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani | SellNo68¢ → 77¢ | $6,868 | −$858 −12% | — |
| 3d | qianliy2 fills | Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani | SellNo68¢ → 77¢ | $6,256 | −$782 −12% | — |
| 3d | shunfer | Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani | SellNo68¢ → 77¢ | $7,616 | −$952 −12% | — |
| 3d | dandhe | Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani | SellYes31¢ → 24¢ | $2,511 | +$607 +24% | — |
| 3d | dandhe2 fills | Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani | BuyYes33¢ → 24¢ | $5,115 | −$1,473 −29% | 29 |
| 3d | qianliy | Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani | BuyNo67¢ → 77¢ | $6,164 | +$874 +14% | 24 |
| 3d | liusha2 fills | Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani | BuyYes33¢ → 24¢ | $4,587 | −$1,320 −29% | 29 |
| 5d | Masoud Pezeshkian | SellNo87¢ | $2,135 | +$12 +0.6% | — | |
| 8d | Kazem Gharibabadi | SellNo79¢ → 77¢ | $1,188 | +$34 +2.9% | — | |
| 8d | Ishaq Dar | SellNo87¢ → 89¢ | $2,488 | −$48 −1.9% | — | |
| 11d | TronOG | Mojtaba Khamenei | BuyNo98¢ | $1,903 | +$11 +0.6% | 4 |
| 11d | TronOG | Elon Musk | BuyNo99¢ → 97¢ | $2,346 | −$27 −1.2% | 5 |
| 11d | Marco Rubio | SellNo92¢ | $1,326 | +$7 +0.5% | — | |
| 14d | TronOG | Esmail Qaani | BuyNo94¢ → 97¢ | $3,072 | +$92 +3.0% | 4 |
| 14d | TronOG | Ahmad Vahidi | BuyNo95¢ → 96¢ | $1,577 | +$14 +0.9% | 4 |
| 14d | aviato | Palmer Luckey | BuyNo95¢ → 98¢ | $1,234 | +$42 +3.4% | 7 |
| 14d | Masoud Pezeshkian | BuyNo88¢ → 87¢ | $2,543 | −$31 −1.2% | 4 | |
| 15d | Elon Musk | BuyNo96¢ → 97¢ | $1,210 | +$20 +1.6% | 7 | |
| 15d | Mojtaba Khamenei | BuyNo97¢ → 98¢ | $1,075 | +$18 +1.7% | 4 | |
| 17d | Masoud Pezeshkian | BuyNo85¢ → 87¢ | $1,894 | +$25 +1.3% | 4 | |
| 18d | Mohammed bin Salman | BuyNo89¢ → 98¢ | $3,344 | +$336 +10% | 4 | |
| 21d | Ishaq Dar | BuyNo69¢ → 89¢ | $2,012 | +$578 +29% | 24 | |
| 21d | Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,659 | +$9 +0.3% | 4 | |
| 21d | Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,614 | +$120 +4.6% | 4 | |
| 21d | 5555five | Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,564 | +$224 +8.7% | 4 |
| 21d | Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,084 | +$170 +16% | 4 | |
| 21d | Rafael Grossi | BuyNo71¢ → 87¢ | $1,035 | +$218 +21% | 23 | |
| 23d | Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | SellNo30¢ → 0¢ | $1,073 | +$1,073 +100% | — | |
| 23d | KiernanMeister | Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $4,153 | +$1,847 +44% | 4 |
| 23d | Marco Rubio | BuyNo89¢ → 92¢ | $3,118 | +$103 +3.3% | 4 | |
| 24d | Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | SellYes77¢ → 100¢ | $1,417 | −$421 −30% | — | |
| 24d | Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | SellYes77¢ → 100¢ | $1,349 | −$396 −29% | — | |
| 24d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2 | Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,009 | +$17 +0.2% | 4 |
| 24d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2 | Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,623 | +$13 +0.2% | 4 |
| 24d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2 | Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,908 | +$12 +0.3% | 4 |
| 24d | Evwo-Jaza | Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,801 | +$19 +1.0% | 4 |
| 24d | Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,077 | +$41 +3.8% | 4 | |
| 25d | taiyizh | Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | SellYes37¢ → 100¢ | $4,089 | −$6,962 −170% | — |
| 25d | Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | SellNo65¢ → 0¢ | $3,414 | +$3,414 +100% | — | |
| 26d | tieshan | Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | SellNo67¢ → 0¢ | $7,571 | +$7,571 +100% | — |
| 26d | huoysh | Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | SellNo67¢ → 0¢ | $7,035 | +$7,035 +100% | — |
| 26d | huoysh | Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BuyNo67¢ → 0¢ | $7,437 | −$7,437 −100% | 4 |
| 26d | zhizhuj | Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BuyNo67¢ → 0¢ | $7,404 | −$7,404 −100% | 4 |
| 26d | tieshan | Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BuyNo68¢ → 0¢ | $7,140 | −$7,140 −100% | 4 |
| 26d | Donald Trump | BuyNo89¢ → 93¢ | $1,932 | +$89 +4.6% | 4 | |
| 28d | Donald Trump | BuyNo90¢ → 93¢ | $1,343 | +$47 +3.5% | 4 | |
| 29d | melonmanm | Masoud Pezeshkian | BuyNo84¢ → 87¢ | $1,494 | +$39 +2.6% | 4 |
| 29d | Ahmad Vahidi | SellNo95¢ → 96¢ | $1,911 | −$19 −1.0% | — | |
| 29d | Pete Hegseth | SellNo94¢ → 95¢ | $1,523 | −$16 −1.1% | — | |
| 29d | J.D. Vance | BuyYes23¢ → 17¢ | $1,500 | −$404 −27% | 6 | |
| 30d | J.D. Vance | BuyNo78¢ → 84¢ | $1,497 | +$106 +7.1% | 4 | |
| 31d | starbr | Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | SellNo81¢ → 79¢ | $12,038 | +$372 +3.1% | — |
| 31d | teacheer | Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | SellNo81¢ → 79¢ | $7,689 | +$237 +3.1% | — |
| 31d | easna | Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | SellNo81¢ → 79¢ | $7,677 | +$237 +3.1% | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 22¢ for Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf means the market gives it about 22%.