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Polymarket · Politics
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathilde Panot | 3% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 2¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | — | in 183d |
| Jordan Bardella | 3% | — | −3 pts | 2¢ · 3¢ (1¢) | — | in 183d |
| Élisabeth Borne | 6% | — | 0 pts | 6¢ · 7¢ (1¢) | — | in 183d |
| Manuel Bompard | 7% | — | −1 pts | 5¢ · 8¢ (3¢) | — | in 183d |
| Dominique de Villepin | 55% | −3 pts | −15 pts | 49¢ · 61¢ (12¢) | — | in 183d |
| Gérald Darmanin | 6% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 5¢ · 6¢ (1¢) | — | in 183d |
| François Bayrou | 6% | — | −1 pts | 6¢ · 7¢ (1¢) | — | in 183d |
| Jean Castex | 3% | — | 0 pts | 2¢ · 3¢ (1¢) | — | in 183d |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 8% | — | −1 pts | 8¢ · 9¢ (1¢) | — | in 183d |
| Michel Barnier | 6% | — | +1 pts | 5¢ · 7¢ (2¢) | — | in 183d |
| Carole Delga | 2% | −2 pts | −3 pts | 1¢ · 4¢ (3¢) | $500 | in 183d |
| François Hollande | 34% | −1 pts | −10 pts | 23¢ · 44¢ (21¢) | $135 | in 183d |
| Valérie Pécresse | 4% | −1 pts | +1 pts | 3¢ · 5¢ (2¢) | $100 | in 183d |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 4% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 3¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | $50 | in 183d |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 27% | −3 pts | −11 pts | 13¢ · 41¢ (28¢) | $5.81 | in 183d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17d |  DFK | Jordan Bardella | BuyNo94¢ → 97¢ | $1,799 | +$62 +3.5% | 20 |
| 100d | Palace8709 | Will Marine Le Pen announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,709 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 101d | PascalPro | Will Marine Le Pen announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,470 | +$30 +2.0% | 20 |
| 101d | gustrot | Will Marine Le Pen announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,618 | +$200 +12% | 20 |
| 102d | GoodNightIHope2 fills | Mathilde Panot | SellNo97¢ | $4,256 | +$16 +0.4% | — |
| 104d | GoodNightIHope | Mathilde Panot | BuyNo92¢ → 97¢ | $1,055 | +$60 +5.7% | 20 |
LornaPredicts598 shares
FrozenParasite224 sharesThe next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 3¢ for Mathilde Panot means the market gives it about 3%.
