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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Bond chosen | 34% | +4 pts | +1 pts | 33¢ · 34¢ (1¢) | $4.43K | in 76d |
| Jack Lowden | 33% | 0 pts | −5 pts | 33¢ · 33¢ (<1¢) | $50 | in 76d |
| Callum Turner | 19% | +1 pts | +7 pts | 18¢ · 21¢ (3¢) | $2.47K | in 76d |
| Jack Barton | 4% | — | −1 pts | 4¢ · 4¢ (<1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Josh O'Connor | 3% | −2 pts | +1 pts | 1¢ · 5¢ (4¢) | $65.3 | in 76d |
| Jack O'Connell | 2% | −1 pts | −1 pts | 2¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Jacob Elordi | 2% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · 4¢ (4¢) | $313 | in 76d |
| Tom Francis | 1% | — | −3 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Paul Mescal | 1% | — | −2 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Harris Dickinson | 1% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Henry Cavill | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Aaron Taylor-Johnson | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Tom Hardy | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Richard Madden | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | in 76d |
| Theo James | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $24.9 | in 76d |
| James Norton | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| Pierce Brosnan | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| Tom Holland | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| Timothee Chalamet | <1% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| Nicholas Galitzine | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| Jonathan Bailey | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| Robert James-Collier | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| Michael B Jordan | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| Tom Blyth | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | prostakov | No Bond chosen | BuyYes28¢ → 34¢ | $1,140 | +$208 +18% | 41 |
| 4d |  HukaBars | No Bond chosen | SellNo70¢ → 66¢ | $2,182 | +$115 +5.2% | — |
| 8d | prinzealbert4 fills | No Bond chosen | BuyYes26¢ → 34¢ | $6,471 | +$2,051 +32% | 49 |
| 12d |  Sylvester.the.Cat4 fills | No Bond chosen | BuyNo78¢ → 66¢ | $12,991 | −$1,938 −15% | 35 |
| 15d | arbandy3 fills | No Bond chosen | SellYes24¢ → 34¢ | $3,694 | −$1,448 −39% | — |
| 16d | prinzealbert7 fills | Jack Lowden | BuyYes50¢ → 33¢ | $18,214 | −$6,238 −34% | 40 |
| 17d | PCjT1viNMz | No Bond chosen | BuyNo81¢ → 66¢ | $9,796 | −$1,782 −18% | 33 |
| 17d |  ImJustKen | Jack Lowden | SellYes43¢ → 33¢ | $2,418 | +$546 +23% | — |
| 17d | ImJustKen6 fills | No Bond chosen | BuyNo74¢ → 66¢ | $82,856 | −$8,950 −11% | 37 |
| 18d |  Attack-Titan | Jack Lowden | BuyYes49¢ → 33¢ | $1,067 | −$342 −32% | 40 |
| 20d | Newmski | Jack Lowden | BuyYes42¢ → 33¢ | $1,100 | −$235 −21% | 40 |
| 24d | prostakov | Jack Lowden | BuyYes43¢ → 33¢ | $1,000 | −$233 −23% | 40 |
| 24d | KiernanMeister3 fills | No Bond chosen | BuyYes21¢ → 34¢ | $9,017 | +$5,187 +58% | 52 |
| 28d | JustHereWaiting | No Bond chosen | BuyNo79¢ → 66¢ | $3,945 | −$630 −16% | 34 |
| 29d |  BigMackyG2 fills | No Bond chosen | BuyYes21¢ → 34¢ | $3,392 | +$2,070 +61% | 47 |
| 30d |  Bobic2 fills | Jack Barton | BuyNo84¢ → 96¢ | $4,500 | +$684 +15% | 20 |
| 31d | hell0pia | Jack Lowden | BuyYes36¢ → 33¢ | $1,995 | −$183 −9.2% | 42 |
| 32d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Callum Turner | SellNo85¢ → 81¢ | $1,630 | +$79 +4.8% | — |
| 32d | KiernanMeister5 fills | Jack Lowden | BuyNo76¢ → 67¢ | $13,373 | −$1,645 −12% | 36 |
| 32d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Callum Turner | BuyNo88¢ → 81¢ | $1,724 | −$130 −7.5% | 28 |
| 34d | arbandy3 fills | No Bond chosen | BuyYes22¢ → 34¢ | $5,030 | +$2,844 +57% | 49 |
| 37d | TheImpasse | Jack Barton | BuyNo89¢ → 96¢ | $1,123 | +$96 +8.6% | 20 |
| 39d |  GollumGekko | No Bond chosen | BuyNo79¢ → 66¢ | $3,160 | −$508 −16% | 34 |
| 39d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed2 fills | No Bond chosen | BuyNo79¢ → 66¢ | $2,577 | −$406 −16% | 34 |
| 39d |  05005 | No Bond chosen | BuyNo79¢ → 66¢ | $1,000 | −$161 −16% | 33 |
| 41d |  ImBruceWayne | No Bond chosen | SellYes23¢ → 34¢ | $2,485 | −$1,089 −44% | — |
| 44d | lug | No Bond chosen | SellNo75¢ → 66¢ | $2,585 | +$289 +11% | — |
| 47d | ImBruceWayne2 fills | Jack Lowden | SellYes23¢ → 33¢ | $2,559 | −$1,146 −45% | — |
| 47d | spyr0 | Jack Barton | BuyNo81¢ → 96¢ | $1,435 | +$262 +18% | 20 |
| 48d | KiernanMeister | Jack O'Connell | BuyNo90¢ → 98¢ | $2,807 | +$228 +8.1% | 20 |
| 49d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | No Bond chosen | SellNo79¢ → 66¢ | $1,425 | +$228 +16% | — |
| 51d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Jack O'Connell | BuyNo92¢ → 98¢ | $1,301 | +$84 +6.5% | 20 |
| 52d | WarriorH | No Bond chosen | BuyNo79¢ → 66¢ | $1,243 | −$199 −16% | 34 |
| 52d | Complete-Assumption | No Bond chosen | SellYes22¢ → 34¢ | $1,650 | −$936 −57% | — |
| 52d | nananak2 fills | No Bond chosen | SellYes22¢ → 34¢ | $4,548 | −$2,574 −57% | — |
| 54d | ImBruceWayne | Jack Lowden | BuyYes23¢ → 33¢ | $1,500 | +$611 +41% | 42 |
| 55d | Truthful-Latte | No Bond chosen | SellYes22¢ → 34¢ | $2,150 | −$1,220 −57% | — |
| 55d | VvVvV | No Bond chosen | BuyNo78¢ → 66¢ | $2,000 | −$311 −16% | 34 |
| 56d | ImJustKen2 fills | No Bond chosen | BuyYes24¢ → 34¢ | $2,365 | +$961 +41% | 44 |
| 56d | ImJustKen2 fills | Theo James | BuyNo92¢ → >99¢ | $3,900 | +$321 +8.2% | 25 |
| 58d |  ineedmassage | Theo James | BuyNo85¢ → >99¢ | $1,406 | +$246 +17% | 30 |
| 58d | KiernanMeister | James Norton | BuyNo95¢ → >99¢ | $2,945 | +$145 +4.9% | 20 |
| 58d | KiernanMeister | Aaron Taylor-Johnson | BuyNo93¢ → >99¢ | $3,083 | +$232 +7.5% | 20 |
| 60d | ImJustKen | Jack Lowden | BuyNo72¢ → 67¢ | $6,957 | −$516 −7.4% | 38 |
| 61d | ImBruceWayne | No Bond chosen | BuyYes25¢ → 34¢ | $1,500 | +$521 +35% | 42 |
| 64d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Jack Lowden | BuyNo62¢ → 67¢ | $1,240 | +$101 +8.1% | 40 |
| 66d | shabalaba | No Bond chosen | BuyNo77¢ → 66¢ | $1,600 | −$228 −14% | 35 |
| 67d | KiernanMeister | Tom Hardy | BuyNo95¢ → >99¢ | $1,079 | +$50 +4.7% | 20 |
| 67d | KiernanMeister | Callum Turner | BuyNo78¢ → 81¢ | $3,682 | +$147 +4.0% | 35 |
| 68d | ImJustKen | Callum Turner | BuyNo73¢ → 81¢ | $1,942 | +$197 +10% | 38 |
BigMackyG25,166 sharesImJustKen84,781 sharesSylvester.the.Cat25,000 shares
pBs13375,000 shares
Outsid3rTrading5,000 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 34¢ for No Bond chosen means the market gives it about 34%.