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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 73% | +1 pts | −6 pts | 72¢ · 73¢ (1¢) | $38.6K | in 76d |
| December 15, 2026 | 62% | −6 pts | −13 pts | 61¢ · 62¢ (1¢) | $16.3K | in 60d |
| November 15, 2026 | 3% | −2 pts | −5 pts | 2¢ · 4¢ (2¢) | $14.5K | in 30d |
| November 30, 2026 | 56% | −4 pts | −6 pts | 55¢ · 56¢ (1¢) | $7.88K | in 45d |
| October 31, 2026 | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $2.42K | in 15d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55m |  FTX2.0 | November 15, 2026 | SellNo96¢ → 97¢ | $1,505 | −$8 −0.5% | — |
| 1h | JamesBonder007 | October 31, 2026 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,719 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 2h | Mushy-Mincemeat | December 31, 2026 | SellNo28¢ | $1,460 | +$34 +2.3% | — |
| 4h | fastandfudurious | November 15, 2026 | BuyNo97¢ | $1,228 | +$0 +0.0% | 21 |
| 4h | LJa7io23MCv954j3 fills | November 15, 2026 | BuyNo92¢ → 97¢ | $10,803 | +$561 +5.2% | 25 |
| 19h | 0x4b7d…cdb3 | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes67¢ → 73¢ | $2,500 | +$195 +7.8% | 25 |
| 21h |  tetrose | December 15, 2026 | BuyNo34¢ → 39¢ | $1,526 | +$227 +15% | 29 |
| 21h | tetrose | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo32¢ → 28¢ | $2,455 | −$346 −14% | 28 |
| 1d |  BigMaccyG | November 30, 2026 | SellNo40¢ → 44¢ | $3,014 | −$339 −11% | — |
| 1d | redvinny | December 15, 2026 | SellYes70¢ → 62¢ | $3,867 | +$484 +13% | — |
| 1d | redvinny3 fills | December 31, 2026 | SellYes78¢ → 73¢ | $11,869 | +$856 +7.2% | — |
| 1d |  rewardbots2 fills | November 30, 2026 | SellNo46¢ → 44¢ | $2,930 | +$109 +3.7% | — |
| 1d |  0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05 | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo29¢ → 28¢ | $2,030 | −$105 −5.2% | 27 |
| 1d | rewardbots | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo27¢ → 28¢ | $1,355 | +$19 +1.4% | 24 |
| 1d | yoyobb2018 | December 31, 2026 | SellYes76¢ → 73¢ | $1,520 | +$70 +4.6% | — |
| 1d | TheRealWarMonger | Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 2d | redvinny | December 15, 2026 | BuyYes71¢ → 62¢ | $2,130 | −$285 −13% | 30 |
| 2d | anoin1232 fills | October 31, 2026 | SellNo99¢ → >99¢ | $45,381 | −$162 −0.4% | — |
| 2d | redvinny3 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes73¢ | $6,106 | −$27 −0.4% | 31 |
| 3d |  elmcap23 fills | October 31, 2026 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,902 | +$47 +0.3% | 20 |
| 3d | Dry-Impropriety | October 31, 2026 | SellNo100¢ | $5,226 | −$16 −0.3% | — |
| 3d | hypebot2 | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo31¢ → 28¢ | $1,000 | −$113 −11% | 22 |
| 3d |  StupidMonkeyyy2 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes72¢ → 73¢ | $4,983 | +$18 +0.4% | 30 |
| 3d | StupidMonkeyyy | December 15, 2026 | BuyNo33¢ → 39¢ | $1,431 | +$263 +18% | 28 |
| 3d |  betwick | December 15, 2026 | BuyYes65¢ → 62¢ | $3,693 | −$219 −5.9% | 38 |
| 3d | betwick | November 30, 2026 | BuyYes54¢ → 56¢ | $3,817 | +$119 +3.1% | 40 |
| 3d | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05 | December 31, 2026 | SellYes67¢ → 73¢ | $1,329 | −$109 −8.2% | — |
| 3d | yoyobb20182 fills | Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,341 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 4d |  mewmew1 | October 31, 2026 | SellNo100¢ | $4,080 | −$12 −0.3% | — |
| 4d | Quarzo | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes69¢ → 73¢ | $1,008 | +$57 +5.7% | 22 |
| 4d | 0xe2ee17aafbdbf838e679f2087cabdc7ad33795a2 | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo30¢ → 28¢ | $1,431 | −$107 −7.4% | 24 |
| 4d | Determined-Cork | Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,301 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 5d | StupidMonkeyyy | December 15, 2026 | BuyYes64¢ → 62¢ | $1,887 | −$76 −4.0% | 29 |
| 5d | notssf3 | December 15, 2026 | BuyNo27¢ → 39¢ | $2,559 | +$1,090 +43% | 37 |
| 6d | momo513 | October 31, 2026 | SellNo99¢ → >99¢ | $2,908 | −$12 −0.4% | — |
| 6d | Jjw | October 31, 2026 | SellNo99¢ → >99¢ | $3,887 | −$16 −0.4% | — |
| 6d | Jjw | Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,012 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 6d | Hyrrrr | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo23¢ → 28¢ | $2,000 | +$434 +22% | 28 |
| 7d | M2sx92kljs422 fills | November 30, 2026 | BuyNo35¢ → 44¢ | $4,773 | +$1,344 +28% | 45 |
| 7d | afdafdafdafdafd | October 31, 2026 | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $3,027 | +$18 +0.6% | 21 |
| 8d |  hwey346ed3 fills | October 31, 2026 | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $10,327 | +$95 +0.9% | 21 |
| 9d | Dry-Impropriety | October 31, 2026 | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $5,191 | +$51 +1.0% | 21 |
| 9d | mewmew12 fills | November 15, 2026 | BuyNo89¢ → 97¢ | $5,318 | +$449 +8.4% | 27 |
| 10d |  LehmanBrother2.0 | November 15, 2026 | SellNo86¢ → 97¢ | $1,006 | −$125 −12% | — |
| 10d | charliealmanack | November 30, 2026 | BuyYes68¢ → 56¢ | $3,531 | −$649 −18% | 40 |
| 10d | StupidMonkeyyy | December 31, 2026 | SellYes84¢ → 73¢ | $1,670 | +$229 +14% | — |
| 10d | chillballer | December 31, 2026 | SellNo16¢ → 28¢ | $1,486 | −$1,096 −74% | — |
| 11d | Liechti0 | Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,059 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 11d | quakeroats - 20404 | December 31, 2026 | SellYes81¢ → 73¢ | $2,235 | +$226 +10% | — |
| 11d | RICDZ | November 30, 2026 | SellNo34¢ → 44¢ | $1,004 | −$317 −32% | — |
| 12d |  OraculumNobius | October 31, 2026 | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $1,303 | +$12 +0.9% | 21 |
| 12d |  knrad | Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,110 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 12d | jcsberger | December 15, 2026 | SellYes78¢ → 62¢ | $1,111 | +$235 +21% | — |
| 12d | Unfinished-Crisp | November 15, 2026 | SellNo91¢ → 97¢ | $1,050 | −$66 −6.3% | — |
| 12d | BigMaccyG | November 30, 2026 | BuyNo36¢ → 44¢ | $2,781 | +$611 +22% | 43 |
| 12d | Meek-Drummer | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes86¢ → 73¢ | $1,742 | −$273 −16% | 22 |
| 13d | Mushy-Mincemeat | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo19¢ → 28¢ | $1,895 | +$900 +48% | 28 |
| 13d | mewmew12 fills | October 31, 2026 | BuyNo78¢ → >99¢ | $5,801 | +$1,617 +28% | 35 |
| 13d |  iForgor2 fills | November 30, 2026 | SellYes65¢ → 56¢ | $2,607 | +$387 +15% | — |
| 13d | aiwar2 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes84¢ → 73¢ | $2,934 | −$397 −14% | 23 |
Erasmus.20,706 shares
GollumGekko9,379 sharesStupidMonkeyyy8,846 shares
occasionalAwareness34,579 sharesBigMaccyG19,466 sharesrewardbots11,496 shares
ThanksGivingTurkey100110,000 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 73¢ for December 31, 2026 means the market gives it about 73%.