Polymarket · Politics
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 65% | — | +2 pts | 64¢ · 65¢ (1¢) | $54.6K | in 17d |
| Republican Party | 37% | — | — | 36¢ · 37¢ (1¢) | $118K | in 17d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11m | yexiaodong3335 fills | Republican Party | BuyYes37¢ | $25,090 | −$580 −2.3% | 35 |
| 40m | allenhall2 fills | Republican Party | SellYes36¢ → 37¢ | $3,979 | −$55 −1.4% | — |
| 1h | Heskel2 | Republican Party | SellYes36¢ → 37¢ | $1,345 | −$19 −1.4% | — |
| 2h | HowBoutThemCowboys | Republican Party | BuyYes37¢ | $5,000 | −$68 −1.4% | 17 |
| 2h | Cainez | Republican Party | BuyYes37¢ | $1,000 | −$14 −1.4% | 11 |
| 10h | Republican Party | BuyNo64¢ | $32,000 | −$250 −0.8% | 30 | |
| 10h | Democratic Party | BuyNo36¢ | $1,207 | −$17 −1.4% | 12 | |
| 19h | reketor | Democratic Party | BuyYes66¢ → 65¢ | $22,389 | −$383 −1.7% | 30 |
| 19h | kaxel782 fills | Republican Party | BuyNo63¢ → 64¢ | $2,033 | +$0 +0.0% | 11 |
| 19h | Likaseent | Republican Party | BuyNo64¢ | $1,064 | −$8 −0.8% | 11 |
| 20h | fbet3 fills | Democratic Party | BuyYes65¢ | $4,446 | −$34 −0.8% | 17 |
| 1d | Gonzillamemes | Democratic Party | BuyYes65¢ | $32,799 | −$252 −0.8% | 30 |
| 1d | Bigggggggg | Republican Party | BuyNo63¢ → 64¢ | $3,150 | +$25 +0.8% | 12 |
| 1d | Republican Party | BuyNo63¢ → 64¢ | $1,575 | +$13 +0.8% | 11 | |
| 1d | dyavolik | Democratic Party | BuyYes65¢ | $2,125 | −$16 −0.8% | 13 |
| 1d | yfaichan | Republican Party | BuyYes38¢ → 37¢ | $1,000 | −$39 −3.9% | 11 |
| 1d | skydodo | Republican Party | SellNo63¢ → 64¢ | $1,821 | −$20 −1.1% | — |
| 1d | Republican Party | BuyYes42¢ → 37¢ | $14,000 | −$1,872 −13% | 23 | |
| 1d | Democratic Party | BuyYes64¢ → 65¢ | $47,676 | +$372 +0.8% | 30 | |
| 1d | f0afjr2 fills | Republican Party | BuyYes37¢ | $9,839 | −$66 −0.7% | 22 |
| 2d | shama1024 | Democratic Party | BuyYes64¢ → 65¢ | $5,000 | +$39 +0.8% | 17 |
| 2d | Serega38 | Democratic Party | BuyYes64¢ → 65¢ | $3,008 | +$24 +0.8% | 14 |
| 2d | Welostbetting | Democratic Party | SellYes63¢ → 65¢ | $2,119 | −$50 −2.4% | — |
| 2d | Republican Party | SellNo63¢ → 64¢ | $1,397 | −$11 −0.8% | — | |
| 2d | Republican Party | BuyNo63¢ → 64¢ | $1,397 | +$11 +0.8% | 11 | |
| 2d | anoin123 | Republican Party | SellYes37¢ | $3,548 | +$48 +1.4% | — |
| 2d | anoin123 | Democratic Party | SellNo36¢ | $6,614 | +$92 +1.4% | — |
| 2d | Sagand | Democratic Party | BuyYes64¢ → 65¢ | $1,000 | +$8 +0.8% | 11 |
| 3d | ZhouCD2 fills | Republican Party | SellYes36¢ → 37¢ | $4,127 | −$37 −0.9% | — |
| 3d | midterms | Republican Party | BuyNo63¢ → 64¢ | $14,840 | +$118 +0.8% | 20 |
| 3d | allenhall2 fills | Republican Party | BuyYes37¢ | $3,130 | −$27 −0.9% | 15 |
| 3d | Welostbetting | Democratic Party | BuyYes64¢ → 65¢ | $2,152 | +$17 +0.8% | 13 |
| 3d | midterms | Democratic Party | BuyYes64¢ → 65¢ | $1,600 | +$13 +0.8% | 12 |
| 3d | ku8h96de4 | Republican Party | BuyYes37¢ | $1,000 | −$14 −1.4% | 11 |
| 3d | Flawed-Doc | Democratic Party | BuyNo37¢ → 36¢ | $1,684 | −$68 −4.1% | 14 |
| 3d | DonkDaWarrior | Republican Party | BuyYes37¢ | $1,036 | −$14 −1.4% | 11 |
| 3d | ClauseAI3 fills | Republican Party | BuyYes38¢ → 37¢ | $11,682 | −$317 −2.7% | 24 |
| 3d | segment3 | Republican Party | BuyNo64¢ | $1,280 | −$10 −0.8% | 11 |
| 3d | Republican Party | BuyNo64¢ | $6,000 | −$47 −0.8% | 14 | |
| 4d | Reflecting-Cub | Republican Party | BuyNo64¢ | $1,000 | −$8 −0.8% | 14 |
| 4d | Republican Party | BuyNo63¢ → 64¢ | $4,355 | +$35 +0.8% | 13 | |
| 4d | Hurtful-Steeple2 fills | Republican Party | BuyYes38¢ → 37¢ | $3,707 | −$117 −3.2% | 16 |
| 4d | Investman | Republican Party | BuyYes37¢ | $1,553 | −$21 −1.4% | 12 |
| 5d | Experienced-Paradise | Democratic Party | BuyYes64¢ → 65¢ | $1,000 | +$8 +0.8% | 11 |
| 5d | sunsanity2 fills | Republican Party | SellYes43¢ → 37¢ | $4,776 | +$748 +16% | — |
| 5d | hell0pia3 fills | Democratic Party | SellYes64¢ → 65¢ | $6,301 | −$84 −1.3% | — |
| 5d | Impossible-Flint | Democratic Party | BuyYes64¢ → 65¢ | $10,000 | +$78 +0.8% | 25 |
| 6d | freshsocket4 fills | Democratic Party | BuyYes64¢ → 65¢ | $8,630 | +$126 +1.5% | 23 |
| 6d | Heskel2 | Republican Party | BuyYes37¢ | $1,104 | −$15 −1.4% | 11 |
| 6d | annacallsit | Democratic Party | BuyYes63¢ → 65¢ | $1,386 | +$33 +2.4% | 12 |
| 6d | 50degrees2 fills | Democratic Party | BuyYes64¢ → 65¢ | $2,575 | +$0 +0.0% | 14 |
| 7d | 0xb55c6dc1dafc7c30f48d617252ee75bcc5c540a32 fills | Republican Party | SellYes40¢ → 37¢ | $9,042 | +$840 +9.3% | — |
| 7d | imgerror | Democratic Party | SellYes62¢ → 65¢ | $1,023 | −$41 −4.0% | — |
| 7d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed2 fills | Republican Party | SellNo58¢ → 64¢ | $2,320 | −$220 −9.5% | — |
| 7d | Democratic Party | BuyNo36¢ | $36,634 | −$558 −1.5% | 40 | |
| 8d | jumpingjehoshaphat | Democratic Party | SellYes63¢ → 65¢ | $1,002 | −$24 −2.4% | — |
| 8d | jumpingjehoshaphat4 fills | Democratic Party | BuyYes63¢ → 65¢ | $4,497 | +$107 +2.4% | 17 |
| 8d | lettuce26 | Republican Party | BuyYes36¢ → 37¢ | $2,498 | +$23 +0.9% | 14 |
| 8d | Flako.MT | Democratic Party | BuyYes63¢ → 65¢ | $2,000 | +$48 +2.4% | 13 |
| 8d | cowcat2 fills | Republican Party | BuyYes36¢ → 37¢ | $5,800 | +$81 +1.4% | 19 |
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 65¢ for Democratic Party means the market gives it about 65%.