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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 27% | +1 pts | +1 pts | 26¢ · 27¢ (1¢) | $6.4K | in 75d |
| November 30 | 14% | — | — | 14¢ · 15¢ (1¢) | $3.17K | in 44d |
| October 31 | 3% | −1 pts | −4 pts | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $2.65K | in 14d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22h |  GammaSqueeze1234 | December 31 | BuyNo75¢ → 74¢ | $3,000 | −$60 −2.0% | 21 |
| 2d | llongw | December 31 | SellNo74¢ | $5,994 | +$41 +0.7% | — |
| 2d | dayuzs | December 31 | SellNo74¢ | $8,140 | +$55 +0.7% | — |
| 2d | bimaw2 fills | December 31 | SellNo74¢ | $7,400 | +$50 +0.7% | — |
| 2d | rensheg | December 31 | SellNo74¢ | $7,252 | +$49 +0.7% | — |
| 3d |  Raskell | November 30 | SellYes21¢ → 14¢ | $1,772 | +$542 +31% | — |
| 3d | dandhe3 fills | December 31 | BuyYes31¢ → 27¢ | $7,595 | −$1,102 −15% | 31 |
| 3d | qianliy2 fills | December 31 | BuyYes31¢ → 27¢ | $4,464 | −$648 −15% | 29 |
| 3d | Raskell | November 30 | BuyYes19¢ → 14¢ | $1,338 | −$309 −23% | 26 |
| 4d | endangered.species2 fills | October 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 97¢ | $4,840 | +$228 +4.7% | 9 |
| 4d |  BigRabbit | December 31 | SellYes25¢ → 27¢ | $1,259 | −$94 −7.5% | — |
| 6d | ToTheWindow2 fills | October 31 | SellNo89¢ → 97¢ | $3,101 | −$278 −9.0% | — |
| 7d | GoingGangrene | October 31 | BuyNo93¢ → 97¢ | $2,087 | +$85 +4.1% | 9 |
| 9d | Alpheo | Houthis enter Aden by October 15, 2026? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,497 | +$79 +5.3% | 4 |
| 10d | 0xd640…480c | October 31 | BuyNo89¢ → 97¢ | $1,158 | +$101 +8.8% | 11 |
| 10d | ToTheWindow2 fills | December 31 | SellNo70¢ → 74¢ | $2,457 | −$134 −5.5% | — |
| 11d | 50388131852 fills | October 31 | BuyYes13¢ → 3¢ | $2,177 | −$1,639 −75% | 29 |
| 14d | GOLADS96 | December 31 | BuyNo75¢ → 74¢ | $1,319 | −$26 −2.0% | 18 |
| 14d | endangered.species | December 31 | BuyNo75¢ → 74¢ | $1,818 | −$36 −2.0% | 21 |
| 14d | GOLADS96 | October 31 | BuyNo91¢ → 97¢ | $1,820 | +$116 +6.4% | 10 |
| 16d |  Everestpredictions | October 31 | BuyNo89¢ → 97¢ | $1,600 | +$140 +8.8% | 11 |
| 21d |  paddaa3 fills | December 31 | SellNo72¢ → 74¢ | $3,727 | −$62 −1.7% | — |
| 25d |  RememberAmalek | October 31 | SellYes17¢ → 3¢ | $2,423 | +$1,978 +82% | — |
| 25d | WarriorH | October 31 | BuyNo84¢ → 97¢ | $1,046 | +$160 +15% | 15 |
| 25d | ToTheWindow | Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,028 | −$212 −5.3% | — |
| 26d |  AlAhmeda | October 31 | BuyNo81¢ → 97¢ | $1,620 | +$316 +20% | 17 |
| 26d | AlAhmeda | Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,311 | +$122 +5.3% | 4 |
| 27d | Alpheo | October 31 | BuyNo80¢ → 97¢ | $5,041 | +$1,081 +21% | 18 |
| 27d | Alpheo | Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,213 | +$170 +5.3% | 4 |
| 27d | paddaa | October 31 | BuyYes22¢ → 3¢ | $1,200 | −$1,028 −86% | 25 |
| 28d | ToTheWindow | December 31 | BuyNo68¢ → 74¢ | $1,100 | +$84 +7.6% | 18 |
| 28d | nonkenny90 | Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,187 | +$103 +8.7% | 4 |
| 28d | paddaa2 fills | October 31 | SellNo76¢ → 97¢ | $4,765 | −$1,273 −27% | — |
| 29d | paddaa | October 31 | BuyNo77¢ → 97¢ | $3,000 | +$783 +26% | 19 |
| 31d | paddaa | December 31 | BuyNo63¢ → 74¢ | $1,700 | +$276 +16% | 24 |
| 32d | westdo | Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026? | SellYes13¢ → 0¢ | $5,070 | +$5,070 +100% | — |
| 33d | starbr | Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $12,010 | +$2,817 +23% | 4 |
| 33d | sunnyg | Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $5,741 | +$1,347 +23% | 4 |
| 33d | grassb | Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo81¢ → 100¢ | $6,862 | +$1,610 +23% | 4 |
| 33d | westdo | Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026? | BuyYes19¢ → 0¢ | $1,636 | −$1,636 −100% | 7 |
| 33d | RememberAmalek | Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026? | BuyYes16¢ → 0¢ | $1,212 | −$1,212 −100% | 5 |
Raskell6,414 shares
henos2,241 sharesRememberAmalek2,188 sharesBigRabbit1,570 sharesGammaSqueeze12344,000 shares
RogerFed2,500 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of Aden, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Houthi military forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. "Aden" refers to the following districts of Aden Governorate, Yemen: Craiter (Sirah), At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, and Al Mansura. Al Buraiqeh district (Little Aden) is excluded and entry into Al Buraiqeh alone will not qualify. "Enter" means that the Houthi military forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Aden, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Houthi entry will not qualify without actual entry being established. The entrance of Houthi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify. In the event of genuine ambiguity, this market may remain open for three days after the specified date. If Houthi entry into Aden is not established by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 27¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 27%.