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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | −1 pts | 0 pts | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $1.55K | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20h |  DEGENKHAN3 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo93¢ → 97¢ | $5,380 | +$203 +3.8% | 9 |
| 2d |  ImJustKen | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo96¢ → 97¢ | $6,557 | −$41 −0.6% | — |
| 4d | iraa33 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo96¢ → 97¢ | $4,533 | +$27 +0.6% | 7 |
| 5d |  tetrase2 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo96¢ → 97¢ | $6,621 | +$14 +0.2% | 6 |
| 8d |  Tenebrus74 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo95¢ → 97¢ | $10,207 | −$143 −1.4% | — |
| 9d | QMG-CORE5 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo93¢ → 97¢ | $11,567 | +$415 +3.6% | 8 |
| 10d | LukiB2 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 97¢ | $7,715 | +$127 +1.6% | 7 |
| 10d | QMG-SCALAR5 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo91¢ → 97¢ | $12,408 | +$786 +6.3% | 10 |
| 11d | Worse-Scenario | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo96¢ → 97¢ | $2,513 | −$12 −0.5% | — |
| 13d | enrico-vasaio | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo96¢ → 97¢ | $1,285 | +$7 +0.5% | 7 |
| 16d | TheEvilMoneyDestroyer | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo96¢ → 97¢ | $1,052 | −$9 −0.9% | — |
| 17d | Bikesarethebest | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo96¢ → 97¢ | $1,654 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 25d | Private-Barrel | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo95¢ → 97¢ | $2,008 | −$42 −2.1% | — |
| 40d | delphy2 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 97¢ | $4,000 | +$53 +1.3% | 7 |
| 60d |  zb82 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 97¢ | $18,763 | +$486 +2.6% | 8 |
| 68d | TronOG3 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 97¢ | $10,669 | +$213 +2.0% | 7 |
| 75d | Elias.Thornwell | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 97¢ | $1,029 | +$16 +1.6% | 7 |
| 77d | Rundown-Schoolhouse | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo94¢ → 97¢ | $1,010 | −$24 −2.4% | — |
| 92d | trerira | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 97¢ | $1,310 | +$28 +2.1% | 8 |
| 98d | trzorira2 | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo95¢ → 97¢ | $1,114 | +$22 +2.0% | 7 |
| 100d | QMG-CORE3 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo90¢ → 97¢ | $4,298 | −$329 −7.6% | — |
| 104d | BlindAndDeaf | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 97¢ | $2,000 | +$55 +2.8% | 8 |
| 113d | MirAsifAhr | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo94¢ → 97¢ | $1,688 | −$53 −3.1% | — |
| 115d | Private-Barrel | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 97¢ | $2,000 | +$50 +2.5% | 8 |
| 121d | Rundown-Schoolhouse2 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo92¢ → 97¢ | $4,059 | +$200 +4.9% | 9 |
| 124d |  zthunderfury | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo93¢ → 97¢ | $2,039 | +$88 +4.3% | 9 |
| 127d | Jest552 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo91¢ → 97¢ | $4,991 | +$328 +6.6% | 10 |
| 129d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b044 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo89¢ → 97¢ | $11,580 | +$1,028 +8.9% | 11 |
| 129d |  adonpoli | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 97¢ | $4,721 | +$351 +7.4% | 11 |
| 131d | insidero | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 97¢ | $1,800 | +$134 +7.4% | 11 |
| 131d | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 97¢ | $4,500 | +$335 +7.4% | 11 |
| 134d |  Ryxon212 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo92¢ → 97¢ | $4,273 | +$222 +5.2% | 9 |
| 135d | Tenebrus73 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 97¢ | $5,154 | +$365 +7.1% | 10 |
| 141d | BTCisMYlove | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo91¢ → 97¢ | $1,010 | −$59 −5.8% | — |
| 156d | 234falcon | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo91¢ → 97¢ | $1,013 | −$64 −6.3% | — |
| 161d | justme003 | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo91¢ → 97¢ | $1,229 | −$77 −6.3% | — |
| 170d |  Marco-Rubio | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 97¢ | $5,059 | +$377 +7.4% | 11 |
| 175d | 123pocky | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo91¢ → 97¢ | $2,002 | +$125 +6.3% | 10 |
| 178d | BrightStars | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo89¢ → 97¢ | $2,683 | −$218 −8.1% | — |
| 182d | Lined-Reclamation3 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo91¢ → 97¢ | $16,046 | +$1,096 +6.8% | 10 |
| 186d | TREND | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo89¢ → 97¢ | $1,208 | +$105 +8.7% | 11 |
| 188d | Mwhale | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo89¢ → 97¢ | $2,734 | −$237 −8.7% | — |
| 188d | aviato | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo90¢ → 97¢ | $3,350 | −$249 −7.4% | — |
| 196d |  VegemiteLover | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo92¢ → 97¢ | $1,318 | +$67 +5.1% | 9 |
| 196d |  spectral-mango-protocol | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo91¢ → 97¢ | $8,732 | +$548 +6.3% | 10 |
| 199d |  DaMonkeyHope | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo89¢ → 97¢ | $2,846 | −$247 −8.7% | — |
| 205d | DaMonkeyHope | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 97¢ | $2,431 | +$181 +7.4% | 11 |
| 206d | technocapital | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellYes12¢ → 3¢ | $1,247 | +$908 +73% | — |
| 215d | projectparrot | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo85¢ → 97¢ | $1,502 | −$207 −14% | — |
| 216d | MirAsifAhr | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo86¢ → 97¢ | $1,548 | +$193 +12% | 13 |
| 217d | D33pCynic4 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyYes18¢ → 3¢ | $18,795 | −$15,286 −81% | 42 |
| 218d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo87¢ → 97¢ | $2,241 | −$250 −11% | — |
| 219d |  tourists | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo87¢ → 97¢ | $1,099 | +$123 +11% | 13 |
| 219d | technocapital | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyYes15¢ → 3¢ | $5,558 | −$4,302 −77% | 36 |
| 220d | Domador2 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo86¢ → 97¢ | $6,870 | −$810 −12% | — |
| 220d | Domador2 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo87¢ → 97¢ | $8,989 | +$1,054 +12% | 13 |
| 220d |  Copezilla | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo87¢ → 97¢ | $1,305 | −$145 −11% | — |
| 220d | welcometohell2 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SellNo87¢ → 97¢ | $2,340 | −$261 −11% | — |
| 221d | Copezilla | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo88¢ → 97¢ | $1,320 | +$131 +9.9% | 12 |
| 221d | k00pa2 fills | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BuyNo87¢ → 97¢ | $4,375 | +$460 +11% | 12 |
RememberAmalek23,103 shares
gods-eye20,300 shares
Snow-White20,000 shares
Volku18,186 shares
MEPP83,353 shares95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b0428,134 shareszb819,912 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 3¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 3%.