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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flavio Bolsonaro | 100% | +60 pts | +73 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Lula | 0% | −61 pts | −74 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ronaldo Caiado | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Zema | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Renan Santos | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Pablo Marçal | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Escritor Augusto Cury | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Rui Costa Pimenta | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Clariana Barao | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Hertz Dias | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Samara | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Veterinário Wilson Grassi | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Edmilson Costa | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Candidate A | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate C | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate D | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate E | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate F | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate G | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate H | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate I | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate J | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate K | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate L | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate M | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate N | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate O | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate P | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate Q | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate R | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate S | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate T | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate U | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate V | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate W | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate X | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate Y | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Candidate Z | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12d |  Lucerys8 fills | Lula | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $16,435 | +$923 +5.6% | 11 |
| 12d | Admirable-Trust5 fills | Lula | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $8,284 | +$168 +2.0% | 11 |
| 12d | 0x3094…d680 | Flavio Bolsonaro | SellYes>99¢ | $3,070 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 12d |  themagicofcinema | Lula | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,158 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 12d | FlyingPlaty | Flavio Bolsonaro | BuyYes>99¢ | $50,891 | +$51 +0.1% | 10 |
| 12d | forgotmydinner | Flavio Bolsonaro | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 10 |
| 12d | themagicofcinema | Lula | SellNo>99¢ | $2,653 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 12d |  OgramaC | Lula | SellNo>99¢ | $1,249 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 12d |  Carlosoiu | Flavio Bolsonaro | SellYes>99¢ | $3,228 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 12d |  besofmyra | Lula | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,942 | +$2 +0.1% | 10 |
| 12d | ChillGuy2.0 | Flavio Bolsonaro | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,620 | −$10 −0.6% | — |
| 12d |  classified | Lula | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,291 | +$5 +0.4% | 10 |
| 12d | VeitMotos | Flavio Bolsonaro | SellYes>99¢ | $1,843 | −$9 −0.5% | — |
| 12d | Chakamanle | Lula | SellNo>99¢ | $1,874 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 12d |  tourists4 fills | Flavio Bolsonaro | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $20,138 | +$2,105 +10% | 13 |
| 12d | gaclfz | Lula | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,209 | +$13 +0.6% | 10 |
| 12d | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA | Lula | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,137 | +$15 +0.7% | 10 |
| 12d | themagicofcinema2 fills | Flavio Bolsonaro | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $14,729 | −$257 −1.7% | — |
| 12d | Rundown-Regard17 fills | Lula | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $35,713 | +$2,970 +8.3% | 12 |
| 12d | Poortorich3 fills | Flavio Bolsonaro | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,039 | +$112 +1.4% | 10 |
| 12d |  mrworldwide | Flavio Bolsonaro | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,300 | −$19 −0.8% | — |
| 12d | donthackme4 fills | Lula | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $5,286 | +$714 +14% | 13 |
| 12d |  mr.ozi2 fills | Flavio Bolsonaro | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $17,391 | +$631 +3.6% | 11 |
| 12d |  Flipadelphia | Lula | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $31,645 | +$291 +0.9% | 10 |
| 12d | spendingmoney2 fills | Lula | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $14,619 | +$275 +1.9% | 11 |
| 12d | Cmwhycas3 fills | Lula | BuyYes3¢ → 0¢ | $6,154 | −$6,154 −100% | 34 |
| 12d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed6 fills | Lula | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $8,451 | −$846 −10% | — |
| 12d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed9 fills | Lula | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $14,702 | +$1,488 +10% | 12 |
| 12d | themagicofcinema | Flavio Bolsonaro | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,511 | +$97 +2.1% | 11 |
| 12d |  0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e052 fills | Lula | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,163 | +$203 +3.9% | 11 |
| 12d | Lined-Billion | Flavio Bolsonaro | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $12,000 | +$237 +2.0% | 11 |
| 12d | gambler9252 fills | Flavio Bolsonaro | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $5,543 | +$358 +6.5% | 12 |
| 12d |  balthazar6 fills | Lula | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $12,121 | +$1,327 +11% | 13 |
| 12d | fgrtsdfdf | Flavio Bolsonaro | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$103 +2.6% | 11 |
| 12d | Extroverted-Tofu4 fills | Flavio Bolsonaro | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $30,407 | −$1,567 −5.2% | — |
| 12d | Ordon | Lula | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,870 | −$89 −3.1% | — |
| 12d |  JohnLKellyJr2 fills | Flavio Bolsonaro | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $13,981 | +$1,235 +8.8% | 12 |
| 12d |  asphyxia7773 fills | Flavio Bolsonaro | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $6,782 | +$173 +2.6% | 11 |
| 12d | 0x3094…d6802 fills | Flavio Bolsonaro | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,630 | +$66 +2.5% | 11 |
| 12d |  S4uron3 fills | Flavio Bolsonaro | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $6,131 | +$190 +3.1% | 11 |
| 12d |  ScottyNooo10 fills | Lula | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $96,308 | +$6,320 +6.6% | 12 |
| 12d | Cbs710 | Flavio Bolsonaro | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $19,900 | +$455 +2.3% | 11 |
| 12d | ScottyNooo7 fills | Flavio Bolsonaro | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $68,091 | +$5,432 +8.0% | 12 |
| 12d | gm-gg-gn2 fills | Flavio Bolsonaro | SellYes57¢ → 100¢ | $10,871 | −$8,129 −75% | — |
| 12d | obrigadolula | Flavio Bolsonaro | BuyNo6¢ → 0¢ | $4,872 | −$4,872 −100% | 32 |
| 12d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed7 fills | Flavio Bolsonaro | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $11,302 | +$1,616 +14% | 13 |
| 12d | almost-never7 fills | Lula | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $55,735 | +$13,651 +24% | 15 |
| 12d |  gopfan2 | Flavio Bolsonaro | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $18,189 | +$957 +5.3% | 11 |
| 12d |  HolyMoses7 | Lula | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,425 | +$75 +5.3% | 11 |
| 12d | fendop2 fills | Flavio Bolsonaro | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $14,655 | +$665 +4.5% | 11 |
| 12d |  scout | Flavio Bolsonaro | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $13,210 | +$843 +6.4% | 12 |
| 12d | Rundown-Regard13 fills | Flavio Bolsonaro | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $34,036 | +$3,594 +11% | 13 |
| 12d | 0xdd64…a9d9 | Lula | BuyYes8¢ → 0¢ | $2,500 | −$2,500 −100% | 25 |
| 12d | Extroverted-Tofu | Lula | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $18,547 | −$1,097 −5.9% | — |
| 12d | 0xf653…549c | Lula | BuyYes6¢ → 0¢ | $1,200 | −$1,200 −100% | 19 |
| 12d |  ZaiZoiBele | Lula | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,309 | +$96 +4.2% | 11 |
| 12d | ZaiZoiBele | Flavio Bolsonaro | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,428 | +$101 +4.2% | 11 |
| 12d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed5 fills | Flavio Bolsonaro | SellYes89¢ → 100¢ | $8,274 | −$975 −12% | — |
| 12d | 000di2 fills | Lula | BuyYes6¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 23 |
| 12d | tourists | Lula | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $7,654 | +$403 +5.3% | 11 |
antonioljr301 shares
amurimmu1446 shares
Papiwigga13 shares
aenews229,079 shares
urhfrhchj12312327,545 sharesA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Flavio Bolsonaro means the market gives it about 100%.