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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | −1 pts | 0 pts | 3¢ · 5¢ (3¢) | $208 | in 75d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 105d | Olcan | Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? | BuyNo89¢ → 96¢ | $1,111 | +$90 +8.1% | 11 |
| 200d |  LlamaLoco0000 | Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? | BuyYes23¢ → 4¢ | $1,208 | −$1,011 −84% | 25 |
| 204d | inventive | Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? | BuyNo79¢ → 96¢ | $1,576 | +$349 +22% | 18 |
| 284d |  MEPP | Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? | SellNo70¢ → 96¢ | $3,478 | −$1,335 −38% | — |
| 288d | ELICHOU | Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? | BuyNo78¢ → 96¢ | $1,127 | +$273 +24% | 19 |
| 291d | MEPP2 fills | Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? | BuyNo76¢ → 96¢ | $2,518 | +$652 +26% | 20 |
| 294d |  Tenebrus7 | Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? | BuyNo75¢ → 96¢ | $1,961 | +$555 +28% | 21 |
LlamaLoco000016,886 shares
CoffeeLover4,210 shares
ChetterHummin2,343 shares
.chumpo1,646 sharesMEPP14,173 shares
AngryRhino5,000 sharesTenebrus74,473 shares
studmuffin6969711 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge the Republic of Somaliland, or change its diplomatic status with the U.S. but do not formally recognize the country as a sovereign state will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 4¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 4%.