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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 60% | +12 pts | +21 pts | 59¢ · 61¢ (2¢) | $3.87K | in 257d |
| December 31 | 13% | −2 pts | −1 pts | 12¢ · 13¢ (1¢) | $2.97K | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16h |  studmuffin6969 | December 31 | BuyNo87¢ → 88¢ | $1,546 | +$9 +0.6% | 29 |
| 6d | helloblockchain | December 31 | SellNo86¢ → 88¢ | $2,322 | −$41 −1.7% | — |
| 6d | cmarx | June 30, 2027 | SellNo60¢ → 40¢ | $1,269 | +$423 +33% | — |
| 7d |  zthunderfury6 fills | December 31 | BuyNo81¢ → 88¢ | $10,507 | +$809 +7.7% | 33 |
| 10d |  tetrose2 fills | December 31 | BuyYes9¢ → 13¢ | $5,415 | +$2,472 +46% | 53 |
| 10d |  elmcap22 fills | December 31 | SellNo90¢ → 88¢ | $17,257 | +$448 +2.6% | — |
| 11d | thoodr5 fills | December 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 88¢ | $14,366 | −$963 −6.7% | 24 |
| 13d |  Parz1vaI3 fills | June 30, 2027 | BuyNo63¢ → 40¢ | $9,943 | −$3,649 −37% | 40 |
| 15d | Parz1vaI2 fills | June 30, 2027 | SellNo71¢ → 40¢ | $4,365 | +$1,909 +44% | — |
| 15d | Another-Allowance | December 31 | BuyNo95¢ → 88¢ | $3,895 | −$307 −7.9% | 23 |
| 17d | Another-Allowance2 fills | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,951 | +$69 +1.4% | 20 |
| 17d | elmcap217 fills | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $363,355 | +$5,479 +1.5% | 20 |
| 18d | thoodr3 fills | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $98,802 | +$198 +0.2% | 20 |
| 18d |  yen4u2 fills | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,081 | −$20 −0.6% | — |
| 21d | afdafdafdafdafd2 fills | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,450 | +$42 +0.7% | 20 |
| 22d | zthunderfury3 fills | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $17,083 | −$180 −1.1% | — |
| 24d | Elias.Thornwell | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,023 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 26d | JamesBonder007 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,805 | +$14 +0.3% | 20 |
| 28d |  forever123 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $11,196 | −$55 −0.5% | — |
| 28d |  allenzzz | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $3,518 | −$14 −0.4% | — |
| 28d | elmcap23 fills | December 31 | BuyNo87¢ → 88¢ | $13,588 | +$103 +0.8% | 29 |
| 29d | agagyu2 fills | June 30, 2027 | SellNo62¢ → 40¢ | $2,141 | +$749 +35% | — |
| 31d | agagyu2 fills | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,829 | −$40 −0.8% | — |
| 36d | 123pocky | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,049 | −$11 −1.0% | — |
| 40d | KiernanMeister | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $11,403 | −$136 −1.2% | — |
| 43d | tetrose2 fills | December 31 | SellNo89¢ → 88¢ | $18,515 | +$362 +2.0% | — |
| 52d | Themsnw | December 31 | SellYes5¢ → 13¢ | $1,493 | −$2,239 −150% | — |
| 56d |  usurper55 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,885 | −$56 −1.9% | — |
| 59d | tutrucks2 fills | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,297 | −$106 −2.0% | — |
| 64d | zthunderfury7 fills | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $26,511 | +$3,394 +13% | 20 |
| 66d | Tylersbathtime | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,479 | −$38 −2.5% | — |
| 66d | Scrimpy | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,424 | −$35 −2.4% | — |
| 67d | HerrieDavis | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,222 | −$25 −2.0% | — |
| 70d | Lisbon2 fills | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $9,772 | +$228 +2.3% | 20 |
| 70d |  MrNoItAll3 fills | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,694 | +$243 +5.2% | 20 |
| 70d | cmarx3 fills | June 30, 2027 | BuyNo65¢ → 40¢ | $3,628 | −$1,382 −38% | 40 |
| 70d |  ImJustKen2 fills | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $18,397 | +$1,356 +7.4% | 20 |
| 70d | ImJustKen7 fills | December 31 | BuyNo68¢ → 88¢ | $58,632 | +$16,839 +29% | 40 |
| 70d |  bernardbulletin | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,826 | +$182 +3.8% | 20 |
| 74d | wweat | December 31 | SellNo87¢ → 88¢ | $1,314 | −$8 −0.6% | — |
| 74d | third-eye | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,124 | −$57 −5.1% | — |
| 74d |  Tenebrus7 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,492 | −$193 −3.5% | — |
| 81d | plumbis2 fills | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $9,915 | +$970 +9.8% | 20 |
| 82d | Hatatavnwmf | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | BuyYes8¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 25 |
| 82d |  Mithrandir. | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,032 | −$68 −6.6% | — |
| 82d | Frozen-Spine-Boysenberry | December 31 | BuyYes16¢ → 13¢ | $5,749 | −$1,222 −21% | 54 |
| 85d | JustHereWaiting | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,790 | −$210 −7.5% | — |
| 85d | Malganis | December 31 | SellNo87¢ → 88¢ | $1,084 | −$6 −0.6% | — |
| 88d | Themsnw10 fills | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | BuyYes16¢ → 0¢ | $42,481 | −$42,481 −100% | 44 |
| 89d |  ChadStarmer | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,897 | −$121 −6.4% | — |
| 89d | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,068 | −$132 −6.4% | — |
| 89d | coali10 | December 31 | SellNo89¢ → 88¢ | $3,266 | +$55 +1.7% | — |
| 90d | allenzzz2 fills | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,295 | +$187 +5.7% | 20 |
| 91d | forever1234 fills | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $22,812 | +$1,248 +5.5% | 20 |
| 91d | forever123 | December 31 | BuyNo88¢ | $10,312 | −$59 −0.6% | 28 |
| 93d | Serene-Decision | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,023 | +$176 +8.7% | 20 |
| 93d | Parz1vaI7 fills | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $22,227 | +$4,545 +20% | 20 |
| 93d | MrNoItAll | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $6,356 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 94d | miskulinac | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,463 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 94d | Serene-Decision | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,214 | +$18 +0.1% | 20 |
ImJustKen7,966 shares
GrokEnjoyer2,222 shares
Optimus-1,000 sharesMithrandir.493 sharesTenebrus7419 sharesParz1vaI5,377 shares
StarMaster750 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 60¢ for June 30, 2027 means the market gives it about 60%.