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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 100% | +60 pts | +76 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Tarcisio de Freitas | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Fernando Haddad | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ratinho Júnior | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Renan Santos | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 0% | −59 pts | −75 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ronaldo Caiado | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Romeu Zema | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Camilo Santana | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Geraldo Alckmin | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Aldo Rebelo | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Eduardo Leite | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Tereza Cristina | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Helder Barbalho | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Augusto Cury | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Person N | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person O | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person P | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person Q | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person R | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person S | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person T | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person U | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person V | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person W | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person X | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person Y | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person Z | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12d |  NEXUS999 | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes>99¢ | $1,713 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 12d | bttnclckr | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes>99¢ | $6,226 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 12d | franciscogma | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes>99¢ | $1,671 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 12d | laolumanjuuma | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,877 | +$3 +0.1% | 10 |
| 12d | Actual-Counselling-ColumnistNew account | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes>99¢ | $1,899 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 12d | Dipper198 | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,156 | −$10 −0.9% | — |
| 12d |  eiwgny | Flávio Bolsonaro | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,296 | −$61 −0.7% | — |
| 12d | Licasamadaul | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes>99¢ | $4,289 | −$17 −0.4% | — |
| 12d | Predictandbreathe | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,519 | −$13 −0.8% | — |
| 12d |  mrworldwide | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,967 | −$32 −0.8% | — |
| 12d |  BeneGesseritVoice | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,009 | +$6 +0.6% | 10 |
| 12d |  mr.ozi5 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $13,462 | +$1,427 +11% | 13 |
| 12d |  Flipadelphia2 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes76¢ → 100¢ | $12,911 | +$4,166 +32% | 14 |
| 12d |  0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e054 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes76¢ → 100¢ | $8,421 | +$2,686 +32% | 14 |
| 12d | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e052 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyNo44¢ → 100¢ | $3,023 | +$3,867 +128% | 13 |
| 12d | Flipadelphia | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $14,695 | +$150 +1.0% | 10 |
| 12d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed4 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $7,008 | −$938 −13% | — |
| 12d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed2 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,856 | +$144 +3.7% | 11 |
| 12d | spendingmoney | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,618 | +$33 +2.0% | 11 |
| 12d | Quarzo | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,744 | +$46 +2.6% | 11 |
| 12d |  ScottyNooo7 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $22,572 | +$1,254 +5.6% | 11 |
| 12d | 657657573 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes29¢ → 100¢ | $5,748 | +$13,975 +243% | 17 |
| 12d | ScottyNooo3 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $18,598 | +$987 +5.3% | 11 |
| 12d | Renan2030 | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,130 | +$108 +5.1% | 11 |
| 12d | FIDS932 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes11¢ → 0¢ | $5,299 | −$5,299 −100% | 30 |
| 12d |  OkieDokiePeon | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,863 | +$174 +4.5% | 11 |
| 12d |  crypto-basenji | Flávio Bolsonaro | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,332 | −$68 −5.1% | — |
| 12d | StudentMoney | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $4,203 | +$146 +3.5% | 11 |
| 12d | 0x6a15…24d1 | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $5,504 | −$602 −11% | — |
| 12d | Metallic-Lobster-Manipulation | Flávio Bolsonaro | SellYes5¢ → 0¢ | $1,938 | +$1,938 +100% | — |
| 12d | Meek-Bratwurst | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,134 | −$160 −14% | — |
| 12d | 0x7773…fb59 | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellYes87¢ → 100¢ | $4,967 | −$775 −16% | — |
| 12d | 0x7773…fb59 | Flávio Bolsonaro | SellNo86¢ → 100¢ | $3,108 | −$506 −16% | — |
| 12d | Igapa | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes13¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 18 |
| 12d | ethBELIVER | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyNo13¢ → 0¢ | $1,014 | −$1,014 −100% | 18 |
| 12d | rspa6 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes34¢ → 0¢ | $12,001 | −$12,001 −100% | 17 |
| 12d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,589 | +$196 +12% | 13 |
| 12d | Jjjh776602 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | SellYes11¢ → 0¢ | $3,026 | +$3,026 +100% | — |
| 12d | donthackme2 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,516 | +$292 +12% | 13 |
| 12d |  1mDream | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellNo7¢ → 0¢ | $1,500 | +$1,500 +100% | — |
| 12d | LeRoiSoleil2 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | SellYes28¢ → 0¢ | $7,470 | +$7,470 +100% | — |
| 12d | Tiger132 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellNo10¢ → 0¢ | $2,913 | +$2,913 +100% | — |
| 12d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Flávio Bolsonaro | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,773 | −$219 −12% | — |
| 12d | Tiger13 | Flávio Bolsonaro | SellYes7¢ → 0¢ | $1,395 | +$1,395 +100% | — |
| 12d | AlphaBetaGamma2357 | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $2,159 | +$381 +18% | 14 |
| 12d |  ThanksGivingTurkey10012 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | SellNo34¢ → 0¢ | $5,813 | +$5,813 +100% | — |
| 12d | dromedaryy5 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyYes29¢ → 100¢ | $22,931 | +$54,830 +239% | 27 |
| 12d | dromedaryy | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyNo39¢ → 100¢ | $1,354 | +$2,118 +156% | 19 |
| 12d | Rundown-Regard | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes67¢ → 0¢ | $1,348 | −$1,348 −100% | 18 |
| 12d | 657657578 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | SellYes74¢ → 0¢ | $39,278 | +$39,278 +100% | — |
| 12d | Victor.oak2 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes70¢ → 0¢ | $2,199 | −$2,199 −100% | 18 |
| 12d | vic73 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes69¢ → 0¢ | $5,973 | −$5,973 −100% | 10 |
| 12d | abed1 | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes72¢ → 0¢ | $5,339 | −$5,339 −100% | 17 |
| 12d | Acrobatic-Perfection2 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes73¢ → 0¢ | $2,449 | −$2,449 −100% | 10 |
| 12d | melchior1248 | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyNo73¢ → 0¢ | $1,277 | −$1,277 −100% | 17 |
| 12d | gambler9254 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyNo70¢ → 0¢ | $5,408 | −$5,408 −100% | 12 |
| 12d | Tiger133 fills | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyYes69¢ → 0¢ | $13,893 | −$13,893 −100% | 15 |
| 12d | HenriqueAmerica. | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyNo68¢ → 0¢ | $1,132 | −$1,132 −100% | 18 |
| 13d |  scottilicious7 fills | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | BuyNo81¢ → 0¢ | $32,603 | −$32,603 −100% | 10 |
| 13d | I-love-pizzas | Flávio Bolsonaro | BuyNo40¢ → 100¢ | $1,358 | +$2,063 +152% | 19 |
scottilicious45,374 sharesA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva means the market gives it about 100%.