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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico (D) | 63% | — | −1 pts | 62¢ · 63¢ (1¢) | $47.7K | in 18d |
| Ken Paxton (R) | 38% | — | — | 37¢ · 38¢ (1¢) | $111K | in 18d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4m | HowBoutThemCowboys | Ken Paxton (R) | BuyYes38¢ | $1,000 | −$13 −1.3% | 11 |
| 2h |  peasant | Ken Paxton (R) | BuyNo62¢ → 63¢ | $15,587 | +$126 +0.8% | 21 |
| 2h | WarriorH4 fills | Ken Paxton (R) | BuyNo65¢ → 63¢ | $8,228 | −$301 −3.7% | 16 |
| 2h | hfv | Ken Paxton (R) | BuyNo63¢ | $3,182 | −$25 −0.8% | 12 |
| 5h |  moonlight2020 | Ken Paxton (R) | SellNo61¢ → 63¢ | $3,050 | −$75 −2.5% | — |
| 7h | WarriorH | Ken Paxton (R) | SellNo61¢ → 63¢ | $1,122 | −$28 −2.5% | — |
| 10h | dimuto38 | Ken Paxton (R) | BuyNo62¢ → 63¢ | $1,116 | +$9 +0.8% | 11 |
| 11h | dimuto38 | James Talarico (D) | BuyYes63¢ | $3,150 | −$25 −0.8% | 15 |
| 13h |  SDTrading2 fills | James Talarico (D) | BuyNo38¢ | $7,434 | −$183 −2.5% | 27 |
| 17h | SDTrading2 fills | Ken Paxton (R) | BuyYes38¢ | $10,697 | −$172 −1.6% | 23 |
| 17h | hfv2 fills | Ken Paxton (R) | BuyYes38¢ | $3,684 | −$53 −1.4% | 16 |
| 17h |  nigiri993 fills | Ken Paxton (R) | BuyYes38¢ | $4,076 | −$54 −1.3% | 16 |
| 17h | nigiri993 fills | James Talarico (D) | BuyNo38¢ | $3,689 | −$49 −1.3% | 19 |
| 20h | blunderbot | James Talarico (D) | SellNo37¢ → 38¢ | $2,734 | −$37 −1.4% | — |
| 1d | neutralwave238 fills | Ken Paxton (R) | BuyYes37¢ → 38¢ | $42,637 | +$161 +0.4% | 39 |
| 1d |  Japan2 fills | James Talarico (D) | BuyYes63¢ | $2,683 | −$21 −0.8% | 15 |
| 1d | f0afjr | Ken Paxton (R) | BuyYes38¢ | $3,000 | −$39 −1.3% | 15 |
| 1d | jeb.2 fills | James Talarico (D) | BuyNo38¢ | $2,000 | −$26 −1.3% | 15 |
| 1d |  Do-Not-Redeem3 fills | James Talarico (D) | SellYes62¢ → 63¢ | $40,594 | −$135 −0.3% | — |
| 2d | scalpemall | James Talarico (D) | BuyNo38¢ | $1,900 | −$25 −1.3% | 15 |
| 2d | anoin123 | James Talarico (D) | SellNo37¢ → 38¢ | $5,789 | −$78 −1.4% | — |
| 2d |  Krang2 fills | Ken Paxton (R) | BuyYes35¢ → 38¢ | $5,000 | +$299 +6.0% | 18 |
| 2d |  BiDiFakePolls4 fills | James Talarico (D) | BuyYes63¢ | $4,946 | −$1 −0.0% | 18 |
| 2d | geoffmar3 fills | Ken Paxton (R) | BuyYes38¢ | $3,674 | −$37 −1.0% | 16 |
| 2d | neutralwave232 fills | James Talarico (D) | BuyNo36¢ → 38¢ | $14,431 | +$461 +3.2% | 37 |
| 3d | pieped | Ken Paxton (R) | SellNo62¢ → 63¢ | $4,030 | −$32 −0.8% | — |
| 3d | sasnax | Ken Paxton (R) | BuyYes38¢ | $1,000 | −$13 −1.3% | 11 |
| 3d | purplegatto5 fills | James Talarico (D) | BuyYes65¢ → 63¢ | $28,199 | −$1,007 −3.6% | 30 |
| 3d | fluxzy | Ken Paxton (R) | BuyYes38¢ | $1,262 | −$17 −1.3% | 11 |
| 3d | supersmard | Ken Paxton (R) | SellNo62¢ → 63¢ | $10,849 | −$87 −0.8% | — |
| 3d |  0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05 | Ken Paxton (R) | SellNo62¢ → 63¢ | $6,228 | −$22 −0.4% | — |
| 3d | SitsToPee | James Talarico (D) | BuyNo37¢ → 38¢ | $1,110 | +$15 +1.4% | 12 |
| 3d |  mrworldwide | Ken Paxton (R) | SellNo63¢ | $2,268 | +$18 +0.8% | — |
| 3d | mrworldwide | James Talarico (D) | SellYes63¢ | $3,024 | +$24 +0.8% | — |
| 3d | ClauseAI2 fills | Ken Paxton (R) | BuyYes38¢ | $10,400 | −$87 −0.8% | 23 |
| 3d | foobarb | James Talarico (D) | BuyNo36¢ → 38¢ | $4,856 | +$165 +3.4% | 22 |
| 3d | Saltyballs | James Talarico (D) | SellNo35¢ → 38¢ | $1,195 | −$85 −7.1% | — |
| 3d | SitsToPee | Ken Paxton (R) | SellNo64¢ → 63¢ | $6,069 | +$142 +2.3% | — |
| 4d | Monopoly_Money | Ken Paxton (R) | BuyNo65¢ → 63¢ | $3,250 | −$125 −3.8% | 12 |
| 4d | imnewhere123 | Ken Paxton (R) | BuyYes36¢ → 38¢ | $6,544 | +$243 +3.7% | 20 |
| 4d | DualDelta | James Talarico (D) | SellYes64¢ → 63¢ | $2,065 | +$48 +2.3% | — |
| 4d |  StarMaster | James Talarico (D) | SellNo36¢ → 38¢ | $1,080 | −$45 −4.2% | — |
| 4d |  DirkDiggler67 | James Talarico (D) | BuyYes63¢ | $2,230 | −$18 −0.8% | 14 |
| 4d |  zxdfbdfgngcxv | James Talarico (D) | BuyYes63¢ | $1,918 | −$15 −0.8% | 13 |
| 4d |  Bperil4 fills | James Talarico (D) | BuyYes60¢ → 63¢ | $5,000 | +$218 +4.4% | 18 |
| 4d | fluxzy | Ken Paxton (R) | SellYes35¢ → 38¢ | $1,011 | −$72 −7.1% | — |
| 4d |  Carlosoiu3 fills | James Talarico (D) | SellYes62¢ → 63¢ | $10,006 | −$98 −1.0% | — |
| 4d |  .ethguy3 fills | Ken Paxton (R) | BuyNo63¢ | $5,632 | −$70 −1.2% | 14 |
| 4d |  foodenjoyer | Ken Paxton (R) | BuyNo63¢ | $25,131 | −$199 −0.8% | 28 |
| 5d | yeeTradez | James Talarico (D) | BuyYes63¢ | $6,209 | −$49 −0.8% | 20 |
| 5d | Other-Championship2 fills | Ken Paxton (R) | BuyYes40¢ → 38¢ | $6,000 | −$326 −5.4% | 18 |
| 5d |  Wickier2 fills | Ken Paxton (R) | BuyNo63¢ | $25,200 | −$200 −0.8% | 28 |
| 5d | 0x261c…827e | James Talarico (D) | BuyYes63¢ | $2,970 | −$24 −0.8% | 15 |
| 5d | blunderbot2 fills | James Talarico (D) | BuyNo44¢ → 38¢ | $2,189 | −$310 −14% | 15 |
| 5d | DonkDaWarrior | Ken Paxton (R) | BuyYes38¢ | $1,064 | −$14 −1.3% | 11 |
| 5d | StarMaster | James Talarico (D) | BuyNo37¢ → 38¢ | $1,110 | +$15 +1.4% | 12 |
| 5d | Bperil3 fills | James Talarico (D) | SellYes62¢ → 63¢ | $8,360 | −$131 −1.6% | — |
| 5d | Spade75 | Ken Paxton (R) | BuyYes37¢ → 38¢ | $1,000 | +$14 +1.4% | 11 |
| 5d |  LiquidatedDegen3 fills | James Talarico (D) | SellYes53¢ → 63¢ | $6,812 | −$1,295 −19% | — |
| 5d | purplegatto | James Talarico (D) | BuyNo37¢ → 38¢ | $1,896 | +$26 +1.4% | 15 |
mr.ozi55,000 shares
WordleAddict48,400 sharesfoodenjoyer40,000 sharesBiDiFakePolls27,954 shares
tetrose27,262 sharesSDTrading21,447 sharesThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 63¢ for James Talarico (D) means the market gives it about 63%.