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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2029 | 22% | — | +3 pts | 21¢ · 22¢ (1¢) | — | in 1171d |
| December 31, 2028 | 17% | — | +1 pts | 16¢ · 17¢ (1¢) | — | in 806d |
| December 31, 2027 | 8% | — | — | 7¢ · 8¢ (1¢) | $308 | in 440d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d |  Lolakis | December 31, 2028 | BuyYes16¢ → 17¢ | $2,118 | +$66 +3.1% | 25 |
| 4d | Lolakis | December 31, 2029 | BuyYes19¢ → 22¢ | $1,957 | +$258 +13% | 24 |
| 9d |  MEPP | December 31, 2027 | SellNo92¢ → 93¢ | $5,212 | −$28 −0.5% | — |
| 12d | jcsberger | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo93¢ | $1,163 | −$6 −0.5% | 25 |
| 13d |  rewardbots | December 31, 2027 | SellYes7¢ → 8¢ | $1,481 | −$106 −7.1% | — |
| 13d |  Dragontree | December 31, 2027 | SellYes8¢ | $3,137 | +$288 +9.2% | — |
| 13d |  bigdihhh888 | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo93¢ | $1,128 | −$6 −0.5% | 25 |
| 14d |  Car | December 31, 2029 | BuyNo81¢ → 79¢ | $8,094 | −$250 −3.1% | 20 |
| 14d | WarriorH | December 31, 2028 | BuyNo85¢ → 84¢ | $1,299 | −$16 −1.2% | 20 |
| 14d | Car | December 31, 2028 | BuyNo84¢ | $8,400 | −$50 −0.6% | 20 |
| 14d | Car4 fills | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo91¢ → 93¢ | $23,255 | +$290 +1.2% | 26 |
| 14d | MEPP | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo88¢ → 93¢ | $4,929 | +$252 +5.1% | 28 |
| 14d | NoSteinNoGate | December 31, 2029 | BuyYes20¢ → 22¢ | $1,000 | +$75 +7.5% | 20 |
| 14d | Lolakis | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo86¢ → 93¢ | $1,560 | +$118 +7.6% | 29 |
| 14d | Dragontree | December 31, 2027 | BuyYes9¢ → 8¢ | $3,347 | −$497 −15% | 49 |
| 14d | rewardbots | December 31, 2027 | BuyYes7¢ → 8¢ | $1,176 | +$84 +7.1% | 41 |
| 17d | MirAsifAhr | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo93¢ | $1,432 | −$8 −0.5% | 25 |
| 27d |  DFK | December 31, 2027 | SellNo92¢ → 93¢ | $7,360 | −$40 −0.5% | — |
| 29d | DFK2 fills | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo93¢ | $7,440 | −$40 −0.5% | 25 |
| 29d |  StarMaster | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo93¢ | $1,860 | −$10 −0.5% | 25 |
| 29d |  0xdc3E831cad | December 31, 2027 | BuyNo92¢ → 93¢ | $4,149 | +$23 +0.5% | 25 |
Lolakis10,313 shares
DEGENKHAN499 sharesCar11,790 shares
ArmageddonRewardsBilly2,000 shares
taut-dogwood1,000 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents OpenAI. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 22¢ for December 31, 2029 means the market gives it about 22%.