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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | — | −1 pts | 6¢ · 8¢ (2¢) | — | in 76d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyNo93¢ | $2,457 | −$0 −0.0% | 20 | |
| 2d | Shabby-Duplexer | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyNo93¢ | $1,132 | −$0 −0.0% | 20 |
| 4d | Dinosaurus07 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SellNo91¢ → 93¢ | $1,247 | −$27 −2.2% | — |
| 7d | jawadam | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyNo93¢ | $1,098 | +$6 +0.5% | 20 |
| 9d | VvVvV | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SellNo91¢ → 93¢ | $1,282 | −$28 −2.2% | — |
| 16d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 93¢ | $2,834 | +$93 +3.3% | 20 | |
| 19d | zve3da4 fills | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyNo85¢ → 93¢ | $16,000 | +$1,504 +9.4% | 20 |
| 24d | ppacific5 fills | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyNo91¢ → 93¢ | $21,136 | +$568 +2.7% | 20 |
| 24d | marketminder2 fills | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyNo92¢ → 93¢ | $3,000 | +$36 +1.2% | 20 |
| 31d | anoin123 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SellNo89¢ → 93¢ | $4,815 | −$216 −4.5% | — |
| 32d | ppacific2 fills | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SellNo90¢ → 93¢ | $10,473 | −$384 −3.7% | — |
| 33d | alwaysOn5 fills | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyNo85¢ → 93¢ | $11,917 | +$1,147 +9.6% | 20 |
| 36d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 93¢ | $1,800 | +$60 +3.3% | 20 | |
| 38d | alwaysOn2 fills | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SellNo88¢ → 93¢ | $5,327 | −$299 −5.6% | — |
| 41d | gamblito | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SellNo86¢ → 93¢ | $3,389 | −$273 −8.1% | — |
| 42d | tabakur | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SellNo87¢ → 93¢ | $1,473 | −$108 −7.3% | — |
| 42d | berny-bot | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SellNo86¢ → 93¢ | $1,032 | −$84 −8.1% | — |
| 46d | NeH | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyNo88¢ → 93¢ | $4,456 | +$253 +5.7% | 20 |
| 48d | aannggg | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyNo88¢ → 93¢ | $13,095 | +$814 +6.2% | 20 |
| 49d | 881112 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyNo86¢ → 93¢ | $1,649 | +$134 +8.1% | 20 |
| 49d | kiv2d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SellNo85¢ → 93¢ | $1,359 | −$128 −9.4% | — |
| 59d | valar999 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyNo86¢ → 93¢ | $1,707 | +$139 +8.1% | 20 |
| 69d | vladius34 fills | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyNo74¢ → 93¢ | $5,000 | +$1,294 +26% | 20 |
| 86d | WzapS | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SellNo77¢ → 93¢ | $7,514 | −$1,619 −22% | — |
| 93d | Eager-Populist | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyYes19¢ → 7¢ | $1,333 | −$842 −63% | 22 |
| 94d | WzapS2 fills | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyNo81¢ → 93¢ | $6,000 | +$864 +14% | 20 |
| 104d | Romkos7 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SellYes18¢ → 7¢ | $1,080 | +$660 +61% | — |
| 106d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SellYes23¢ → 7¢ | $1,465 | +$1,024 +70% | — | |
| 107d | cooldisplayname | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyNo76¢ → 93¢ | $1,200 | +$268 +22% | 20 |
| 108d | RTKYA3 fills | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SellYes25¢ → 7¢ | $7,584 | +$5,484 +72% | — |
| 113d | LPTT2 fills | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyNo74¢ → 93¢ | $6,100 | +$1,520 +25% | 20 |
| 118d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyYes30¢ → 7¢ | $1,912 | −$1,471 −77% | 22 | |
| 122d | kiv2d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyNo72¢ → 93¢ | $1,151 | +$336 +29% | 20 |
| 123d | alpaca | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyYes29¢ → 7¢ | $1,500 | −$1,138 −76% | 22 |
| 126d | andr | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyNo73¢ → 93¢ | $2,300 | +$622 +27% | 20 |
| 133d | h00ch2 fills | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SellYes27¢ → 7¢ | $6,246 | +$4,653 +75% | — |
| 134d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SellNo65¢ → 93¢ | $13,482 | −$5,663 −42% | — | |
| 134d | controls | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SellNo69¢ → 93¢ | $1,149 | −$400 −35% | — |
| 135d | Bartalamif | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyNo72¢ → 93¢ | $5,000 | +$1,479 +30% | 20 |
| 138d | IRL.hedge | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SellNo70¢ → 93¢ | $1,050 | −$345 −33% | — |
| 143d | gamblito | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyNo72¢ → 93¢ | $2,000 | +$593 +30% | 20 |
| 145d | Tall-Suspension | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyNo67¢ → 93¢ | $1,427 | +$554 +39% | 20 |
| 146d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SellNo68¢ → 93¢ | $1,046 | −$375 −36% | — | |
| 152d | taincap | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyNo75¢ → 93¢ | $1,677 | +$403 +24% | 20 |
| 153d | nok1 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SellYes27¢ → 7¢ | $4,867 | +$3,607 +74% | — |
| 153d | LetMeBeYourValentine | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyNo70¢ → 93¢ | $2,217 | +$728 +33% | 20 |
| 154d | Myway | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SellYes30¢ → 7¢ | $2,401 | +$1,846 +77% | — |
| 154d | novgan | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyNo68¢ → 93¢ | $2,089 | +$768 +37% | 20 |
| 155d | LetMeWinMore | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SellNo67¢ → 93¢ | $1,024 | −$406 −40% | — |
| 157d | h00ch2 fills | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyYes34¢ → 7¢ | $7,000 | −$5,575 −80% | 26 |
| 157d | nok1 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyYes39¢ → 7¢ | $7,020 | −$5,760 −82% | 24 |
| 157d | 1756 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyYes39¢ → 7¢ | $1,696 | −$1,388 −82% | 21 |
| 158d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SellYes41¢ → 7¢ | $3,655 | +$3,031 +83% | — | |
| 158d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyYes39¢ → 7¢ | $5,977 | −$4,913 −82% | 24 | |
| 158d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyNo62¢ → 93¢ | $1,401 | +$701 +50% | 20 | |
| 159d | 0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA9604 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SellNo66¢ → 93¢ | $1,091 | −$446 −41% | — |
| 159d | RTKYA4 fills | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyYes45¢ → 7¢ | $12,448 | −$10,513 −84% | 22 |
| 160d | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SellYes30¢ → 7¢ | $1,165 | +$894 +77% | — | |
| 160d | 0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA9604 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyNo68¢ → 93¢ | $1,353 | +$497 +37% | 20 |
| 160d | Myway | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BuyYes38¢ → 7¢ | $3,000 | −$2,445 −81% | 23 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 7¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 7%.