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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | 74% | — | — | 73¢ · 74¢ (1¢) | $5.25K | in 18d |
| Sen. Dan Sullivan | 26% | — | −1 pts | 25¢ · 26¢ (1¢) | $10.3K | in 18d |
| Ann Diener | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 18d |
| Dustin Darden | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 18d |
| Richard Grayson | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 18d |
| Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 18d |
| David Leslie | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 18d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10h | dimuto38 | Mary Peltola | BuyYes74¢ | $2,220 | −$15 −0.7% | 27 |
| 20h | anoin123 | Sen. Dan Sullivan | SellYes25¢ → 26¢ | $1,810 | −$36 −2.0% | — |
| 1d | WarriorH2 fills | Sen. Dan Sullivan | BuyNo73¢ → 75¢ | $5,376 | +$98 +1.8% | 28 |
| 1d | 0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8 | Sen. Dan Sullivan | BuyNo74¢ → 75¢ | $43,774 | +$296 +0.7% | 27 |
| 2d | rancidpus2 fills | Mary Peltola | BuyNo27¢ | $3,800 | −$70 −1.9% | 36 |
| 2d | anoin123 | Mary Peltola | SellNo26¢ → 27¢ | $3,239 | −$62 −1.9% | — |
| 2d | OilWizard | Mary Peltola | BuyYes74¢ | $1,110 | −$8 −0.7% | 25 |
| 3d |  Wailkss | Sen. Dan Sullivan | BuyNo74¢ → 75¢ | $1,036 | +$7 +0.7% | 17 |
| 3d |  mrworldwide | Mary Peltola | SellYes73¢ → 74¢ | $3,491 | −$24 −0.7% | — |
| 3d | mrworldwide | Sen. Dan Sullivan | SellNo73¢ → 75¢ | $3,504 | −$72 −2.1% | — |
| 3d | ClauseAI2 fills | Sen. Dan Sullivan | BuyYes28¢ → 26¢ | $7,031 | −$673 −9.6% | 38 |
| 4d |  mountaindewd | Sen. Dan Sullivan | BuyNo73¢ → 75¢ | $2,990 | +$61 +2.1% | 28 |
| 4d | brte2 fills | Sen. Dan Sullivan | BuyNo73¢ → 75¢ | $4,380 | +$90 +2.1% | 28 |
| 4d | fbet | Sen. Dan Sullivan | BuyNo73¢ → 75¢ | $1,057 | +$22 +2.1% | 17 |
| 4d |  gopfan2 | Sen. Dan Sullivan | BuyNo72¢ → 75¢ | $5,111 | +$177 +3.5% | 29 |
| 5d |  Do-Not-Redeem2 fills | Sen. Dan Sullivan | BuyYes25¢ → 26¢ | $13,209 | +$519 +3.9% | 42 |
| 5d |  tetrase | Mary Peltola | BuyYes73¢ → 74¢ | $1,473 | +$10 +0.7% | 28 |
| 6d | lug | Sen. Dan Sullivan | SellNo73¢ → 75¢ | $1,569 | −$32 −2.1% | — |
| 6d | WarriorH | Mary Peltola | SellYes72¢ → 74¢ | $1,395 | −$29 −2.1% | — |
| 6d | Robust-Exhaust | Mary Peltola | SellYes72¢ → 74¢ | $7,200 | −$150 −2.1% | — |
| 6d |  0xdc3E831cad | Mary Peltola | BuyNo27¢ | $6,473 | −$120 −1.9% | 38 |
| 7d |  Fuentes31 | Mary Peltola | SellYes73¢ → 74¢ | $1,754 | −$12 −0.7% | — |
| 8d | bnbaltz | Mary Peltola | BuyYes74¢ | $3,000 | −$20 −0.7% | 27 |
| 9d | afdafdafdafdafd | Mary Peltola | BuyYes74¢ | $11,100 | −$75 −0.7% | 27 |
| 9d | 0x0577…081f | Sen. Dan Sullivan | BuyNo73¢ → 75¢ | $2,966 | +$60 +2.0% | 28 |
| 9d | grinder1011 | Sen. Dan Sullivan | BuyNo73¢ → 75¢ | $2,920 | +$60 +2.1% | 28 |
| 10d | grinder1011 | Mary Peltola | BuyYes74¢ | $1,110 | −$8 −0.7% | 25 |
| 12d | JAMJAMJAM4 | Mary Peltola | BuyYes73¢ → 74¢ | $1,359 | +$9 +0.7% | 28 |
| 12d |  seal7 | Mary Peltola | SellYes72¢ → 74¢ | $1,138 | −$24 −2.1% | — |
| 14d | mrworldwide | Mary Peltola | BuyYes71¢ → 74¢ | $1,525 | +$54 +3.5% | 29 |
| 14d | pantomime | Sen. Dan Sullivan | BuyNo72¢ → 75¢ | $8,788 | +$305 +3.5% | 29 |
| 14d | seal7 | Mary Peltola | BuyYes71¢ → 74¢ | $1,123 | +$40 +3.5% | 27 |
| 14d | purplegatto | Mary Peltola | BuyNo28¢ → 27¢ | $1,089 | −$58 −5.4% | 27 |
| 18d | 0xfaa0…139c | Sen. Dan Sullivan | SellNo71¢ → 75¢ | $1,158 | −$57 −4.9% | — |
| 21d |  0xwordjnn | Sen. Dan Sullivan | SellNo71¢ → 75¢ | $1,996 | −$98 −4.9% | — |
| 21d | 0xe4a2…4763 | Mary Peltola | BuyYes73¢ → 74¢ | $2,412 | +$17 +0.7% | 28 |
| 21d |  nnimrodd | Mary Peltola | SellYes72¢ → 74¢ | $2,038 | −$42 −2.1% | — |
| 22d |  Valen9 | Sen. Dan Sullivan | SellNo73¢ → 75¢ | $1,455 | −$30 −2.1% | — |
| 22d | Valen9 | Mary Peltola | SellYes73¢ → 74¢ | $3,764 | −$26 −0.7% | — |
| 23d | JosephTrump | Mary Peltola | SellYes73¢ → 74¢ | $1,095 | −$8 −0.7% | — |
| 23d |  GollumGekko | Mary Peltola | SellYes74¢ | $1,480 | +$10 +0.7% | — |
| 23d |  0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e053 fills | Mary Peltola | BuyNo26¢ → 27¢ | $6,259 | +$213 +3.4% | 38 |
| 23d | lomneivan | Mary Peltola | SellYes72¢ → 74¢ | $17,615 | −$316 −1.8% | — |
| 23d |  aenews2 | Sen. Dan Sullivan | BuyYes25¢ → 26¢ | $6,250 | +$125 +2.0% | 39 |
| 23d |  Chungvicular | Sen. Dan Sullivan | BuyYes25¢ → 26¢ | $1,875 | +$38 +2.0% | 28 |
| 23d | 11122 | Sen. Dan Sullivan | BuyYes22¢ → 26¢ | $1,760 | +$280 +16% | 27 |
| 24d | wan1233 fills | Mary Peltola | BuyNo22¢ → 27¢ | $9,441 | +$2,068 +22% | 42 |
| 24d |  FastPaws | Mary Peltola | BuyYes79¢ → 74¢ | $1,185 | −$83 −7.0% | 23 |
| 24d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Sen. Dan Sullivan | SellNo79¢ → 75¢ | $1,045 | +$60 +5.7% | — |
| 24d | Scalpoor | Mary Peltola | BuyNo20¢ → 27¢ | $3,027 | +$984 +32% | 36 |
| 24d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Mary Peltola | SellYes80¢ → 74¢ | $1,600 | +$130 +8.1% | — |
| 24d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Sen. Dan Sullivan | BuyNo82¢ → 75¢ | $1,312 | −$120 −9.1% | 16 |
| 24d | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05 | Mary Peltola | BuyYes81¢ → 74¢ | $4,056 | −$381 −9.4% | 23 |
| 24d |  AllByMyseIf | Sen. Dan Sullivan | BuyNo78¢ → 75¢ | $1,498 | −$67 −4.5% | 19 |
| 24d | Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Mary Peltola | BuyYes79¢ → 74¢ | $1,580 | −$110 −7.0% | 24 |
| 25d | ClaudeIntern | Mary Peltola | BuyYes78¢ → 74¢ | $1,983 | −$114 −5.8% | 25 |
| 25d |  Lucerys | Sen. Dan Sullivan | BuyNo76¢ → 75¢ | $1,316 | −$27 −2.0% | 18 |
| 25d | 0xb6ce…895d | Mary Peltola | BuyYes78¢ → 74¢ | $1,179 | −$68 −5.8% | 23 |
| 25d |  scottilicious3 fills | Mary Peltola | BuyYes76¢ → 74¢ | $72,066 | −$2,641 −3.7% | 26 |
| 25d | VerilyWinningly | Sen. Dan Sullivan | BuyNo74¢ → 75¢ | $1,060 | +$7 +0.7% | 17 |
scottilicious94,640 sharesgopfan217,355 shares
Outsid3rTrading10,000 shares0xdc3E831cad16,275 shares0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e058,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 74¢ for Mary Peltola means the market gives it about 74%.